There is just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1800 level. Similar to the day before, this isn’t one that ties too closely to any technical significance. However, we are seeing price action weave in and around the figure level in the past few days and so the expiries will provide another magnet to keep things more sticky until we get to US trading.If anything, just be wary that the 100-hour moving average is also narrowing in at 1.1808 currently. So, that will help to limit some topside momentum in case of any price extensions in the session ahead. However, push above that and it can free up some scope for price action to keep above 1.1800 more comfortably before the weekend.Besides that, expect trading sentiment to be more tied to the broader market mood. Things are looking fairly nervous after the big moves yesterday and also another round of sharp selling in silver earlier today, as well as in Bitcoin.There is a bit of a light breather as we see a bounce back from the lows but it doesn’t take away from the tense and edgy mood overall.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.1800 level, and here’s why that matters right now: While this level doesn’t scream technical significance, the current price action is weaving in and out of it, indicating potential volatility. Traders should keep an eye on this level as it could serve as a psychological barrier. If we see a sustained break above or below 1.1800, it could trigger momentum trades. Look for confirmation on the daily chart; a close above 1.1820 could signal a bullish push, while a drop below 1.1780 might invite sellers back into the market. It’s also worth noting that the broader market sentiment around the Eurozone’s economic recovery and U.S. Federal Reserve policy could influence this pair. If the Fed signals a more hawkish stance, it could strengthen the dollar, pushing EUR/USD lower. Conversely, any positive economic data from the Eurozone could bolster the Euro, making this level even more pivotal. Watch for upcoming economic releases that could shift sentiment and impact trading strategies. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the EUR/USD at 1.1800; a break above 1.1820 could signal bullish momentum, while a drop below 1.1780 may invite selling pressure.

Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.2%At the same time, we’re getting German trade figures released as per the following:December trade balance €17.1 billion vs €14.1 billion expectedPrior €13.1 billionExports +4.0% m/mPrior -2.5%Imports +1.4% m/mPrior +0.8%That’s a steep drop in German industrial output to wrap up the year, well missing on estimates. The main drag looks to be from a couple of sub-sectors, namely the automotive industry (-8.9%), mechanical engineering (-6.8%), and the maintenance and assembly of machinery (-17.6%). That is only slightly offset by better showings in the manufacture of metal products (+3.2%) and other vehicle manufacturing (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles +10.5%).As a whole for 2025, German production in the manufacturing sector was 1.1% lower than in the previous year after being adjusted for calendar effects.Moving on to the trade numbers, let’s focus on the 2025 year as a whole for a better overview. German exports were seen up 1.0% compared to 2024, clocking in at €1,569.6 billion. Meanwhile, German imports saw a slightly bigger jump by 4.4% for the year to €1,366.9 billion. Put together, that leaves the overall 2025 trade balance at €202.8 billion.The most notable thing about the trade figures is that China has now replaced the US as Germany’s most important trading partner in 2025. The total trade volume with China was €251.8 billion and well ahead of the US now, which only had a total trade volume of €240.5 billion.This of course comes amid two diverging factors. The first being German exports to the US are seen declining considerably amid Trump’s tariffs, being down 9% for the year. Meanwhile, German imports from China also picked up amid an influx of key materials as well as electric vehicles – being up 9% for the year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.5%House price index +1.0% y/yPrior +0.3%; revised to +0.4%UK house prices nudged up slightly to start the new year, with the average property price now seen at £300,077. For some context, that is the first time that the figure has breached the £300,000 mark. And once again, it further exemplifies the more resilient showing in the UK housing market since last year already.Halifax notes that:”The housing market entered 2026 on a steady footing, with average prices rising by +0.7% in January, more than reversing the -0.5% fall seen December. Annual growth also edged higher to +1.0%, pushing the cost of the typical UK home above £300,000 for the first time.“While that’s undoubtedly a milestone figure, and activity levels show a resilient market, affordability remains a challenge for many would-be buyers.“Broader economic conditions continue to provide some support. Wage growth has been outpacing property price inflation since late 2022, steadily improving underlying affordability. That’s a positive trend for buyers, and the long-term health of the market. “And we’re now seeing more mortgage deals below 4%. If inflation continues to ease, there should be further gradual reductions as the year goes on. “All in all, we still think house prices are likely to edge up between 1% and 3% this year.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight UK house prices just crossed £300,000, and here’s why that matters for traders: This milestone could signal a shift in market sentiment, especially for those trading in related assets like UK real estate investment trusts (REITs) or even the GBP. A rise in house prices often correlates with increased consumer confidence and spending, which can have ripple effects on the broader economy. If this trend continues, we might see a boost in sectors tied to housing, like construction and home improvement. On the flip side, higher property prices could lead to tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England, which traders need to keep an eye on. Watch for any signals from the BoE regarding interest rates, especially if inflation remains a concern. For now, key levels to monitor include the £300,000 mark itself as a psychological barrier, and any significant moves above or below this could dictate short-term trading strategies. If you’re in the forex market, keep an eye on GBP/USD; a bullish sentiment in the housing market could strengthen the pound against the dollar. 📮 Takeaway Watch the £300,000 level in UK house prices; a sustained move above could boost GBP and related assets, while signaling potential BoE policy shifts.

