For some context: Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery forced to shut down after reported drone attackEven if Iran’s offensive threats appear to be diminishing, they are trying to make the most out of it by hitting back at where it hurts most. As a reminder, Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery is the largest oil refinery in the Middle East. As such, this will just continue with the ongoing disruption to the oil market – not least with the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The strike above is also confirmed by the Saudi defense ministry, saying that there was “an attempted attack” on Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery. Adding that “the initial evaluation shows it was carried out by a drone”. The good news though is that “no damage” is being reported but this will just keep operations shut down for longer, even if as a precaution.WTI crude oil remains up by 2.3% on the day to $76.50 currently. The volatile moves continue in the oil market but at the balance, they are siding with a more bullish push. WTI crude oil is up nearly 14% now on the week, threatening a break of the June 2025 highs. From earlier: Oil prices resume climb despite Trump’s assurance on Strait of Hormuz This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery is a significant development that could ripple through the oil markets. With geopolitical tensions already high, any disruption to Saudi oil production can lead to immediate price spikes. Traders should be aware that even if Iran’s threats seem to be waning, their actions still have the potential to impact supply chains and prices. Look at the broader context: oil prices have been volatile, and this incident could exacerbate that volatility. If the market perceives a risk of further attacks or retaliatory actions, we might see a bullish trend in crude oil futures. Keep an eye on key levels; if Brent crude breaks above its recent highs, we could see a rush of buying. Conversely, if prices stabilize, it might indicate that the market is pricing in a quick resolution. The flip side is that if this attack leads to a swift response from Saudi Arabia or its allies, we could see a rapid de-escalation, which might bring prices back down. Watch for any statements from Aramco or OPEC regarding production levels in the coming days, as they will be crucial for gauging market sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Brent crude prices closely; a break above recent highs could trigger significant buying interest in the oil market.

Prior -0.3%That’s a notable bump to start the year and even if you exclude energy prices (+1.3%) from the equation, euro area producer prices were still up 0.6% in January. The breakdown shows increases across the board in the likes of intermediate goods (+1.0%), capital goods (+0.6%), and durable consumer goods (+0.8%). That is all only marginally offset by a decline in prices for non-durable consumer goods (-0.2%) on the month.But when compared to the same month last year, euro area producer prices are down 2.1%. That being said, it owes much to base effects as energy prices are the biggest drag. The year-on-year reading for energy prices show a 8.9% decline. So if you strip that out, producer prices are actually seen up 1.2% in year-on-year terms. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Euro area producer prices are showing a surprising uptick, and here’s why that matters: The 0.6% rise in January, even excluding energy prices, indicates robust demand across various sectors, particularly in intermediate and capital goods. This could signal a strengthening economy, which might lead to tighter monetary policy from the ECB. Traders should keep an eye on how this affects the euro against the dollar, especially if the ECB hints at rate hikes. If the euro strengthens, it could impact forex positions significantly, especially for those trading EUR/USD. But there’s a flip side—if inflation persists, it could lead to economic slowdowns elsewhere, particularly in export-driven markets. Watch for reactions in commodity prices, as rising production costs could squeeze margins. Key levels to monitor include the EUR/USD at recent highs; a break above could signal further bullish momentum. Keep an eye on upcoming ECB meetings for any shifts in tone regarding interest rates, as that could be a game-changer for both forex and equities. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the EUR/USD closely; a break above recent highs could indicate bullish momentum driven by rising producer prices.

