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Figure Heloc 📰 DMK AI Summary Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has been nominated by US President Donald Trump to replace Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve chair. This nomination sets the stage for a contentious Senate confirmation process. Warsh, known for his critical stance on loose monetary policy, has also shown a more positive outlook on Bitcoin compared to Powell. 💬 DMK Insight Warsh’s nomination signals a potential shift towards a more hawkish monetary policy under the Trump administration. His views on Bitcoin and market discipline could bring a new perspective to the Federal Reserve. Traders and investors are already adjusting risk assets in anticipation of a different approach from the central bank. 📊 Market Content Warsh’s nomination has led to a reevaluation of risk assets, such as Bitcoin, and a sell-off in gold. The market is reacting to the possibility of a more hawkish Fed chair and concerns about a potential US government shutdown. Investors will closely monitor Senate confirmation hearings to gauge the direction of future monetary policy.
UAE firm bought 49% of Trump-linked crypto startup for $500M: WSJ
A Tahnoon-backed Abu Dhabi entity reportedly agreed to buy 49% of World Liberty Financial for $500 million just days before Donald Trump returned to the White House. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight This $500 million investment in World Liberty Financial signals a potential shift in market dynamics, especially with Trump’s return to power looming. For traders, this could indicate renewed interest in financial services and related sectors, particularly if regulatory changes are on the horizon. The backing from a prominent entity like Tahnoon suggests confidence in the growth potential of this investment, which might ripple through the broader market. Keep an eye on how this affects sentiment in the financial sector and related assets, as institutional moves like this often precede larger trends. If you’re trading in financial stocks, watch for any technical breakouts or shifts in volume that could signal a broader bullish trend, especially in the wake of political changes. The next few weeks could be pivotal as market participants react to these developments. 📮 Takeaway Watch for shifts in financial sector stocks as Trump’s return could trigger regulatory changes, impacting investor sentiment and trading strategies.
Bitcoin bear market nearly over? Key BTC metric undercuts 2022 low
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score has fallen to its lowest level on a rolling two-year basis, placing BTC in a more “undervalued” zone than during prior bear-market lows. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score hitting a two-year low signals potential undervaluation, and here’s why that matters: When the MVRV Z-score dips, it often indicates that the asset is trading below its intrinsic value, suggesting a buying opportunity for savvy traders. Historically, similar dips have preceded significant price recoveries, making this a critical juncture for BTC holders. With Bitcoin currently at $78,564, traders should monitor for a reversal pattern on the daily charts, especially if it can hold above key support levels. A bounce from this undervalued zone could attract institutional interest, potentially driving prices higher. But don’t overlook the flip side: if the broader market sentiment remains bearish, even undervalued assets can continue to decline. Keep an eye on related assets like Ethereum, which often moves in tandem with Bitcoin. Watch for any signs of correlation or divergence in their price movements, as this could provide insights into market sentiment. The next few weeks will be crucial; if BTC can reclaim and sustain levels above $80,000, it could signal a more robust recovery phase ahead. 📮 Takeaway Watch for Bitcoin to hold above $80,000 to confirm a potential recovery from its current undervalued state.
SOL drops to $95 as Bitcoin, AI stocks and gold sell off: Will traders buy the dip?
SOL falls to lows not seen since April 2025, but Solana’s price-to-fundamentals gap and its wider correlation to macro markets may provide hope for investors. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight SOL’s drop to lows not seen since April 2025 is a wake-up call for traders. The price-to-fundamentals gap suggests that while sentiment is bearish, the underlying technology and ecosystem of Solana remain robust. This divergence could attract value investors looking for entry points, especially if SOL can stabilize around the current level of $104.85. Keep an eye on macroeconomic indicators, as Solana’s performance is closely tied to broader market trends. If the overall crypto market sees a rebound, SOL could follow suit, but it’s crucial to monitor resistance levels around $110 and support at $100. On the flip side, if bearish sentiment persists, SOL could test lower levels, which might trigger stop-loss orders and further selling pressure. The real story is whether Solana can reclaim its footing in a challenging market environment. Watch for volume spikes around these key levels to gauge trader sentiment and potential reversals. 📮 Takeaway Traders should watch for SOL to hold above $100 for potential recovery, while resistance at $110 could signal a bullish reversal.