Kazaks is one to say that a “big and rapid” strengthening in the euro could warrant a policy response by the ECB. And that is something that will stand out among the recent remarks, which includes ECB president Lagarde’s one yesterday.In her press conference, Lagarde mentioned that “a stronger euro could bring inflation down beyond current expectations”. However, she brushed aside concerns in saying that EUR/USD has been moving “very much in line with the overall average”.That being said, I’d take any mention of this as saying that we are within distance of the ECB’s pain threshold towards the currency. And it seems that there is a fine line drawn closer to the 1.20 mark for EUR/USD at the moment.Besides Kazaks, we are also hearing from Villeroy today in saying that “downside inflation risks are probably more significant”. Adding that the ECB has “no specific FX target” but that the exchange rate is an important aspect in managing economic activity.Then, there’s also policymaker Stournaras out saying that the euro appreciation recently “hasn’t been dramatic”. However, he notes that the central bank is staying alert and keeping a close watch amid the uncertain global backdrop.Taking all that in, it’s the fact that we’re simply hearing more and more from ECB policymakers touching on the exchange rate that stands out. Typically, you’d see them not have to talk about the euro currency at all.But the fact that they have to go out of their way to play down concerns or make any mention of it speaks to the likelihood that we are close to testing their limits. If the dollar does suffer again down the road, keep a very close watch on the 1.20 level for EUR/USD. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight A potential ECB policy shift looms as the euro strengthens, and here’s why that matters for traders: With ETH currently at $1,919.43, the interplay between the euro’s strength and crypto markets could be significant. If the ECB reacts to a rapidly appreciating euro, it could lead to increased volatility in both forex and crypto assets. Traders should keep an eye on how this affects risk sentiment, particularly in the crypto space where ETH often mirrors broader market trends. A stronger euro might push investors towards traditional assets, potentially leading to a sell-off in cryptocurrencies. But there’s a flip side: if the ECB’s response is perceived as dovish or ineffective, it could actually bolster crypto as an alternative store of value. Watch for key levels in ETH, particularly around $1,900 and $2,000, as these could act as psychological barriers. The next ECB meeting will be crucial; any hints of policy changes could trigger significant market reactions, so stay alert for updates from Lagarde and her team. 📮 Takeaway Monitor ETH around $1,900 and $2,000 as ECB policy shifts could drive volatility; stay tuned for Lagarde’s next comments.

