Prior +0.8%HICP +0.4% vs +0.6% y/y expectedPrior +0.7%The estimates here are much softer than anticipated, with the headline reading being the weakest since December 2020. As always is the case, core annual inflation matters the most and we’ll get a sense of that in the final reading the next time. But at the balance, French price pressures continue to show signs of easing and that is quite the contrast to the situation in Germany.The divergence we’re seeing is what is creating some problems for the ECB to balance out. That especially since Germany is the region’s largest economy, hence needing special care and focus on economic developments there. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Inflation data just came in weaker than expected, and here’s why that matters: The latest HICP reading of +0.4% against an expected +0.6% signals a potential easing in inflationary pressures, the weakest since December 2020. This could shift market sentiment, especially for those trading in forex and crypto, as central banks might reconsider their tightening strategies. If core inflation continues to trend lower, we could see a pivot in monetary policy, which would impact interest rates and subsequently affect asset prices across the board. Traders should keep an eye on the next core inflation reading for clearer direction. But don’t overlook the flip side; if inflation remains sticky despite this data, we could see volatility spike as markets react to uncertainty. Watch for key levels in the EUR/USD pair, as a break below recent support could signal further downside. The next few weeks will be crucial, so monitoring economic indicators closely will be essential for positioning ahead of potential market shifts. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on the next core inflation reading; a continued decline could shift monetary policy and impact forex and crypto markets significantly.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the strong selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong reasons to appreciate, but there wasn’t a reason for a strong selloff either. The US data continues to improve, especially on the labour market side as the US Jobless Claims suggest a re-acceleration in activity. Yesterday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the new orders index jumping to the best levels since 2022. February might be the month when the US Dollar comes back with a vengeance if we keep getting strong data. The NFP report is certainly the main highlight although it got delayed due to the partial shutdown. Nonetheless, we will get many other top tier data that could give the greenback a boost like the US ADP and the ISM Services PMI. The market is pricing 48 bps of easing by year-end and those bets will be pared back in case the data strengthens. Conversely, if the data comes out softer than expected, then we could see the US Dollar coming back under pressure, although the momentum shouldn’t be as strong as we’ve seen in January.AUD:On the AUD side, the RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25 bps as widely expected bringing it back to 3.80%. The focus was solely on the forward guidance and especially on the updated forecasts. That’s where we got the hawkish surprise as the central bank signalled two more rate hikes by year end compared to just one that the market was expecting. The Australian Dollar jumped across the board on the hawkish hike.AUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD retested the support zone around the 0.69 handle and eventually rallied following the hawkish RBA rate hike. The buyers will target the 0.7150 level and if we get there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the 0.7150 level to position for a drop back into the 0.69 support.AUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the bounce on the support. If the price comes back to the support, we can expect the buyers to continue to step in to target new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline around the 0.6750 level next.AUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is trading at the upper bound of the average daily range for today. In such instances, we can generally see some consolidation or a pullback before the next move. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the minor upward trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting a break below the major support.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent rebound in the US Dollar is more about sentiment than solid fundamentals. Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair has sparked optimism, but traders should be cautious. The previous selloff lacked strong economic backing, suggesting the dollar’s volatility could continue. If Warsh’s policies lean towards tightening, we might see the dollar strengthen further, but any hint of dovishness could send it tumbling again. Keep an eye on key resistance levels around recent highs; a break could signal a stronger trend. Also, watch correlated assets like gold and equities, as they often react inversely to dollar strength. The next few weeks will be crucial as the market digests this news and anticipates the Fed’s direction. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the dollar’s resistance levels closely; a break could signal a stronger trend, while dovish hints from Warsh may lead to renewed weakness.