Societe Generale’s LatAm strategists describe money markets pricing a 50 bp Selic cut in March, while their economist Dev Ashish expects a smaller 25 bp move as the BCB remains cautious on inflation. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Brazilian central bank’s cautious stance on inflation is crucial for traders right now. With money markets pricing in a 50 basis point cut to the Selic rate in March, but the BCB’s economist suggesting a more conservative 25 basis point reduction, there’s a potential disconnect that could create volatility. If the BCB opts for the smaller cut, it could strengthen the BRL against major currencies, impacting forex positions. Traders should watch the inflation data leading up to the March meeting, as any signs of rising prices could sway the BCB’s decision. Additionally, this situation could ripple through emerging market assets, especially those correlated with Brazilian equities and commodities. Keep an eye on the 5.5% level for the Selic rate, as any deviation from expectations could trigger significant market reactions. 📮 Takeaway Watch for inflation data ahead of the March Selic decision; a smaller cut could strengthen the BRL and impact related forex positions.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Moses Lim highlight that Taiwan’s January exports jumped 69.9% year-on-year, the strongest in 16 years, boosted by base effects and robust demand for advanced semiconductors used in AI. Export growth was broad-based across electronics, chemicals and base metals. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Taiwan’s export surge of 69.9% in January is a game changer for traders focused on tech and commodities. This impressive growth, the highest in 16 years, signals strong global demand, particularly for advanced semiconductors crucial for AI applications. Traders should note that this broad-based export increase across electronics, chemicals, and base metals could lead to upward pressure on related stocks and commodities. For instance, companies heavily invested in semiconductor production might see bullish momentum, while those in the chemical sector could also benefit. However, it’s worth considering that such explosive growth might be partly due to base effects from last year’s lower figures. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming economic indicators from Taiwan and the broader Asia-Pacific region to gauge sustainability. Watch for any shifts in semiconductor demand, as a slowdown could impact not just Taiwan’s economy but also global tech stocks. Key levels to monitor include the semiconductor index and related ETFs, especially if they start breaking out of recent ranges. 📮 Takeaway Watch Taiwan’s semiconductor demand closely; a sustained trend could boost tech stocks, while any slowdown might trigger sell-offs in related sectors.

Joby Aviation (JOBY) continues to trend lower today, down roughly 3% as we move closer to the company’s upcoming earnings release in about two weeks. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Joby Aviation’s 3% dip ahead of earnings is a red flag for traders: With earnings just two weeks away, this downward trend could signal investor anxiety about the company’s performance. Historically, stocks often experience volatility as earnings reports approach, especially if there are concerns about revenue or guidance. If JOBY fails to meet market expectations, we could see a sharper sell-off, particularly if it breaks below recent support levels. Traders should watch for any shifts in volume or sentiment as we approach the earnings date, as these can provide clues about potential price action. On the flip side, if JOBY surprises to the upside, it could lead to a rapid recovery, especially if it breaks resistance levels established in the past month. Keep an eye on the broader market context too; if tech stocks are under pressure, JOBY might face additional headwinds regardless of its earnings results. Watch for key levels around the $5 mark, as a breach could trigger further selling pressure, while a bounce could signal a buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on volatility. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Joby Aviation closely as it approaches the $5 support level; a breach could signal further declines ahead of earnings.

TD Securities expects China’s January CPI to slow, with its forecast at 0.3% year-on-year versus 0.4% consensus, driven by sharply easing food inflation after recent surges. Weak services price pressures reflect tepid demand. 🔗 Source

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng assesses Thailand’s 2026 election outcome as supportive for political stability and policy continuity. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Thailand’s 2026 election outcome could stabilize markets, but here’s why traders should be cautious. Political stability often leads to improved investor sentiment, which could boost Thai assets. However, the real story is how this stability translates into actionable policies. Traders need to watch for specific policy announcements post-election that could impact sectors like tourism and exports, key drivers of the Thai economy. If the new government prioritizes infrastructure or foreign investment, we might see a rally in related stocks or the Thai baht. But don’t overlook potential risks; any signs of dissent or ineffective governance could quickly reverse gains. Keep an eye on the USD/THB exchange rate for volatility, especially around the election date. A strong dollar could pressure Thai exports, while a weaker dollar might bolster them. In short, while the election outcome seems positive, the market’s reaction will hinge on the government’s ability to implement effective policies. Watch for key economic indicators in the months following the election for clearer signals. 📮 Takeaway Monitor USD/THB closely around the 2026 election; policy decisions post-election will significantly impact Thai assets and market sentiment.

United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock up to 13.4M in February 6 from previous -11.1M 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Crude oil stocks just surged to 13.4M, and here’s why that matters: This dramatic increase from the previous -11.1M signals a potential shift in supply dynamics that traders need to watch closely. A build in inventories often indicates weaker demand or oversupply, which could pressure prices downward in the short term. If you’re trading oil, keep an eye on the $70 resistance level; a failure to break above could lead to further declines. But don’t overlook the broader context—geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions could still swing prices unexpectedly. If demand picks up or if there are production cuts, we could see a quick reversal. Watch for any news from OPEC meetings or major economic indicators that could affect demand forecasts. The next few weeks will be crucial, so stay nimble and ready to adjust your positions based on evolving supply-demand signals. 📮 Takeaway Monitor crude oil prices around the $70 level; a sustained drop could signal further declines, while geopolitical factors may create volatility.