If anything, Wall Street can take heart in the bounce from yesterday even if dip buyers fell short of a stronger recovery momentum. As highlighted earlier, the fall yesterday looked to be teeing up a firmer break of the 100-day moving average for the S&P 500. However, we’re seeing some pushback now as US futures turn positive on the day.S&P 500 futures were down by as much as 0.7% earlier in the session but are now rallying back to be up 0.2% on the day. That’s quite the turnaround in terms of sentiment. Looking at big tech, Nvidia shares are up over 1% in pre-market with Tesla shares also sizing up similar gains at the open. Of note, both are seeing rebounds off their respective 200-day moving averages so that is something to take note of.The US-Iran conflict remains in focus and while there are technical suggestions for a potential downside break, it’s not as convincing just yet:”In terms of the technicals, there is a chink in the armor now when viewing the S&P 500. I would argue it’s not as clear as saying that this is the start of a strong correction lower. However, there is an opportunity for sellers to step in and take their shot. But at the end of the day, it all hinges on tech shares more than anything else.”As mentioned in the linked post, the Nasdaq might be the one holding the key and there is a line in the sand that sellers must cross to really convince of a stronger breakdown in US stocks:”The index has been struggling below its 100-day moving average (red line) since February. However, dip buyers have been hanging in there in not letting price action sink further towards really testing the November low or the 200-day moving average (blue line) just yet. As such, those two levels will be the key line in the sand in sizing up big tech sentiment in Wall Street. In essence, that’s the floor to the bull market run since May last year. If that gives way, there’s going to be quite a reckoning for US stocks in the short-term.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The S&P 500’s recent struggle around the 100-day moving average is a crucial signal for traders right now. While dip buyers attempted to step in, the lack of a strong recovery suggests caution. A firm break below this moving average could trigger further selling pressure, impacting not just equities but also correlated markets like forex, where risk sentiment plays a significant role. Traders should keep an eye on volume and momentum indicators to gauge whether this bounce is genuine or just a temporary reprieve. If the index fails to reclaim the 100-day moving average, it could lead to a broader market pullback, affecting sectors sensitive to economic sentiment. Here’s the thing: if you’re trading the S&P, watch for a decisive close below this level. It could signal a shift in market dynamics, prompting a reassessment of long positions across the board. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the S&P 500’s performance around the 100-day moving average; a close below could trigger significant selling pressure across markets.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold has given back all the gains it made during the US–Iran-driven rally, which might seem surprising at first. But this kind of move isn’t unusual. In periods of intense risk aversion, gold often falls alongside equities as financial conditions tighten, and traders are forced to deleverage to meet margin calls.It looks like the worst of the panic is behind us, and gold has started to gradually recover some of those losses. At the same time, the US–Iran conflict is pushing energy prices higher, which is feeding into rising inflation expectations. As long as tensions persist, that backdrop should continue to provide support for gold.The main downside risk for gold would be a de-escalation. That would likely trigger another selloff, as the market shifts its focus back to economic data, which has been showing clear strength. We also have the NFP report on Friday. If tensions ease before then and the jobs data comes in strong, it could be a double whammy for gold.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold erased all the gains from the US-Iran led rally and bounced around the 5,000 level as dip-buyers stepped in. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price probed below the key support zone around the 5,100 level but eventually bounced back above it. We can expect the buyers to continue to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for another break to pile in for a drop into the 4,600 level next. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the recent pullback and a resistance zone around the 5,250 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a break below the 5,100 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. The market focus remains on the US-Iran war, so the data might not matter much. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s recent drop, erasing gains from the US-Iran tensions, highlights a critical shift in market sentiment. This isn’t just a gold story; it reflects broader financial conditions tightening, pushing traders to liquidate positions across the board. In times of heightened risk aversion, gold can behave counterintuitively, moving in tandem with equities as investors scramble for liquidity. This dynamic can create opportunities for savvy traders who recognize that gold’s decline may not reflect its long-term value but rather short-term market mechanics. Keep an eye on the correlation between gold and major indices; if equities continue to falter, gold could see further pressure. Watch for key support levels in gold around recent lows, as breaking these could trigger additional selling. Conversely, if equities stabilize, gold might reclaim some ground, making it essential to monitor both asset classes closely for potential reversals or confirmations of trend. Traders should also consider the implications for related assets like silver and mining stocks, which often follow gold’s lead. The interplay between these markets could offer additional insights into where liquidity is flowing and where potential rebounds might occur. 📮 Takeaway Watch gold’s support levels closely; a break could signal further declines, while stabilization in equities may provide a buying opportunity.

The New Zealand Dollar extends its losses for the second straight day amid a firm US Dollar courtesy of the Middle East conflict, which fueled fears of higher inflation sparked by the jump in Oil prices. The NZD/USD trades at 0.5889, down 0.80%. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The NZD/USD’s drop to 0.5889 signals deeper issues for the Kiwi amid rising oil prices and a strong US Dollar. With the ongoing Middle East conflict, traders should brace for potential inflationary pressures that could further strengthen the USD. This dynamic often leads to a flight to safety, making the US Dollar more attractive compared to riskier currencies like the New Zealand Dollar. If oil prices continue to rise, we could see the NZD/USD test lower support levels, possibly around 0.5800. Keep an eye on inflation data and geopolitical developments, as they could trigger volatility in both the forex and commodity markets. On the flip side, if the conflict de-escalates or oil prices stabilize, we might see a rebound in the NZD. However, the current trend suggests caution, especially for those holding long positions in NZD/USD. Watch for any significant news that could impact oil prices or US economic indicators, as these will likely dictate the next moves in this pair. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the NZD/USD closely; a break below 0.5800 could signal further downside, especially if oil prices remain elevated.

