📰 DMK AI Summary Bitcoin faced resistance above $69,000 and experienced a drop in price as market participants debated short-term outlooks. Traders predicted potential new lows despite a brief weekend rebound. Some pointed out two CME futures gaps, including one at $84,000, as targets for BTC price movement. 💬 DMK Insight The recent rejection above $69,000 suggests ongoing pressure on Bitcoin’s price, with warnings of further downside from analysts. The focus on CME futures gaps indicates potential price levels to watch, reflecting uncertainty in the market sentiment. Traders are advised to proceed with caution and closely monitor developments to make informed decisions. 📊 Market Content Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain higher prices aligns with broader concerns about market volatility and potential macroeconomic factors influencing cryptocurrencies. Traders may be looking to futures market indicators for insights into short-term price movements, highlighting the importance of staying informed and adaptable in the ever-changing crypto landscape.
CFTC expands payment stablecoin criteria to include national trust banks
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) revised a previous staff letter to reflect the regulations in the GENIUS stablecoin framework. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The CFTC’s update on the GENIUS stablecoin framework is a game-changer for regulatory clarity. Stablecoins have been under scrutiny, and this revision could signal a more favorable environment for compliant projects. Traders should watch how this impacts liquidity and trading volumes in the stablecoin market, especially for assets tied to the GENIUS framework. If institutional players perceive this as a green light, we could see increased adoption, which might ripple through related markets like crypto exchanges and DeFi platforms. Keep an eye on the broader regulatory landscape, as this could set a precedent for future stablecoin regulations. On the flip side, any missteps or backlash from traditional finance could lead to volatility. Traders should monitor sentiment closely and be prepared for potential price swings in major stablecoins as the market digests this news. 📮 Takeaway Watch for changes in stablecoin liquidity and trading volumes, especially around the GENIUS framework, as this could signal new opportunities or risks.
A look at the US earnings calendar for Feb 9-13
We are through the biggest market cap names on earnings and it was dramatic, with 10% moves in some of the world’s biggest companies. Next week switches the focus back to some smaller companies but many with good insight on the real economy, which is tough to pin down right now.MondayThe week starts off relatively quiet, which is typical. The main event for the broader market will come after the closing bell with the semiconductor sector.Before Open: The main one I’m watching is Cleveland-Cliffs and colorful CEO Lourcenco Goncalves though we will also see reports from asset manager Apollo and software firm Monday.com. The private equity and software spaces are in tough right now.After Close: The spotlight is on Onsemi. This will be a key read for the automotive and industrial chip market, sectors that have been more volatile than the AI-centric data center trade. Also watching Goodyear for a pulse on auto parts/commodities.TuesdayActivity ramps up significantly with a mix of blue-chip consumer staples and high-growth tech.Before Open: The big macro tell here is Coca-Cola. It is the ultimate proxy for global consumer pricing power and inflation tolerance. We saw Pepsi cut prices on snacks last week. If volumes are down, it’s a warning sign for the consumer. We also get Marriott, which will give us the latest read on high-end travel demand, and CVS Health for the healthcare services sector. Datadog will provide a check-up on the cloud observability/SaaS space.After Close: A lot of eyes will be on Ford. The legacy auto sector is battling margin compression and the EV transition; their guidance will set the tone for industrial sentiment. We also get Lyft (gig economy/consumer mobility) and Zillow, which acts as a direct proxy for the housing market’s health. Robinhood will offer insight into retail trading engagement.WednesdayThis is likely the most important day of the week from a macro perspective, covering everything from fast food to networking infrastructure.Before Open: McDonald’s is the headliner. Similar to Coke, this is a critical gauge of the lower-to-middle-income consumer. Weakness here often points to broader spending fatigue and last quarter the company really emphasized the k-shaped economy. Shopify will be a massive mover for the e-commerce sector and often drags stocks