For some context, the French trade deficit is still on recovery mode after having hit its highest point in 2022 amid the whole Russia-Ukraine conflict. That drove up import prices for energy by almost double compared to 2021, resulting in a trade deficit of €161.7.As such, the narrowing to a deficit of €69.2 billion last year keeps with the improvement as once again the better showing is driven by energy developments. Despite the improvement in the trade deficit, it remains €11.1 billion higher in 2025 than its 2019 level. So, we’re not quite back to levels seen before the Covid pandemic just yet.Despite Trump tariffs and what is described in the report as an “unfavourable” exchange rate, French exports to the US are seen holding up last year (+0.3%) at €48.3 billion. In terms of total trade volume, both the US and China are almost on equal footing in terms of importance to France in 2025.And speaking of China, we’re seeing the same story with France as with Germany earlier. As before, China remains the largest source of France’s bilateral trade deficit. And this time largely due to imports rising by nearly 5% for the year. The jump was largely tied to an increase in imports of pharmaceutical products, which more than doubled (+131%) to €2.3 billion. But also, clothing and household appliances also showed increases last year with both accounting for ~12% of total imports from China.Adding to that, origin washing must be taken into account too with some Chinese goods perhaps reaching France indirectly through Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam. Imports from that region saw a marked increase of 14% last year, so there’s that to consider too. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The French trade deficit is showing signs of recovery, but here’s why that matters for traders: a narrowing deficit can signal improved economic conditions and potentially strengthen the euro. With the trade deficit having peaked at €161.7 billion in 2022 due to skyrocketing energy import prices, the recent narrowing indicates that France might be managing its imports better, which could lead to a more favorable balance of trade. This improvement could bolster the euro against other currencies, particularly if it aligns with other positive economic indicators like GDP growth or employment rates. Traders should keep an eye on the euro’s performance against the dollar, especially if it breaks above key resistance levels. However, it’s worth noting that while the deficit is narrowing, global economic uncertainties, including ongoing geopolitical tensions, could still impact trade dynamics. If the euro strengthens too quickly, it might hurt French exports, creating a potential flip side to this recovery narrative. Watch for any upcoming economic reports or central bank statements that could influence the euro’s trajectory. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the euro’s performance against the dollar; a break above key resistance levels could signal further strength as the trade deficit narrows.

As it’s usually the case after an ECB policy meeting, policymakers are out in full force sharing their views about monetary policy and the economy. As a reminder, the ECB yesterday held interest rates steady as widely expected and kept everything unchanged. It was a non-event basically. The focus was mainly on President Lagarde and comments on the euro after it broke through the 1.20 level against the US Dollar.Lagarde just aknowledged euro’s gains since last March and reiterated they don’t have an exchange rate target. She added though that a stronger euro could bring inflation down more than expected.ECB’s Stournaras this morning said that the economy is in stable equilibrium and they are monitoring exchange rates. He added that euro’s increase hasn’t been dramatic and that they are not really watching specific exchange rate levels. He also dismissed the slightly lower than expected January inflation data saying that it’s just one data point. This is something that ECB’s Escriva echoed by reiterating that inflation is at target and inflation expectations are anchored. Even ECB’s Villeroy, who’s one of the most dovish members, confirmed that they are in good place on inflation although he added that downside risks are probably more significant. He also mentioned that ECB has no FX target although it’s important for activity.ECB’s Kazaks mentioned that “big and rapid” strengthening in the euro could warrant a policy response by the ECB. This is exactly the reason why we got the “jawboning” last week after the EUR/USD rate went from 1.1576 to 1.2082 in less than two weeks. Policymakers don’t like fast, one-sided moves.They are now clearly sounding less concerned after the euro eased back to 1.18 against the US Dollar. The line in the sand remains the 1.20 level but it will need to be followed by softer inflation data to trigger rate cut expectations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight So the ECB just kept rates steady, and here’s why that matters: traders often look for clues in policymakers’ comments for future moves. With no changes announced, the market’s attention shifts to the nuances in the statements made by ECB officials. These discussions can hint at the central bank’s stance on inflation and growth, which are crucial for currency traders and investors alike. Right now, the euro might see some volatility as traders digest these comments. If any official hints at a shift in policy direction, it could lead to significant moves in the EUR/USD pair. For instance, if there’s a suggestion of tightening due to rising inflation, we could see the euro strengthen. Conversely, if the tone remains dovish, it might weigh on the euro. Keep an eye on the daily chart for the EUR/USD; a break below recent support levels could signal further downside. Here’s the thing: while the ECB’s decision was expected, the real story lies in how the market interprets the comments that follow. Watch for any shifts in sentiment, as they could create trading opportunities in both forex and related markets like bonds. 📮 Takeaway Monitor ECB officials’ comments closely for hints on future policy shifts, especially regarding inflation, as they could impact the EUR/USD significantly.