United States Total Vehicle Sales came in at 15.8M, above forecasts (15.2M) in February 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Total vehicle sales hitting 15.8M in February is a bullish indicator for consumer spending and economic health. For traders, this number surpassing forecasts suggests a stronger-than-expected demand, which could lead to increased consumer confidence. This uptick might influence sectors like automotive stocks and related commodities, potentially driving prices higher. If this trend continues, it could also impact interest rates, as stronger sales may prompt the Fed to reconsider its monetary policy stance. Keep an eye on automotive stocks and ETFs, as they could see upward momentum in the coming weeks. Additionally, watch for any shifts in consumer sentiment indicators that could further validate this trend. A key level to monitor would be the performance of major automakers’ stocks; if they break above recent resistance levels, it could signal a broader rally in the sector. 📮 Takeaway Watch automotive stocks closely; a sustained move above recent resistance could signal a bullish trend following February’s strong vehicle sales.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that China’s ‘Two Sessions’ will set key macro targets and publish a new five-year plan lasting to 2030, with implications for the Yuan. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s upcoming ‘Two Sessions’ could shake up the Yuan and global markets. With macro targets and a new five-year plan on the table, traders need to pay attention. The Yuan’s stability is crucial, especially as it relates to trade dynamics and capital flows. If the government sets aggressive growth targets, we might see a stronger Yuan, which could impact commodities and currencies tied to China. Conversely, if targets are conservative, expect volatility. Keep an eye on the USD/CNY pair; any significant moves could ripple through forex markets, affecting everything from gold to emerging market currencies. Here’s the thing: while many are focused on the immediate implications, the real story is how these policies will shape China’s economic landscape over the next few years. Watch for shifts in sentiment among institutional investors, as they might react strongly to the new plan. The key levels to monitor are the psychological thresholds around 6.5 and 7.0 in USD/CNY, as these could signal larger trends in the Yuan’s valuation. 📮 Takeaway Watch the USD/CNY pair closely; key levels around 6.5 and 7.0 could signal major shifts post-‘Two Sessions’.

USD/JPY rose about 0.15% on Tuesday, pushing close to 157.60 as the pair continued to grind higher following last week’s sharp rally. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight USD/JPY’s recent climb near 157.60 signals potential momentum shifts in forex trading. The pair’s 0.15% rise on Tuesday follows a significant rally last week, suggesting that traders are responding to broader market sentiment, possibly influenced by U.S. economic data or shifts in monetary policy. If USD/JPY breaks decisively above 158.00, it could trigger further bullish sentiment, attracting momentum traders. On the flip side, if it fails to hold above current levels, we might see a pullback, especially if risk-off sentiment returns. Keep an eye on the 157.00 support level; a drop below could indicate a reversal. Additionally, watch for any upcoming U.S. economic reports that could impact the dollar’s strength, as they might provide the catalyst for the next move in this pair. 📮 Takeaway Monitor USD/JPY closely; a break above 158.00 could signal further upside, while a drop below 157.00 may indicate a reversal.

South Korea Industrial Output Growth came in at -1.9%, below expectations (0.5%) in January 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight South Korea’s industrial output dropping 1.9% is a red flag for traders: here’s why. This significant miss against expectations of 0.5% growth signals potential weakness in the economy, which could ripple through related markets, particularly in Asia. For forex traders, this data could impact the South Korean won, especially if the Bank of Korea reacts with policy adjustments. Look for volatility in the USD/KRW pair as traders reassess their positions. The broader implications could also affect commodities tied to South Korean manufacturing, like semiconductors and electronics, which are critical to global supply chains. But here’s the flip side: if this data prompts stimulus measures or interest rate cuts, it could lead to a short-term bounce in the won. Keep an eye on the 1,200 level for USD/KRW; a break above could indicate further weakness in the won. Watch for any comments from the Bank of Korea in the coming days for clues on their next moves. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD/KRW pair closely; a break above 1,200 could signal further weakness in the South Korean won amid industrial output concerns.