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the strong selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong reasons to appreciate, but there wasn’t a reason for a strong selloff either. The US data continues to improve, especially on the labour market side as the US Jobless Claims suggest a re-acceleration in activity. Yesterday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the new orders index jumping to the best levels since 2022. February might be the month when the US Dollar comes back with a vengeance if we keep getting strong data. The NFP report is certainly the main highlight although it got delayed due to the partial shutdown. Nonetheless, we will get many other top tier data that could give the greenback a boost like the US ADP and the ISM Services PMI. The market is pricing 48 bps of easing by year-end and those bets will be pared back in case the data strengthens. Conversely, if the data comes out softer than expected, then we could see the US Dollar coming back under pressure, although the momentum shouldn’t be as strong as we’ve seen in January.INR:The Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US Dollar, but the latest positive development on the tariffs front gave the INR a strong boost. In fact, US President Trump announced yesterday on Truth Social that they reached a deal with India and the US will lower the tariffs from 25% to 18%. This week, we have also the RBI rate decision on Friday where the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady after inflation increased to 1.33% in December vs 0.71% in November and analysts expecting further improvement towards the RBI’s target. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR eventually dropped from the upper bound of the channel and it’s now getting closer to the bottom trendline. We can expect the buyers to step in around the bottom trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the top trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 89.00 handle next.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the selloff in the pair triggered by the positive US-India developments. A break below the bottom trendline should open the door for a move into the swing level at 89.50 which could be the last line of defence for the buyers as a break below that level could change the medium-term trend.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 91.42 level next. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the RBI rate decision and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US Dollar’s recent rebound is more about sentiment than solid fundamentals, and here’s why that matters: Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair has sparked optimism, but traders need to be cautious. The initial selloff in the dollar lacked strong economic backing, suggesting that the rebound could be short-lived. If the market shifts focus back to inflation data or employment figures, we might see volatility return. Watch for critical levels around recent highs and lows; if the dollar fails to hold these, it could signal a deeper correction. Also, consider how this affects correlated assets like gold and cryptocurrencies. A stronger dollar typically pressures these markets, so if the dollar continues to rise, it might trigger sell-offs in those areas. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic indicators; they could provide the next directional cue for the dollar and related assets. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the dollar’s performance around key support and resistance levels; a failure to hold could lead to significant moves in gold and crypto markets.

The volatile moves since the latter stages of last week is cooling but it doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods just yet. For now at least, gold and silver is at least seeing the sharp pullback take a bit of a breather. However, it doesn’t mean that all is good again to resume the same kind of parabolic surge higher in the past two months.So far on the session, we’re once again seeing precious metals catch some bids in European morning trade. It was the same yesterday with a modest bounce after some heavy selling Asia. But of course, that was then met with some added selling in US trading but at least gold and silver did not succumb back to fall near the lows seen in the early stages.Following the volatile and sharp moves in the past few sessions, where do we go from here?As mentioned yesterday, the technical side of things will offer the best clues on how sentiment is playing out. In that lieu, the Fib retracement levels are key at this stage.In the case of gold, dip buyers are slowly breaking the momentum with a push back above the 38.2 Fib retracement level of $4,860. That’s providing some comfort with eyes on the $5,000 mark in halving the sharp drop since last week.A firm break back above the figure level will be a big psychological boost in rehabilitating the overall mood, even more so if it can get back above the key hourly moving averages. But for now, it’s about taking one step at a time. The 50.0 Fib retracement level near the $5,000 mark will be a big, big challenge. So, watch out for that in terms of solidifying any sentiment on the rebound here.As for silver, the bounce has been less convincing. Price action has only taken out the 23.6 Fib retracement level and it’s nowhere near to halving the sharp drop since last week. As such, there is still more work to do to really justify a material rebound or any major change in sentiment just yet. That