The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold interest rates steady today with the policy rate to remain at 2.00%. The central bank is seen maintaining the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach in the statement. We won’t get macroeconomic projections at this meeting, so the focus will be on the press conference and Lagarde’s comments on the euro.The data since December hasn’t been pointing to any need in adjusting monetay policy. The Flash Q4 GDP Q/Q came at 0.3%, above the ECB’s 0.2% projection. The unemployment rate fell back to record lows. The ECB’s wage growth tracker points to some modest increase. The PMIs were mixed but still showing stable economic activity. Lastly, the Eurozone inflation data ticked slightly lower with the Core CPI coming in at 2.2% vs 2.3% prior.The ECB policymakers repeated several times that monetary policy remains in a “good place” and they won’t respond to small or short-term deviations from their 2% target, unless there’s a clear shock in the economy. The focus today will be mostly on Lagarde’s press conference where there will certainly be questions about the recent euro’s appreciation. In fact, last week we had a few ECB members kind of jawboning the euro after it broke above the 1.20 level against the US Dollar. As a reminder, last year ECB’s Vice President de Guindos said that 1.20 on the EUR/USD exchange rate is something they could tolerate, but anything above that would complicate the outlook for them.Lagarde is expected to keep a neutral tone and not give away much. If we get clear signals of discomfort about euro’s strength, then we could see more weakness for the currency especially amid the better and better US data. It wouldn’t be surprising at all seeing EUR/USD falling back to 1.16 in the next few weeks. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The ECB’s decision to keep rates at 2.00% signals a cautious approach amid economic uncertainty. For traders, this means volatility in the euro could be on the horizon, especially if future data shifts expectations. The lack of macroeconomic projections today leaves room for speculation, which could lead to short-term trading opportunities. Watch for any comments on inflation or growth forecasts, as these will be key indicators for future rate adjustments. If the euro weakens, it might create buying opportunities in USD pairs or commodities priced in euros. Keep an eye on the 1.05 level for EUR/USD; a break below could trigger further selling pressure, while a bounce could indicate renewed strength. Overall, the ECB’s stance reflects a broader trend of central banks navigating economic headwinds, and traders should prepare for potential ripple effects across related markets, particularly in forex and equities. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the EUR/USD at the 1.05 level; a break could signal further downside, while a bounce may indicate strength ahead.

The rollercoaster ride continues as the volatile selling is not quite over yet. Precious metals looked on course for a modest recovery in the past few sessions before being dealt a slight setback in US trading the day before. Gold failed to hold a firm break above $5,000 while silver dipped back under $90 to start with in closing out yesterday.That carried over to today before a heavy round of selling hit in Asia with silver falling from $89 to $74 in the span of less than two hours. From earlier:Silver takes a nosedive as dip buyers are dealt a setbackPrecious metals slammed, silver plummeted. Was it this news out of China?For me, the selling reaffirms the technical picture we’re seeing with precious metals still at the moment. That being dip buyers are still not able to seize back control. And that indicates that the volatile selling and swings are not quite over and done with just yet. So, be very careful when picking your battles.The near-term chart for silver clearly exemplifies that with price action failing to firmly hold above the 38.2 Fib retracement level at $90.55 for one. The other key thing is that we’re seeing a solid rejection of the 100-hour moving average (red line) as well. That keeps the near-term bias more bearish for the precious metal, at least for now.The drop in gold isn’t quite as pronounced, with it being down just around 1.5% on the day. But as mentioned before, any major pullbacks in this space will hurt silver more than it will gold. And that is precisely what we’re witnessing now.The correction will end when it ends. But in the meantime, expect the volatility to continue to play out as we likely establish a much larger consolidative range for both precious metals. It will require a trigger for dip buyers to gain confidence and to regain the momentum again. However, that will prove to be tough for the time being as profit-taking activity will be seen every so often in this kind of market turbulence. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s struggle to break above $5,000 is a critical moment for traders: it signals ongoing volatility and uncertainty in the precious metals market. The recent attempts at recovery in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, highlight the fragility of bullish sentiment. With gold unable to maintain its position above $5,000, traders should be cautious. This level has become a psychological barrier, and a failure to break through could lead to further selling pressure. Watch for key support levels below this mark, as a drop could trigger stop-loss orders, exacerbating the decline. Silver’s performance will also be crucial; if it follows gold’s lead, we could see a correlated downturn across both assets. On the flip side, if gold manages to reclaim and hold above $5,000, it could reignite bullish momentum, attracting both retail and institutional buyers. Keep an eye on market sentiment and any macroeconomic indicators that could influence precious metals, like inflation data or interest rate changes. The next few trading sessions will be pivotal, so stay alert for potential breakouts or breakdowns. 📮 Takeaway Watch gold’s ability to hold above $5,000; failure could lead to increased selling pressure, while a breakout might attract new buyers.

