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Figure Heloc 📰 DMK AI Summary Roundhill Investments has filed with US regulators to launch six ETFs tied to event contracts predicting the outcome of the 2028 US presidential election. These ETFs include both Republican and Democratic outcomes for the presidency, Senate, and House. However, the issuer warns that investors in the losing outcome ETFs could face significant losses, with their invested capital possibly decreasing to near zero. 💬 DMK Insight This move by Roundhill to introduce election prediction ETFs marks a potentially groundbreaking development in the investment landscape. While these ETFs offer a unique opportunity for investors to speculate on political outcomes, they also come with significant risks. The warning of potential near-total loss for investors in ETFs tied to losing outcomes underscores the high-stakes nature of these speculative investments. It’s essential for investors to carefully consider the risks involved and exercise caution when navigating such uncharted territory in the market. 📊 Market Content These election prediction ETFs not only reflect investors’ interest in political outcomes but also highlight the growing intersection between financial markets and prediction markets. As regulatory landscapes evolve, particularly in the realm of event contracts like those linked to political elections, investors must stay informed and adaptable. The favorable stance of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission towards prediction markets further underscores the increasing legitimacy of these platforms in the eyes of regulators and market participants alike.
Roundhill’s election prediction ETFs are ‘potentially groundbreaking': Analyst
The ETF issuer warned that investors who pick the fund tied to the losing US presidential outcome could lose nearly all invested capital. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Investors need to tread carefully with this ETF tied to the presidential outcome—risk of total loss is real. With the political landscape shifting, this warning highlights the volatility that can arise from election cycles. If the ETF is heavily correlated with the outcome, traders should be prepared for significant swings, especially if polls indicate a tightening race. The potential for a drastic market reaction is high, particularly in the days leading up to the election. Keep an eye on sentiment indicators and volume spikes, as these could signal shifts in trader positioning. Here’s the kicker: while some may see this as a chance to capitalize on volatility, the risk of losing nearly all invested capital can’t be overstated. If you’re considering a position, set strict stop-loss orders and monitor key levels closely. Watch for any major news that could sway public opinion or market sentiment, as these could trigger rapid price movements. 📮 Takeaway Monitor sentiment and set stop-loss orders if trading this ETF; the risk of total loss is significant ahead of the election.
Senators ask Bessent to probe $500M UAE stake in Trump-linked WLFI
Elizabeth Warren and Andy Kim call on Treasury’s Scott Bessent to review a UAE-backed investment in the Trump-linked crypto firm over national security concerns. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight National security concerns over a UAE-backed investment in a Trump-linked crypto firm could shake market confidence. With ETH currently at $2,060.55, this scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers might lead to increased regulatory pressures on crypto firms, especially those with foreign ties. Traders should be aware that any negative developments could trigger a sell-off, particularly if institutional investors react to perceived risks. Watch for ETH’s response around key support levels, as a breach below $2,000 could signal deeper bearish sentiment. Conversely, if the market views this as a non-issue, ETH could bounce back, especially if it holds above $2,100 in the coming days. Keep an eye on related assets like Bitcoin, as they often move in tandem with Ethereum, and any regulatory news could impact the broader crypto market significantly. 📮 Takeaway Watch ETH closely; a drop below $2,000 could signal increased bearish sentiment, while holding above $2,100 may indicate resilience amid regulatory concerns.
Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE and GDP, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ, Flash PMIs, UK and Canada CPI
Sun: Japanese Prelim. GDP (Q4)Mon: US Holiday (Washington’s Birthday/Presidents Day); Eurogroup Meeting; Swedish Unemployment (Jan), EZ Industrial Production (Dec)Tue: RBA Minutes (Feb); UK Unemployment/Wages (Dec), German ZEW (Feb), US ADP Weekly, Canadian CPI (Jan), NY Fed (Feb), Chinese Lunar New Year (Hong Kong markets closed from 17th-19th Feb)Wed: RBNZ Announcement, FOMC Minutes (Jan); Japanese Trade Balance (Jan), Australian Wage Price Index (Q4), UK CPI (Jan), US NY Fed (Feb), Industrial Production (Jan)Thu: Japanese CPI (Jan), Australian Employment (Jan), US Trade Balance (Dec), Weekly/Continuing Claims, Philadelphia Fed (Feb), Pending Home Sales (Jan), EZ Flash Consumer Confidence (Feb), New Zealand Trade Balance (Jan)Fri: Hong Kong markets return from Lunar New Year; ECB EZ Indicator of Negotiated Wages; UK Retail Sales (Jan), PSNB (Jan), EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Feb), Canadian Retail Sales (Jan),US PCE/GDP (Dec/Q4)Japanese Prelim GDP (Sun): Q4 Q/Q GDP is forecast to have risen 0.4%, with Y/Y growth seen at 1.6%. ING expects a more modest 0.3% Q/Q expansion, driven by a rebound in construction as the impact of temporary safety regulations fades and firmer exports supported by robust global semiconductor demand. January trade data highlight continued strength in chip exports, with favourable calendar effects and a low base likely to boost headline export growth. The impact of supplementary budget spending is expected to become more evident in Q1 2026 rather than Q4, while no material effect from China-Japan disputes is anticipated in the Q4 data. Stable political conditions and strong chip demand are also seen underpinning manufacturing and services activity.Canadian CPI (Tue): The Canadian inflation report will help shape expectations for BoC policy. The BoC is currently on hold but is keeping its options open. Recent minutes said the policy rate is on the stimulative side of the Bank’s estimated neutral range, and policymakers agreed that holding rates at the current level was conditional on the economy evolving in line with their outlook, warning that heightened uncertainty has broadened the range of possible outcomes. Members said it was difficult to predict the timing and direction of the next policy move and would continue to monitor risks closely, standing ready to respond if the outlook changes. On inflation, the BoC noted that escalating tensions could disrupt global supply chains and weigh on activity, posing both upside and downside risks to prices. On the USMCA review, it said this posed downside risks to growth and could pull inflation lower if the economy weakens, though higher import costs, potential counter-tariffs and supply chain disruptions could lift inflation. Amid the uncertainty, the BoC agreed to maintain optionality in setting policy. In a speech, Governor Macklem stressed the bank must be careful not to misdiagnose economic weakness, saying policy should not attempt to offset lost supply, particularly as the Canadian economy undergoes structural change. Money markets are pricing no change in rates for the remainder of the year.RBA Minutes (Tue):The RBA will release minutes of its meeting earlier this month, when it raised the Cash Rate for the first time in more than two years by 25bps to 3.85%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. The bank said inflation was likely to remain above target for some time and that broad measures of wage growth continued to be strong. It added that labour market conditions were somewhat tight and capacity pressures greater than previously assessed and noted uncertainty around the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation, and the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive. The RBA also published its latest Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, stating that underlying inflation was higher than expected and that GDP growth had continued to pick up, with private demand surprisingly strong. It raised its trimmed mean and CPI inflation forecasts and lifted its December 2025 GDP projection but lowered its year-end GDP forecasts for December 2026 and December 2027. The forecasts assumed the Cash Rate at 4.2% in December 2026 and 4.3% in December 2027. Governor Bullock said at the press conference that the pulse of inflation was too strong and that high inflation hurt all Australians, adding that the Board believed inflation would take longer to return to target and could not allow it to get away.UK Unemployment/Wages (Tue):November’s Unemployment rate came in above consensus at 5.1% (exp. 5.0%), with the overall skew from the series a dovish one, as while the hotter-than-expected wage figure was a hawkish impulse, it is a familiar one. This week’s series is expected to feature a steady unemployment rate and a decline in payrolls. As a reminder, the February BoE MPR saw the peak unemployment forecast raised to 5.3% from the previous, and current, rate of 5.1%; i.e. the MPC expects a further deterioration in the jobs market. Note, given the remarks by BoE’s Bailey in the last statement, wages are perhaps worth watching even closer than normal, after he caveated his increased confidence on the path of wage inflation by