like Amazon or Etsy with it. We also get T-Mobile for telecom and Kraft Heinz for food inflation data.After Close: Cisco is the one to watch. As a bellwether for enterprise tech spending (beyond just AI), their forward guidance is often a leading indicator for business capex. We also have huge volatility potential in AppLovin and the lithium space with Albemarle.ThursdayThursday keeps the momentum going with a heavy focus on growth, crypto, and semiconductor capital equipment.Before Open: We get a look at the industrial/aerospace side with Howmet Aerospace. The consumer discretionary sector gets another check with Crocs and Birkenstock, while John Deere (often correlated with CNH Industrial/Ag) or similar machinery names are usually looked for around this time, though strictly from this list, we are watching Brookfield for real assets.After Close: This is a heavy tech session. Applied Materials (AMAT) is the standout. It is critical for confirming that the AI hardware build-out is trickling down to the equipment suppliers. Coinbase will likely move in tandem with Bitcoin’s recent price action. We also have DraftKings for the online gambling/consumer discretionary trade and Expedia for travel booking trends.FridayAs usual, the week winds down with a lighter schedule, but there are still a few names to watch.Before Open: Energy infrastructure giant Enbridge reports, which is a key dividend staple and energy proxy. We also get Moderna for the biotech sector and Magna, which serves as another data point for the auto supply chain following Ford and Onsemi earlier in the week. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Earnings season just delivered wild swings, and here’s why that matters: big names saw 10% moves, indicating heightened volatility. As we shift focus to smaller companies next week, traders should keep an eye on their earnings reports for insights into the real economy. These smaller firms often reflect consumer sentiment and spending trends more accurately than larger corporations. If they report strong earnings, it could signal resilience in the economy, potentially boosting market confidence. Conversely, weak results might amplify existing fears about economic slowdown. Watch for key sectors like retail and consumer goods, which are likely to provide critical data points. Also, keep an eye on the overall market sentiment; if smaller companies start to show weakness, it could lead to a broader market pullback. The next week is crucial for gauging the economic landscape, so be ready to adjust your positions based on these earnings outcomes. 📮 Takeaway Next week’s earnings from smaller companies could reveal crucial insights about the economy—watch for shifts in sentiment and adjust your strategies accordingly.
Newsquawk Week Ahead: US NFP and CPI, Japanese Election, UK GDP and China Inflation
Sun: Japanese Average Cash Earnings, Japanese Snap ElectionMon: Swiss Consumer Confidence (Jan), Mexican Inflation (Jan), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), Australian Household Spending (Dec)Tue: EIA STEO; Norwegian prelim. CPI (Jan), US NFIB (Jan), Weekly ADP, ECI (Q4), Export/Import Prices (Dec)Wed: BoC Minutes (Jan), OPEC MOMR; ECB Wage Tracker (post-meeting); Chinese Inflation (Jan), Norwegian GDP (Q4), US NFP (Jan)Thu: IEA OMR, EU Informal Leaders Retreat; Japanese PPI (Jan), UK GDP Prelim. (Q4), GDP (Dec), US Weekly/Continuing Claims; Existing Home Sales (Jan), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Jan)Fri: Indian WPI (Jan), Swiss CPI (Jan), EZ Prelim. Employment (Q4), GDP 2nd (Q4), US CPI (Jan)Japanese Average Cash Earnings (Sun): Japan’s December average cash earnings data is due on Sunday, with consensus expecting headline wages to accelerate to 1.0% Y/Y from 0.5%. The November release showed a sharp slowdown in wage growth, largely reflecting a steep fall in one-off bonus payments outside peak payout periods, leaving real wages deeply negative amid still-elevated inflation. ING expects a clearer rebound in December, supported by strong winter bonuses and recent easing in inflation, which should help real cash earnings turn positive. The desk says a sustained improvement in wage dynamics would bolster the BoJ’s confidence that a wage-price cycle is taking hold, supporting the case for further rate hikes from Q2.Japanese Snap Election (Sun): Japanese PM Takaichi called a snap election for the 8th of February. Aiming to capitalise on her high approval rating and extend LDPʼs slim majority in the Lower House, which would allow her to pass policy with less friction. A recent poll (Feb 2) via Asahi shows that the ruling coalition could secure more than 300 seats, far surpassing the 233 required for a simple majority; putting the LDP-JIP partnership