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.1%Retail sales +1.3% vs +1.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.3%; revised to +2.4%That’s a slightly more disappointing end to the year for euro area retail sales activity. But overall in 2025, the annual average level of retail trade volume is seen increasing by 2.3% compared with 2024. As for the monthly breakdown in December, it can be seen below:Despite a poor finish to the year, there is some added resilience seen throughout 2025 for euro area retail sales activity. So, that speaks to household expenditure holding up despite worries about inflation especially in the likes of Germany and Spain.In any case, this isn’t a data point that will move the needle on the ECB. At this stage, the central bank remains solely focused on the inflation battle. And while core prices are slowly nudging back towards the 2% level, it likely won’t be enough to warrant a shift from the central bank today and for the first half of this year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Euro area retail sales just missed expectations, and here’s why that matters: The latest figures show retail sales growth at 1.3% year-over-year, falling short of the anticipated 1.6%. This slight downturn could signal a cooling consumer sentiment as we head into 2025, despite forecasts predicting a 2.3% annual increase in retail trade volume. Traders should be cautious; weaker retail performance often translates to lower consumer spending, which can impact broader economic indicators and potentially lead to a slowdown in GDP growth. If you’re trading euro-denominated assets, keep an eye on how this data influences the ECB’s monetary policy stance, especially if inflation remains stubbornly high. On the flip side, if the market overreacts to this data, it could create buying opportunities in undervalued sectors. Watch for key technical levels in related assets, particularly EUR/USD, where a break below recent support could trigger further selling pressure. The immediate focus should be on the upcoming economic reports and how they might adjust market expectations for interest rates. 📮 Takeaway Monitor EUR/USD closely; a break below key support levels could signal further downside, especially if consumer sentiment continues to weaken.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar continues to rebound after the strong selloff experienced in the last couple of weeks of January. The greenback remains supported by improving US data and strong PMIs potentially hinting to stronger economic activity going forward. If the data continues to come out strong, traders will have to pare back their dovish Fed bets, and that’s going to boost the US Dollar further.Next week is going to be a big one. In fact, we will get the US NFP report on Wednesday and the US CPI on Friday. The trend for the dollar is looking increasingly bullish, but traders will still look for confirmation from the data to gain more conviction. JPY:On the JPY side, nothing has changed. The BoJ held interest rates steady as expected at the last policy meeting and upgraded slightly growth and inflation forecasts due to the expansionary fiscal policies. Governor Ueda didn’t offer anything new in terms of forward guidance as he just repeated that they will keep raising rates if the economic outlook is realised. He also added that April price behaviour will be a factor to mull over a rate hike. This suggests that April is when they expect to deliver another rate hike if the data supports such a move. The Japanese Yen rallied just on the back of the “rate check” talks and intervention risks. This is now in the rear-view mirror and traders are piling back into shorts as the US Dollar strengthens on better data and expected Takaichi’s victory in the lower house elections this weekend. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to rally towards the 159.00 handle where we got the strong verbal intervention and the talks of “rate checks” that eventually triggered a huge and quick selloff in the pair. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the highs to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new cycle highs.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above the last week’s gap and continued higher as the buyers increased the bullish bets into the 159.00 handle. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a pullback into the 155.50 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US Jobless Claims and Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. Over the weekend, we have the Japanese elections where the LDP is widely expected to win. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US Dollar’s rebound signals potential strength in the economy, and here’s why that matters: With improving US data and strong PMIs, traders should watch for a sustained bullish trend in the Dollar. This could lead to a shift in forex positions, especially for those trading against the Euro and Yen. If the Dollar continues to strengthen, it might pressure commodities priced in USD, like gold and oil, potentially leading to lower prices in those markets. Keep an eye on key resistance levels for the Dollar index; a break above recent highs could confirm a longer-term bullish trend. Conversely, if economic data falters, expect a quick reversal. So, it’s crucial to monitor upcoming economic releases closely, as they could dictate the Dollar’s trajectory in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch for key economic data releases; a sustained Dollar strength could impact commodity prices and forex positions significantly.

United States ISM Services New Orders Index fell from previous 57.9 to 53.1 in January 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The drop in the ISM Services New Orders Index from 57.9 to 53.1 is a red flag for traders: it signals a slowdown in economic activity. This decline could impact sectors sensitive to consumer spending and business investment, particularly in services like retail and hospitality. A reading below 54 often indicates a contraction phase, which could lead to reduced earnings forecasts for companies in these sectors. Traders should watch for potential ripple effects in related markets, such as equities and commodities, as investor sentiment shifts. If this trend continues, we might see a bearish sentiment in the broader market, especially if the index dips further in upcoming months. On the flip side, this could present buying opportunities in defensive stocks or sectors that typically perform well during economic slowdowns. Keep an eye on the next ISM report and any revisions to this data, as they could provide clearer signals about the economy’s trajectory. Immediate watchpoints include the 50 level in the index, which separates expansion from contraction, and any related movements in the S&P 500 and Treasury yields. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the ISM Services Index to hold above 50; a sustained drop could trigger bearish sentiment across equities and related sectors.