Modern traders face rising costs and tighter capital demands, so many now turn to performance-based funding. These evaluation models reward discipline, reduce personal risk and offer a clearer path for anyone aiming to trade at a professional level.Traders have seen the limits of relying on personal savings or bank loans, especially when markets move fast and participation costs rise. Many now look for options that avoid long debt cycles. Evaluation-based funding offers a different route, giving opportunities to people who can demonstrate skill within structured conditions. These models reward discipline instead of available capital, which appeals to traders who want a steadier entry into the industry.A New Route Beyond Traditional Capital BarriersThe older model of borrowing against personal assets placed pressure on traders still learning how to manage risk. High interest, strict repayment terms and exposure to loss made trading inaccessible for many. The shift toward evaluation programs created a way for individuals to demonstrate competence without those financial burdens. These programs replicate market conditions so candidates can show they understand risk limits, position sizing and consistency. Traders step into a space where ability matters more than the size of a bank account.This changing landscape includes the rise of the prop firm challenge, a structured evaluation where traders use virtual capital under defined rules. Participants work with clear objectives and risk parameters, and those who meet the criteria progress toward opportunities funded by the firm. This model provides clarity on expectations and outlines the rules, objectives and stages in an accessible format.Why Skill-Based Evaluation Is Gaining MomentumSkill-based evaluation grew from the understanding that competence can be measured through behaviour rather than credit history. Traders who apply to these programs engage in monitored conditions where discipline, risk management and consistency are evaluated. Firms benefit because they can identify responsible candidates. Traders benefit because they can demonstrate suitability without risking personal capital, which keeps early-stage costs far lower than traditional routes.Performance remains the central metric. A trader who stays within risk limits often signals better long-term potential than someone chasing high returns. Analytical tools, trade journals and behavioural metrics have become more common in these assessments. Industry breakdowns of proprietary tradingmodels explain how firms deploy their own capital with selected traders, showing how evaluation systems fit into the wider tradition of firm-funded trading.Reduced Personal Risk Encourages More Responsible TradingPersonal capital requirements have historically been one of the biggest obstacles for aspiring traders. Many talented individuals stepped away from the industry because they could not risk large deposits or assume the burden of loans. Evaluation programs allow them to enter cautiously. After passing the assessment and proving their discipline, they gain access to funded accounts with virtual capital.This structure encourages traders to slow down, follow rules and treat each trade as a measured decision. The environment simulates real market conditions rather than a speculative one. It also reduces emotional pressure. When people are not trading with their savings, they tend to avoid reckless decisions. The learning curve becomes safer, and the pathway forward becomes clearer.How Performance-Based Funding Reshapes OpportunityThese programs alter the idea of who can become a trader. People who previously lacked the financial backing to enter the market gain a new route based on behaviour, preparation and commitment. The financial industry benefits from a larger pool of disciplined participants who approach the markets with structure rather than desperation.The appeal of these evaluation models also reflects broader trends. Many industries are shifting toward performance-oriented access, where individuals prove competency rather than depend on traditional gatekeepers. Trading fits naturally into this movement because markets reward discipline and punish emotional decision-making. Traders who succeed in structured evaluations tend to carry those habits into future stages of their development.The Practical Upside for Everyday TradersPeople entering the trading world often wonder how they can create a stable foundation without absorbing the financial risks that wiped out earlier generations. It also functions like a budget-friendly entry point, giving traders a way to pursue opportunities without paying full access costs up front. Many traders view this as a cost-saving alternative because the entry fees are often far lower than the capital they would otherwise need to commit. Those who succeed gain access to firm-funded accounts at a scale they might not reach on their own. Some evaluation programs run seasonal discounts or reduced-fee entry periods, helping new traders test the waters at a lower cost.This combination of structure and lower personal expense appeals to people who want growth while keeping their upfront costs lean, which fits the mindset of anyone who shops for value.A Steadier Way Forward for New and Developing TradersThe move toward skill-focused funding signals a wider change in how traders build their careers. Evaluation programs create space for careful learning and meaningful progression. They reward people who approach markets with thought rather than impulse. This modern path removes some of the stress tied to personal capital and replaces it with a clearer, more sustainable route into the profession. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Traders are pivoting to performance-based funding as costs rise, and here’s why that’s crucial right now: With tighter capital demands, relying solely on personal savings or loans is becoming less viable. Performance-based funding models not only mitigate personal risk but also incentivize disciplined trading, which is essential in today’s volatile markets. This shift could lead to a more professional trading environment, attracting serious investors who are looking for sustainable growth rather than speculative gains. As we see more traders adopting these models, it could create a ripple effect, influencing market liquidity and volatility. Keep an eye on how this trend develops, especially in the context of broader economic indicators like interest rates and inflation, which could further impact capital availability and trading strategies. But there’s a flip side: while these funding models can enhance discipline, they may also pressure traders to perform consistently, which could lead to increased stress and potential burnout. Watch for how this affects trader sentiment and market dynamics