adding it is less clear when the inflation downside will feed into wages; i.e., a marked drop in wages could tilt him to a March cut vs current pricing for April. However, overall, the series will inform but is unlikely to determine the timing of the next BoE cut, with the week’s inflation series (see below) more pertinent in that deliberation.RBNZ Announcement (Wed):The RBNZ will hold its first policy meeting of the year next week, where it is widely expected to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%, with money markets pricing a 98% probability of no change. The meeting will be the first under Governor Breman, who took office in December. At its previous meeting in November, the RBNZ cut rates by 25bps, its third consecutive reduction, bringing cumulative easing to 325bps since it began its rate-cutting cycle in August 2024. The bank left the door open to further moves, saying future changes to the OCR would depend on how the outlook for medium-term inflation and the economy evolves, although its projections implied a pause through 2026. The RBNZ noted that annual consumer inflation rose to 3%
“CLARITY Crypto Bill Crucial for Market Stability Amidst Volatility: Insights on Impact of 2026 US Midterm Elections”
📰 DMK AI Summary United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted the importance of passing the CLARITY crypto market structure bill before the 2026 US midterm elections to boost market sentiment in the midst of ongoing volatility. Delaying the bill until after the elections could significantly lower its chances of approval, according to Bessent. The stalling of the bill due to concerns raised by industry leaders has had a negative impact on the crypto industry. 💬 DMK Insight Passing the CLARITY bill could provide much-needed clarity to the market during a time of extreme price fluctuations and uncertainty. With the potential shift in political power expected in the 2026 midterm elections, there is a looming threat that the current pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration may be reversed if not solidified into law. Investors and traders are closely watching the developments surrounding this bill as it could have a profound impact on the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. 📊 Market Content The outcome of the 2026 midterm elections could have far-reaching implications for the crypto market, depending on which party gains control of Congress. Traders and investors are closely monitoring the political landscape as any shift in power could influence the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the US, potentially shaping the market sentiment and investment decisions in the near future.
Bitcoin Is Down Bad, But Hasn't Yet Hit Its 'Ultimate Bear Market Bottom': Analysts
Despite its 45% fall since its October peak, Bitcoin has not yet found its bear market bottom, according to a new report from CryptoQuant. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Bitcoin’s 45% drop since October is a red flag for traders: it signals ongoing bearish sentiment. The report from CryptoQuant suggests that we haven’t hit the bottom yet, which means traders should brace for more volatility. This decline could trigger further selling pressure, especially if key support levels fail to hold. Watch the $25,000 mark closely; a break below could accelerate downward momentum. On the flip side, if Bitcoin manages to stabilize above this level, it might attract bargain hunters looking for a potential reversal. Keep an eye on broader market trends as well—if equities continue to struggle, crypto could follow suit. In the coming weeks, monitor trading volumes and sentiment indicators to gauge whether this bearish trend is losing steam or if we’re in for a longer downturn. The next few days could be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory. 📮 Takeaway Watch for Bitcoin’s price action around $25,000; a break below could lead to increased selling pressure.
Can Meme Coins Power a Senate Bid? Virginia’s Mark Moran Says Yes
Mark Moran is using a meme coin on Solana to elevate his U.S. Senate bid, rallying degens against a pro-crypto Democrat in Virginia. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Mark Moran’s Senate campaign leveraging a meme coin on Solana could shake up crypto sentiment. This move highlights the growing intersection of politics and crypto, especially as candidates use digital assets to engage younger voters. With SOL currently at $88.03, traders should watch for potential volatility as political narratives can shift market sentiment quickly. If Moran gains traction, it could lead to increased interest in Solana-based projects, impacting not just SOL but also related tokens and DeFi platforms on the network. However, there’s a flip side; if this strategy backfires or fails to resonate, it could lead to a sell-off in meme coins, affecting liquidity and market confidence. Keep an eye on SOL’s support levels around $85 and resistance near $90. A break below support could signal a bearish trend, while a rally past resistance might attract more speculative trading. Political developments and social media buzz around Moran’s campaign will be key indicators to monitor in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch SOL’s support at $85 and resistance at $90; political developments could drive volatility in the coming weeks.