on course to potentially secure a two-thirds ‘super’ majority (310 seats). Note, should the LDP-JIP secure a two-thirds majority, it can override the Upper House to pass legislation. Exit polls are typically released within minutes of polls closing (20:00 JST / 11:00 GMT / 06:00 EST), while a large share of single-member district results are reported within the following 2–4 hours. Under a LDP victory, the immediate market reaction is expected to see a steepening of the JGB yield curve, as it would potentially give the PM scope to pursue expansionary fiscal policies. Credit Agricole expects gains in the Nikkei and USD/JPY alongside curve steepening. If the LDP-JIP bloc requires support from another party, most likely the DPP or Sanseito, fiscal and political uncertainty could be priced in, as opposition partners may push for income tax cuts or broader VAT reductions, potentially triggering a deeper sell-off in JGBs. Should the LDP lose, a new government would likely prompt a flatter yield curve and JPY strength, reflecting the prospect of greater fiscal restraint than under Takaichi and a higher tolerance for BoJ rate hikes. Credit Agricole expects this to lift short-end yields and flatten the JGB curve. An in-depth preview can be found here.Japanese Economy Watchers Survey (Mon): Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey for January is due on Feb 9. The Current Conditions index slipped to 48.6 in December, remaining below the 50 threshold, while the Outlook index rose to 50.5, signalling cautious optimism for the months ahead. The survey is closely watched by the BoJ as a leading indicator of private consumption and service-sector momentum. Any further improvement in service-related sentiment would support the Bank’s view that service price inflation is becoming more durable.BoC Minutes (Wed):The minutes followed the January decision to hold rates at 2.25%, in line with expectations and matching the lower end of the BoC’s own estimate of neutral. The statement focused on uncertainty, saying it was elevated and that risks were being monitored closely, and added that the central bank was prepared to respond if the outlook changed. The Monetary Policy Report left near-term inflation forecasts unchanged but raised the fourth-quarter 2026 projection, while quarterly GDP forecasts were lifted across 2026. Since then, Governor Macklem has warned the BoC must be careful not to misdiagnose economic weakness amid a structural shift in the Canadian economy following a deterioration in relations with the United States. He said cutting rates in response to weak activity risked fuelling future inflation if the weakness reflected lower productive capacity rather than a cyclical demand downturn, and that overstimulating demand when the problem was structural could delay necessary adjustment. The BoC appears set to remain on hold for the foreseeable future barring a sharp change in the outlook, with market pricing showing about 9bps of hikes by year-end.Chinese Inflation (Wed): China is set to publish its January CPI and PPI figures after December data showed headline CPI rising 0.8% Y/Y, a 34-month high driven largely by food prices, while core inflation held at 1.2% and producer prices stayed in deflation at -1.9% Y/Y. ING expects inflation pressures to cool in January, forecasting CPI at 0.5% Y/Y as Lunar New Year effects weigh on prices, while PPI is seen remaining negative for a 40th consecutive month but improving to around -1.3% Y/Y amid firmer commodity prices. Analysts continue to warn that underlying demand remains weak despite the recent pick-up in headline inflation, with overcapacity and factory-gate deflation persisting as key drags. As a result, the data is unlikely to shift expectations for further policy support this year.US Jobs Report (Wed): Note: the January jobs report, originally scheduled for 6th February, was rescheduled to Wednesday, 11th February at 08:30EST/13:30GMT because of the partial US government shutdown. Recent labour market data have shown resilience despite other policy challenges. During the week corresponding to the traditional BLS survey window, weekly initial jobless claims stayed low at 210k after revisions, compared with 224k ahead of the December data. Continuing claims eased to 1.827mln in the survey week from 1.914mln heading into the December report. “There is no evidence that layoffs are picking up. There are firms that are trying to reduce their headcount, but this is being done almost exclusively through attrition rather than outright job cuts,” Santander said, adding that
Bitcoin to fill $84K futures gap 'very soon' as BTC rejects above 2021 top