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold is now consolidating between major technical levels as traders await new catalysts before picking a direction. The fundamentals are still against rising prices, so we either get stuck in a wide range below the January’s high or will see another flush lower in the next weeks or months. Next week is going to be a big one for precious metals. In fact, we will get the US NFP report on Wednesday and the US CPI on Friday. Strong data is going to trigger a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations and likely push gold into new lows. Soft data, on the other hand, should support the market amid Fed’s rate cut bets.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is now consolidating above the trendline as traders await new catalysts for the next major move. If we get another flush into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into a new record high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 4273 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a resistance zone around the 5100 level where we eventually got the rejection. If the price rallies back into it, we can expect the sellers to step in again with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the trendline targeting a breakout. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into new all-time highs.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to target the 5100 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s consolidation signals indecision, and here’s why that matters for traders: With gold currently hovering around key technical levels, traders are in a wait-and-see mode. The market’s inability to break above January’s highs suggests that bullish momentum is lacking, and the potential for a downward flush looms. This environment is ripe for day traders looking to capitalize on volatility, but it also poses risks for swing traders who might be caught in a range-bound market. If gold fails to hold above critical support levels, we could see a significant sell-off that impacts correlated assets like silver and even cryptocurrencies, as risk-off sentiment could drive investors to safer havens. Keep an eye on the $80.64 level for SOL, as movements in gold could influence crypto sentiment. If gold breaks below its current support, it could trigger a broader market reaction, leading to cascading effects across various asset classes. Watch for any news or economic indicators that might serve as catalysts, as they could dictate the next move in this uncertain landscape. 📮 Takeaway Monitor gold’s key support levels closely; a break could lead to a significant sell-off impacting correlated assets like SOL.

Earlier today, we had Germany and France release their latest trade figures for December and in summary the whole of 2025. There were quite a few things to note but a couple of standout points were:China once again overtaking the US as being Germany’s top trade partnerGerman exports to the US declined by 9% for the yearGerman imports from China grew by over 9% for the yearChina and the US go toe-to-toe in being France’s top trade partnerFrench exports to the US remain resilient, although wines and spirits saw exports plunge in Q4French imports from China grew by over 5% for the year, driven by pharmaceutical products, clothing, and household appliancesFrench imports from South East Asian countries surged by 14% for the year; origin washing perhaps?Taking all that into consideration, it is clear that Trump’s tariffs is having a material impact on who and what European countries are choosing to trade with.The steep decline in German exports to the US exemplifies that, with auto exports surely being hit hard. And that means Germany has to try and foster bilateral relations elsewhere to maintain their economic stature. Evidently, China is the main beneficiary from all this. And I’m not speaking about investment and trade ties in helping out Germany alone.It is the fact that China is also able to help itself in diverting and offloading surplus goods manufactured in Chinese factories. It would be reasonable to think that these goods would be originally intended for the US market. But with Trump’s aggressive tariffs eating into profit margins, Chinese firms have to do some reshuffling and instead redirect their goods and sales elsewhere instead.It seems that Europe is one of the more popular destinations, not to mention the sudden demand surge for electric vehicles (EVs) as well helping in that regard. The green transition is a key thing to note as well, allowing for China to export things like solar panels and wind turbine components to Germany to help with the shift.In the case of France, this year is going to be the more interesting one to take note of. French demand for Chinese goods was solid last year but it seems that exports to the US also held up well despite tariffs. So, was the impact of tariffs overblown? Not quite.Do be reminded that the higher levies on French wines and spirits only came into effect in August last year. However, Trump was already threatening these tariffs since April. And