United States ISM Services PMI came in at 53.8, above expectations (53.5) in January 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The ISM Services PMI hitting 53.8 signals stronger-than-expected growth, and here’s why that matters: For traders, this uptick suggests resilience in the services sector, which is crucial as it comprises a significant portion of the U.S. economy. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and with expectations set lower at 53.5, this could lead to bullish sentiment in related markets. Look for potential upward pressure on the USD as traders reassess their positions, especially in forex pairs like EUR/USD or GBP/USD. If the dollar strengthens, commodities priced in USD might face downward pressure. But don’t overlook the flip side—if this growth leads to concerns about inflation, we could see the Fed tightening monetary policy sooner than expected. Keep an eye on the 54.0 resistance level in the PMI; if we breach that, it could indicate sustained momentum. Watch for upcoming economic indicators that could confirm or contradict this trend, especially employment data and consumer spending figures in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 54.0 level in ISM Services PMI; a breach could signal sustained economic momentum and impact USD strength.

United States ISM Services Prices Paid increased to 66.6 in January from previous 64.3 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The jump in ISM Services Prices Paid to 66.6 signals inflationary pressures that traders can’t ignore. This increase could influence the Fed’s next moves, especially with interest rates already a hot topic. Higher service prices often lead to increased costs for businesses, which can squeeze margins and impact earnings. For traders, this means keeping an eye on sectors sensitive to inflation, like consumer discretionary and financials. If inflation continues to rise, we might see a shift in market sentiment, leading to volatility in equities and potential strength in safe-haven assets like gold. Watch for reactions in the S&P 500 and Treasury yields, as they could provide clues on how the market is digesting this data. But here’s the flip side: if the Fed decides to maintain or even lower rates despite rising prices, it could create a bullish environment for risk assets. So, traders should monitor the upcoming Fed meetings and any statements regarding inflation expectations. Key levels to watch include the 4,000 mark on the S&P 500 and the 2.5% level on the 10-year Treasury yield, as breaks in these could signal larger market moves. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on the S&P 500 around the 4,000 level and watch for Fed signals on inflation to gauge market direction.

Economic activity in the US service sector remained unchanged in January, with the ISM Services PMI holding steady at 53.8. The print, however, came in above analysts’ expectations of 53.5. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The ISM Services PMI holding at 53.8 is a mixed bag for traders: steady growth but not explosive. While the figure beats expectations, it signals that the service sector is stable rather than accelerating, which could affect interest rate expectations. Traders should keep an eye on how this impacts the broader economic outlook, especially with inflation concerns still looming. If the PMI starts to trend lower, it could prompt a shift in Fed policy, affecting forex pairs like USD/EUR or USD/JPY. Watch for any shifts in sentiment from institutional players, as they often react to these economic indicators. In terms of technical levels, if the PMI starts to show a downward trend, it could lead to increased volatility in related markets, particularly in equities and commodities. The next key date to monitor is the upcoming Fed meeting, where these figures will likely be discussed. A sustained PMI below 53 could signal a slowdown, prompting traders to adjust their positions accordingly. 📮 Takeaway Watch for any downward trend in the ISM Services PMI; a sustained drop below 53 could signal economic slowdown and impact USD pairs significantly.

Intuit (INTU) saw a sharp selloff yesterday, finishing the trading day down roughly 11%. The move did not happen in isolation. This decline came alongside a broader pullback across the technology and software space, which added pressure to many names in the sector. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Intuit’s 11% drop isn’t just a blip; it’s part of a tech sector shakeout. The broader tech pullback suggests that traders should brace for continued volatility. With SOL currently at $91.96, keep an eye on how tech stocks influence crypto sentiment. If tech continues to falter, we might see a risk-off approach from investors, impacting altcoins like SOL. Watch for SOL’s support levels around $90; a breach could trigger further selling pressure. Conversely, if tech stabilizes, SOL might find a footing and rally back. Here’s the kicker: while mainstream coverage focuses on the immediate selloff, it’s worth considering the potential for a rebound if the tech sector finds its legs. Look for key earnings reports and economic indicators that could shift sentiment in the coming weeks. Traders should monitor the correlation between tech stocks and crypto, especially during this turbulent phase. 📮 Takeaway Watch SOL closely around the $90 support level; a break could signal further downside, while stabilization in tech may offer a rebound opportunity.

The Riksbank has decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, citing solid economic growth and rising household consumption. Despite a weak labor market, inflation has reached target levels, allowing the Riksbank to adopt a wait-and-see approach. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Riksbank’s decision to hold rates steady at 1.75% is a pivotal moment for traders, especially in the context of rising inflation and household consumption. For forex traders, this stability could strengthen the Swedish Krona against other currencies, particularly if economic growth continues to outpace expectations. The weak labor market might be a concern, but with inflation hitting target levels, the central bank’s cautious stance suggests they’re confident in the economy’s resilience. Traders should keep an eye on any shifts in economic indicators that could prompt a change in policy, especially as we approach the end of the year. If inflation trends upward or if household consumption falters, we could see volatility in the Krona. On the flip side, if the Riksbank’s wait-and-see approach leads to prolonged stability, it could attract foreign investment, further bolstering the Krona. Watch for key economic reports in the coming weeks that could influence the Riksbank’s next steps and the broader forex market dynamics. 📮 Takeaway Monitor upcoming economic indicators closely; any signs of inflation rising or consumption dropping could impact the SEK significantly.