Bitcoin market participants diverged on the short-term BTC price outlook, with warnings of new macro lows contrasting with $84,000 targets. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Bitcoin’s current price of $69,241 is at a critical juncture, with traders split between bearish macro concerns and bullish targets around $84,000. The divergence in sentiment reflects broader market uncertainty, particularly as macroeconomic indicators like inflation and interest rates continue to fluctuate. If BTC fails to hold above the $68,000 support level, we could see a cascade of selling pressure that might push prices toward new lows. On the flip side, if bullish momentum builds and BTC breaks through resistance near $72,000, it could pave the way for a rally towards that $84,000 target. Traders should keep an eye on volume trends and market sentiment indicators, as they could provide clues on which way the market is leaning. For now, watch the $68,000 support and $72,000 resistance levels closely. A decisive move in either direction could set the tone for the coming weeks, especially with macroeconomic data releases on the horizon. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Bitcoin’s support at $68,000 and resistance at $72,000; a breakout could lead to significant price movement toward $84,000.
“Rising Influence: Crypto PACs Gather Millions for US Midterm Elections – What It Means for Democracy and Regulation”
📰 DMK AI Summary Crypto political action committees (PACs) are amassing substantial funds in preparation for the upcoming US midterm elections. These PACs, such as Fairshake, have collected millions of dollars from industry giants like a16z, Coinbase, and Ripple. As the crypto sector aims to influence policy in Washington, concerns are raised about the impact of such significant financial backing on the democratic process. Meanwhile, the crypto industry’s lobbying efforts have intensified as it strives to push through the CLARITY Act. With a focus on bipartisan support, various crypto players are strategically backing candidates from both sides of the aisle to advance their interests. This political maneuvering reflects a shift in the industry’s approach towards influencing legislation and regulation in Washington. 💬 DMK Insight The influx of funds into crypto PACs underscores the growing influence of the industry in shaping political outcomes. By strategically supporting candidates aligned with their goals, crypto firms aim to steer policy decisions in their favor. However, the concentration of financial power within the industry raises concerns about the potential marginalization of ordinary citizens and the impact on democratic decision-making processes. As the crypto sector continues to expand its political footprint, it faces scrutiny over the extent of its sway on legislative agendas. 📊 Market Content The escalating financial backing of crypto PACs aligns with the broader trend of special interest groups utilizing super PACs to wield influence in Washington. This shift towards well-funded lobbying efforts highlights the changing landscape of political influence, where industry-aligned groups with substantial resources can significantly impact policy outcomes. Traders and investors in the crypto market should monitor these developments closely as regulatory decisions influenced by such lobbying activities can have far-reaching implications on market dynamics and investor sentiments.
What crashed Bitcoin? Three theories behind BTC's trip below $60K
Hong Kong hedge funds’ leveraged BTC price bets are emerging as the main trigger behind Bitcoin’s sharp month-long sell-off. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Hedge funds in Hong Kong are driving Bitcoin’s recent sell-off, and here’s why that’s crucial for traders: The sharp decline in BTC, now at $69,241, signals a shift in market sentiment largely influenced by leveraged positions taken by these funds. When hedge funds leverage their bets, they amplify both gains and losses, which can lead to increased volatility. If these funds begin to unwind their positions, it could trigger a cascading effect, pushing BTC lower and potentially dragging down correlated assets like Ethereum. Traders should keep an eye on the funding rates and open interest in futures markets to gauge whether this trend is stabilizing or worsening. But here’s the flip side: if these hedge funds start to cover their shorts, we could see a rapid rebound. Key levels to watch are the support around $67,000 and resistance at $72,000. Monitoring these levels will be essential in determining the next move for Bitcoin, especially as we approach the end of the month, which historically has seen significant price action. 📮 Takeaway Watch for Bitcoin to hold above $67,000; a drop below could signal further selling pressure from hedge funds.