that allowed for French bottle makers to frontrun exports to the US before the tariffs hit.But when you look at the Q4 numbers after the tariffs came into effect, the impact is evident. French wine exports to the US dropped by over 39% in 2H 2025 and spirits were down by roughly 47% in Q4 2025. Despite the late impact, total beverage exports to the US exhibited a decline of over 20% for the year. That’s roughly a a loss of €831 million.To summarise all of that, it is clear that the nature of US tariffs is having a negative impact on the trade relationship between major European countries with the US itself. However, it is at the same time indirectly also creating an avenue for these impacted countries (China included) to seek out opportunities within themselves.On that final point, China is obviously sneaking in to try and establish a stronger footing in the European market. And not just to help with the needs of Germany and France, but to also market their own products which were originally manufactured for the US market.In order to be able to move this diverted goods and products, Chinese companies will tend to try and compete hard in terms of pricing and make things a lot cheaper. That includes specific sectoral products such as consumer electronics and apparel especially.Now, this is where there might be an even bigger worry – not just to Europe but also for the rest of the world.As China diverts their final trade products away from the US and to other countries, they are doing so for cheap in order to try and penetrate new markets. And what is not clearly evident at first glance is the structural impact this will have on domestic supply chains for these countries that are importing their goods from China.In time, this will eventually lead to lower input costs as it would be much cheaper to source for equivalent components from China due to domestic overcapacity there. As such, domestic firms in let’s say Europe will have to adjust or be priced out of the competition and that means also increasing reliance on Chinese raw materials and parts to make it cheaper to build their end product.So, what does this all mean?In essence, China is indirectly exporting deflation to these countries. That especially the longer it is allowed to penetrate and stay embedded into the supply chains.And while markets are now all talking about inflation returning, this is a potential outside risk to consider as part of the macro outlook. It may not be obvious now but it could become a real issue come next year or perhaps in 2028. That especially if global trade relations with the US also fail to improve in the years ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Germany’s trade figures reveal a significant shift: China has overtaken the US as Germany’s top trading partner. This change isn’t just a headline; it signals a potential realignment in global trade dynamics that traders need to watch closely. With Germany’s exports to China rising, this could bolster the Euro against the dollar, especially if the trend continues into 2025. Traders should keep an eye on the EUR/USD pair, particularly if it approaches key resistance levels. If the Euro strengthens, it might impact related assets like European equities and commodities tied to German exports. On the flip side, this shift could raise concerns about dependency on China, especially amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. If trade

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices are consolidating between key levels as traders await new developments from the US-Iran negotiations. On Wednesday, prices surged after reports suggested that US-Iran talks scheduled for today were called off. The gains were eventually erased after Iran’s foreign minister said the talks were still on.Given the low probabilities of a quick agreement between US and Iran, we might continue to see oil prices bid into the weekends as the risk of a military escalation remains high. On the macro side, OPEC+ held output steady as expected over the weekend. This continues to support the market amid improving demand. In fact, unless we get more output hikes or the market starts to bet on Fed’s rate hikes, the outlook for oil prices should remain skewed to the upside. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil is consolidating between the 66.44 and 62.37 levels as negotiations between US and Iran continue. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 58.80 support next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the choppy price action with no clear levels where to lean on. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will need a break lower to open the door for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Oil prices are stuck in a tug-of-war, and here’s why that matters for traders right now: With SOL at $80.64, the volatility in oil markets is a crucial factor to watch. The recent back-and-forth on US-Iran negotiations is creating uncertainty, which can lead to sharp price swings. Traders should be aware that any definitive news could trigger a breakout or breakdown from current levels. If talks collapse, we might see a surge in oil prices, while a successful negotiation could lead to a drop. This kind of volatility can affect correlated assets like energy stocks and commodities, so keep an eye on those as well. Here’s the flip side: while many are focused on the immediate news, the underlying supply-demand dynamics in the oil market are still in play. If the negotiations drag on without resolution, we could see a longer-term consolidation phase. For now, monitor key technical levels around $80 and $82 for potential trading signals. A break above $82 could signal a bullish trend, while a drop below $80 might indicate a bearish shift. Stay alert for any news updates that could sway market sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Watch for oil prices to break above $82 or below $80, as either move could signal a strong trend shift.