even if price is up roughly 9% today.Overall, I wouldn’t say it’s a dead cat bounce for precious metals. The fact of the matter is that the fundamental factors driving the price movements since last year are still acting as key tailwinds for both gold and silver. So from a structural perspective, it makes sense for both precious metals to trend higher over time.The sharp pullback here is one that is largely due to one-sided positioning and the fact that it has gone too far, too fast. Think of it as a case of Icarus flying too close to the sun. While his wings have melted, it doesn’t mean that there’s no room for recovery.At this point, I would say that we’re overdue a more consolidative phase for gold and silver. However, it will probably be one with a much larger range than we’d be typically accustomed to.But so long as we continue to get triggers like this in reminding markets of the sell America trade, that will eventually keep chipping away at the consolidative resistance and allow for precious metals to break free again in due time. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold and silver’s recent pullback is pausing, but don’t get too comfortable just yet. The volatility we’ve seen lately suggests that traders should remain cautious. While the current breather might seem like a relief, it’s crucial to remember that these markets are still sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation data and interest rate movements. If inflation continues to rise, we could see renewed buying pressure in precious metals as a hedge. Watch for key resistance levels; if gold breaks above its recent highs, it could signal a shift in momentum. On the flip side, if it fails to hold these levels, we might see a deeper correction. Keep an eye on the daily charts for any signs of reversal patterns or volume spikes. The sentiment around these assets can shift quickly, especially with upcoming economic reports. Traders should be ready to adjust their positions based on how these factors unfold in the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Monitor gold’s resistance levels closely; a break above recent highs could indicate a bullish shift, while failure to hold may lead to further declines.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices plunged yesterday at the open following a couple of positive developments over the weekend. In fact, a top Iranian security official said that a structure for negotiations with the US was being set up and Trump confirmed later that Iran was seriously talking to US. Moreover, an Iranian official stated that media reports of plans for revolutionary guards to hold military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were wrong. These events eased the geopolitical risk premium and weighed on oil prices. Yesterday, it was announced that US and Iran will hold talks in Istanbul on Friday. Meanwhile, OPEC+ held output steady as expected over the weekend which is a good thing for oil prices in the bigger picture as an improvement in demand without more output hikes should support the market. As mentioned last week, it’s not just the US-Iran tensions supporting the oil market, but there’s also the demand part. Yesterday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin and the new orders index jumped to the best levels since 2022. Unless we get more output hikes from OPEC+ or the market starts to bet on Fed’s rate hikes, oil prices will likely remain supported.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil eventually reached the 66.00 handle and pulled back as the sellers stepped in to target new lows. The break below the 62.37 level saw more sellers piling in to extend the drop into the 58.80 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will either step in around the 58.80 support or wait for a break above the 62.37 level again to position for a rally into new highs.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 58.80 support next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action with the consolidation between the 62.37 level and the trendline. The buyers will look for a break above the 62.37 level to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break below the trendline to extend the drop into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Oil prices dropped sharply after news of potential US-Iran negotiations, and here’s why that matters: Traders should pay close attention to how geopolitical developments can shift market sentiment. The recent comments from Iranian officials about negotiations with the US suggest a thawing in relations, which could lead to increased oil supply if sanctions are lifted. This is particularly relevant as we approach the end of the month, a time when traders often reassess positions based on new information. If oil prices continue to slide, watch for key support levels that could trigger further selling or buying opportunities. But don’t overlook the flip side: if negotiations stall or tensions escalate, we could see a rapid reversal in oil prices. Traders should monitor the $70 per barrel mark closely, as a break below this level could signal a bearish trend. Keep an eye on related assets like energy stocks and ETFs, which often react to oil price movements. The next few days will be crucial—stay alert for any updates on the negotiation front. 📮 Takeaway Watch for oil prices around $70; a break below could signal further declines, while news on US-Iran talks may create volatility.