Japan's Crypto Industry Faces Critical Test Ahead of Snap Election
Japan heads to polls as crypto industry watches tax reform, stablecoin rules, and legal reclassification timelines. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Japan’s upcoming elections could reshape crypto regulations, and here’s why that matters: With the crypto industry closely monitoring tax reforms and stablecoin regulations, traders should be aware that any changes could significantly impact market sentiment and trading strategies. If Japan adopts a more favorable tax regime or clearer stablecoin guidelines, it could attract institutional investment and boost trading volumes. Conversely, stringent regulations could stifle innovation and lead to capital flight. Watch for potential shifts in the Nikkei and related assets as these policies unfold. The real story is that Japan’s regulatory stance could set a precedent for other countries in the region. If Japan moves towards a more crypto-friendly environment, expect ripple effects across Asia, influencing everything from trading pairs to market liquidity. Keep an eye on the daily price action of major cryptocurrencies as news breaks, especially around key levels that could signal bullish or bearish trends. Traders should monitor the election date closely, as immediate volatility could present both risks and opportunities. 📮 Takeaway Watch for Japan’s election outcomes on crypto regulations; favorable changes could boost market sentiment and trading volumes significantly.
South Korean Crypto Exchange Accidentally Gave Away $43 Billion in Bitcoin
The error was quickly corrected, Bithumb said, but not before some users sold off their Bitcoin, temporarily crashing its listed price. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Bithumb’s recent error highlights the fragility of crypto markets—here’s why that matters now: When a major exchange like Bithumb misprices Bitcoin, even momentarily, it can trigger panic selling among traders. This incident led to a temporary crash in Bitcoin’s price, which underscores the volatility inherent in crypto trading. Traders should be aware that such errors can create opportunities for quick gains if they can act fast, but they also pose risks if the market sentiment shifts negatively. With SOL currently at $87.55, keep an eye on how Bitcoin reacts in the coming days; a rebound could signal a buying opportunity, while further declines might indicate a broader market correction. Also, consider monitoring trading volumes and order book depth on Bithumb and other exchanges. If volumes spike, it could suggest that traders are either taking advantage of the dip or panicking, which could lead to further volatility. Watch for Bitcoin to hold above key support levels; if it breaks below recent lows, it could trigger more selling pressure across the board. 📮 Takeaway Watch Bitcoin’s price action closely; if it holds above recent support levels, it may signal a buying opportunity amid the recent volatility.
The Most Surprising Bitcoin and Crypto Stories in the Epstein Files
The Justice Department’s release of millions of files related to Jeffrey Epstein has unearthed some wild Bitcoin and crypto stories. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The release of millions of files related to Jeffrey Epstein by the Justice Department could have unexpected implications for the crypto market. As these documents surface, they may reveal connections between Epstein and various crypto entities, potentially impacting investor sentiment and regulatory scrutiny. Traders should be aware that any negative associations could lead to increased volatility, particularly for assets linked to these revelations. Moreover, this situation highlights the ongoing intersection of crypto with legal and ethical issues, which could affect institutional adoption. If any major players are implicated, we might see a ripple effect across the market, influencing everything from Bitcoin to altcoins. Keep an eye on how this unfolds, especially if any significant names in the crypto space are mentioned. The next few weeks could be crucial for sentiment, so monitoring social media and news outlets for updates will be key. 📮 Takeaway Watch for potential market volatility in crypto assets as Epstein-related revelations unfold; stay alert for news that could impact investor sentiment.