The Euro retreats during the North American session edges below the 1.1900 figure against the Greenback as some Federal Reserve officials pushed back against further rate cuts, even though US Retail Sales data, disappointed traders. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Euro’s drop below 1.1900 against the Dollar signals a critical shift in sentiment. With Federal Reserve officials resisting further rate cuts, traders need to reassess their positions. The recent US Retail Sales data may have disappointed, but the Fed’s stance suggests a more hawkish outlook, which could strengthen the Dollar further. This dynamic is crucial for day traders and swing traders who rely on currency pairs for volatility. Watch for potential support levels around 1.1850; if breached, it could trigger a more significant sell-off in the Euro. Conversely, if the Euro manages to reclaim the 1.1900 level, it could indicate a temporary bounce back, but the underlying pressure from the Fed’s comments remains a key factor. Here’s the thing: while many traders might be focused solely on the retail data, the Fed’s narrative is what truly drives the market. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators and Fed speeches for further clues on monetary policy direction. 📮 Takeaway Watch the 1.1850 support level closely; a break could lead to further Euro weakness against the Dollar.

UOB’s Jester Koh notes that Singapore’s 4Q25 GDP was revised sharply higher, lifting full-year 2025 growth to 5.0% and prompting an upgrade of the bank’s 2026 GDP forecast to 3.6%. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Singapore’s GDP upgrade is a big deal for traders, especially in the forex market. With 4Q25 GDP revised sharply higher, the full-year growth forecast for 2025 now sits at 5.0%. This positive economic outlook could strengthen the Singapore dollar (SGD) against major currencies, particularly if the trend continues into 2026 with an upgraded forecast of 3.6%. Traders should watch for potential bullish momentum in SGD pairs, especially against the USD and JPY. If the SGD strengthens, it could impact export-driven sectors and related equities. However, it’s worth noting that while this growth is promising, traders should remain cautious. A sudden shift in global economic conditions or unexpected monetary policy changes could dampen this optimism. Keep an eye on key economic indicators and central bank communications for any signs of volatility. For now, monitor the SGD/USD pair closely; a break above recent resistance levels could signal a stronger bullish trend. 📮 Takeaway Watch the SGD/USD pair closely; a break above recent resistance could indicate a bullish trend driven by Singapore’s upgraded GDP forecasts.

In a pre-taped interview with Fox Business, US President Donald Trump made a variety of statements, including his belief that a two-percentage-point drop in interest rates would wipe out the US national deficit. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s claim about interest rates and the national deficit raises eyebrows, especially for traders watching economic indicators closely. A two-percentage-point drop in interest rates could indeed stimulate borrowing and spending, but it’s overly simplistic to think it would eliminate the deficit. Interest rates influence market liquidity and can impact asset prices across the board, including equities and commodities. If traders believe the Fed might consider such a drastic cut, we could see a short-term rally in risk assets. However, the broader context is crucial. The Fed’s current stance is more focused on combating inflation than stimulating growth, and any hints of rate cuts could signal economic weakness rather than strength. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases, particularly inflation metrics and employment figures, as these will guide the Fed’s decisions. Watch for key resistance levels in major indices; a break above those could indicate a bullish sentiment fueled by rate cut speculation. In this environment, it’s worth considering how sectors like tech and consumer discretionary might react, as they typically benefit from lower rates. But be cautious—if the market perceives rate cuts as a sign of economic distress, we could see a sharp reversal. 📮 Takeaway Monitor upcoming inflation and employment data closely; a shift in Fed policy could impact asset prices significantly.

The Australian Dollar is holding a strong uptrend on the daily chart, with price trading well above both the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6797 and the 200 EMA at 0.6611, confirming a firmly bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows since the late November swing low near 0.6421. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Australian Dollar’s solid uptrend signals potential for further gains, but watch for volatility. Currently trading above the 50 EMA at 0.6797 and the 200 EMA at 0.6611, the AUD/USD is in a strong bullish phase characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This trend indicates that buyers are firmly in control, which could attract more retail and institutional interest. However, with the recent strength, traders should be cautious of potential pullbacks, especially if the price approaches the 50 EMA. A close below this level could trigger profit-taking and shift sentiment. It’s also worth noting that the broader market context, including commodity prices and risk sentiment, can impact the AUD. If commodity prices remain strong, the AUD could continue to benefit. Keep an eye on the 0.6797 level as a critical support point; a break below could signal a shift in momentum. For now, the bullish trend remains intact, but traders should prepare for possible corrections. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 50 EMA at 0.6797; a close below this level could indicate a shift in momentum for the AUD.