Gold (XAU/USD) stabilises on Monday with dip-buying interest emerging after a sharp correction from last week’s surge to fresh all-time highs near $5,600. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,705, recovering after an intraday slide of nearly 10% to over three-week lows near $4,402. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s recent volatility is a wake-up call for traders: here’s why. After hitting record highs near $5,600, the sharp correction to around $4,705 signals a potential shift in market sentiment. The nearly 10% drop to $4,402 indicates strong selling pressure, but the subsequent recovery suggests dip-buying interest is alive. Traders should keep an eye on the $4,600 level as a critical support zone; a sustained move below this could trigger further selling, while a bounce could signal a bullish reversal. This volatility in gold could also impact correlated assets like silver and cryptocurrencies, particularly if investors seek safety amid market uncertainty. But here’s the flip side: the rapid recovery could be a trap. If gold fails to maintain momentum above $4,700, we might see a retest of lower levels. Watch for volume spikes around these price points, as they could indicate institutional interest or panic selling. Keep your charts ready for the next few days; the market’s reaction to these levels will be crucial. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the $4,600 support level in gold; a break could signal further downside, while a bounce may indicate a bullish reversal.

Middle East trade is experiencing significant growth, projected to increase by 15% compared to 9% globally from 2021 to 2024. Asia is expected to dominate this trade corridor, expanding from USD 0.9 trillion in 2024 to USD 1.5 trillion by 2030. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Middle East trade growth is outpacing global trends, and here’s why that matters for traders: With a projected 15% increase in trade from 2021 to 2024, compared to 9% globally, this shift indicates a robust demand for commodities and services in the region. Asia’s expected rise from USD 0.9 trillion to USD 1.5 trillion by 2030 suggests a significant influx of capital and resources, which could impact forex pairs tied to Middle Eastern currencies. Traders should keep an eye on currency fluctuations, especially in oil-related assets, as increased trade often correlates with higher oil prices, affecting USD and other currencies tied to energy markets. But don’t overlook potential risks. Rapid growth can lead to volatility, especially if geopolitical tensions arise or if supply chain issues emerge. Watch for key economic indicators from both the Middle East and Asia, such as trade balance figures and GDP growth rates, which could signal shifts in market sentiment. For immediate action, monitor the USD/Middle Eastern currency pairs closely, as they may react sharply to any news related to trade agreements or economic forecasts. 📮 Takeaway Watch the USD/Middle Eastern currency pairs closely; increased trade could lead to volatility, especially if geopolitical tensions rise.

USD/JPY trades higher at the start of the week and hovers around 155.60 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.55% on the day. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight USD/JPY’s rise to 155.60 signals potential volatility ahead for forex traders. The 0.55% increase suggests renewed bullish sentiment, likely driven by shifts in U.S. monetary policy expectations. With the Fed’s recent hints at maintaining higher interest rates, traders should keep an eye on how this impacts the yen, particularly as Japan’s central bank remains dovish. If USD/JPY breaks above 156.00, it could trigger further buying, while a drop below 155.00 might signal a reversal. Look for economic data releases this week, especially U.S. inflation figures, which could add fuel to the fire. But here’s the flip side: if the market overreacts to any hawkish signals, we could see a sharp pullback. Keep your charts handy and watch for key levels around 156.00 and 155.00 to gauge market sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Watch USD/JPY closely; a break above 156.00 could lead to further gains, while a drop below 155.00 may indicate a reversal.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as renewed Greenback strength and falling Oil prices weigh on the commodity-linked Loonie. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.3676, up about 0.44% on the day. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The CAD’s decline against the USD is a clear signal for traders to reassess their positions in commodity-linked currencies. With USD/CAD trading around 1.3676 and showing a 0.44% increase, the strength of the Greenback is being fueled by broader economic indicators, including rising interest rates and a robust labor market. Falling oil prices are compounding the CAD’s woes, as Canada is heavily reliant on oil exports. Traders should keep an eye on the correlation between oil prices and the CAD; if oil continues to slide, we could see further weakness in the Loonie. On the flip side, if the USD starts to show signs of weakness, perhaps due to upcoming economic data or geopolitical tensions, the CAD could rebound. For now, watch the 1.3700 resistance level on USD/CAD; a break above could signal further upside. Conversely, if oil prices stabilize or increase, it might provide a lifeline for the CAD. Keep an eye on the daily charts for volatility spikes as these factors play out. 📮 Takeaway Watch for USD/CAD to break above 1.3700 for potential further gains, while oil price movements could impact CAD’s recovery.