US Treasury sanctions Iran-linked crypto exchanges in first Iran-related designations
The US Treasury sanctioned two UK-registered crypto exchanges tied to Iran, in OFAC’s first move against digital asset platforms under Iran sanctions. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US Treasury’s sanctions on UK crypto exchanges linked to Iran are a game changer for traders. This move signals a tightening regulatory environment that could impact liquidity and trading strategies across the crypto market. Traders should be wary of potential volatility as these sanctions could lead to increased scrutiny on other exchanges, especially those with international ties. If you’re holding positions in crypto assets, keep an eye on how this affects trading volumes and market sentiment. The broader implications could ripple into related markets, including forex, as geopolitical tensions often influence currency valuations. Watch for any immediate reactions from major exchanges and consider adjusting your risk exposure. The next few days could see significant price movements as traders digest this news and its potential fallout. 📮 Takeaway Monitor trading volumes and sentiment in crypto markets closely; sanctions could trigger volatility and impact liquidity in the coming days.
Coinbase shareholder lawsuit over alleged insider trading allowed to proceed
A shareholder suit claims Coinbase insiders, including Armstrong and Andreessen-linked entities, sold nearly $3 billion in stock. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Coinbase insiders selling nearly $3 billion in stock raises serious red flags for traders. This lawsuit could shake investor confidence, especially as SOL is currently at $105.05. If the market perceives this as a sign of instability within Coinbase, we might see a ripple effect across the crypto sector, impacting related assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin. Traders should keep an eye on how this news influences trading volumes and sentiment in the coming days. A significant drop in SOL could signal broader market weakness, especially if it breaks below key support levels. Watch for any reactions from institutional investors, as their moves could dictate short-term price action. On the flip side, this situation might present a buying opportunity if SOL holds strong despite the news. Historically, stocks facing legal challenges can rebound if the fundamentals remain intact. So, it’s worth monitoring SOL’s price action closely over the next week to gauge market sentiment and potential recovery. 📮 Takeaway Watch for SOL to maintain above $100; a drop below could signal broader market weakness, while holding strong might present a buying opportunity.
Trump nominates crypto-friendly Kevin Warsh as Fed chair
US President Donald Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, setting up a Senate confirmation fight. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh could shake up market expectations around Fed policy. Warsh, known for his more hawkish stance, might signal a shift in interest rate strategy, especially if confirmed. Traders should be on alert for volatility in both equity and forex markets as speculation builds around potential rate hikes. If Warsh advocates for tighter monetary policy, we could see the dollar strengthen against major currencies, impacting pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Keep an eye on the Senate confirmation timeline; any delays or pushback could create uncertainty, leading to market swings. However, there’s a flip side: if Warsh’s nomination faces significant opposition, it could lead to a more dovish outcome if Powell remains in charge. This scenario might keep interest rates lower for longer, which could support risk assets. Watch for key economic indicators like inflation data and employment reports leading up to the confirmation vote, as these will influence market sentiment and positioning. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the Senate confirmation timeline for Warsh; a swift confirmation could lead to a stronger dollar and volatility in forex pairs like EUR/USD.
Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE, BoJ, China Activity Data, Flash PMIs, Canada and Japan CPI
Mon: US Holiday (MLK Day), Eurogroup Summit; EZ Final HICP (Dec), Canadian CPI (Dec), Chinese GDP (Q4), US Leading index (Oct), Housing Starts/Building Permits (Oct), Philadelphia Fed (Jan), New Home Sales (Nov), Australian Flash PMIs (Jan)Tue: PBoC LPR, EU Economic & Financial Affairs Council, UK Unemployment Rate & Average Earnings (Nov), Swiss Producer Prices (Dec), German ZEW (Jan), French & German Flash PMIs (Jan)Wed: IEA OMR; UK CPI (Dec)Thu: ECB Minutes (Dec), Norges Bank Policy Announcement, CBRT Policy Announcement; UK PSNB (Dec), Australian Employment (Dec), US PCE (Nov), US GDP/PCE Final (Q3), New Zealand CPI (Q4), Japanese CPI (Dec)Fri: BoJ Policy Announcement; UK Retail Sales (Dec), Canadian Retail Sales (Nov), US Durable Goods (Nov), Pending Home Sales (Dec), UK, EZ and US Flash PMIs (Jan), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Jan)Chinese GDP and Activity Data (Mon): China will publish Q4 and full-year GDP with December activity figures, with Q4 growth seen easing to 4.4% Y/Y from 4.8% in Q3, the softest pace in roughly three years. 2025 growth is estimated near 4.9%, broadly in line with the official ~5% goal, underpinned by exports and policy support, while domestic demand remains subdued amid a prolonged property slump and lingering deflationary pressures. Beyond 2025, economists see growth moderating to 4.5% in 2026, heightening expectations for policy support. Markets anticipate a 10bp rate cut in Q1 by the PBoC, alongside a proactive fiscal stance from Beijing. Key risks stem from intensifying global trade frictions and export headwinds; any shortfall in external demand could trigger additional domestic stimulus.Canadian CPI (Mon): With the BoC at the lower end of its neutral estimate, the central bank is expected to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, with markets leaning towards the next move being a rate hike. Around 12bps of hikes are currently priced in by year-end, implying a 48% probability of a rate increase in 2026. The data will be used to help gauge rate expectations from the BoC; however, ING says market pricing for a rate hike this year is premature. “In our view, market pricing for a rate hike in late 2026 looks premature. Inflation isn’t showing worrying signs, the labour market may loosen further, and the upcoming USMCA renegotiations could dampen consumer and business sentiment again.” ING nonetheless expects the next move to be a hike, but in 2027.PBoC LPR (Tue): Seen as a non-event, with both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) expected to be maintained. In the previous release, the PBoC announced no changes to China’s benchmark LPRs, keeping them unchanged for a seventh consecutive month. The one-year LPR, the benchmark for most new loans, was held at 3.00%, while the five-year LPR, the reference rate for mortgages, remained at 3.50%.UK Unemployment/Earnings (Tue): Note, a Bloomberg report suggests the ONS has drawn up contingency plans to delay the new LFS by around six months, a point that may be updated in the November release. For November, the Unemployment rate is expected to moderate a touch to 5% (prev. 5.1%). However, due to reliability issues, the ONS points us to the non-overlapping comparison, which Investec thinks would show an unemployment rate of 4.8%. Overall, though, the message of a weaker labour market remains, but at a slower pace of decline. Wages are expected to moderate to 4.4% (prev. 4.7%) for the headline, while the ex-bonus figure is seen ticking down by 0.1pps to 4.5%. Data that is consistent with further BoE easing, though the still absolute high level of wages pushes back on the argument for near-term cuts. Further out, this trend is seen continuing with the December PMIs pointing to “worry jobs data”, even once the post-Budget uncertainty had begun to clear. Market pricing implies a cut in June with c. 29bps implied; though, April’s odds stand at around 21bps. More generally, we will get fresh information at the time of the February MPR, when the BoE updates its forecasts to account for the Budget.UK CPI (Wed): Prices in December are expected to increase to 3.3% Y/Y (prev. 3.2%), with the M/M figure at 0.4% (prev. -0.2%). Upside driven by measures in the Autumn Budget, namely tobacco duties. For reference, the BoE’s forecast for the period is 3.5%, as per the November MPR; as a reminder, the BoE’s February MPR will account for the measures announced in the Budget. The December meeting saw the BoE note that the Budget’s measures will lower CPI modestly in April 2026, but then increase it by 0.1-0.2pps during 2027 and 2028. The collection period will factor into the release to a degree, with a later collection of data in December almost certainly correlated with higher airfares and, by extension, elevated inflation. For December, the period’s PMIs showed a strengthening in inflationary pressures as 2025 closed out, with input prices lifting by the most in seven months and output charges rebounding. Overall, the skew to the series is a hotter one, particularly given the BoE’s forecast and potential near-term impact of tobacco duties. For the BoE, the assessment that inflation will get to target mid-2026 should remain intact, even if there is a hotter one-off print. As such, the narrative of continued easing but at a potentially slower than quarterly pace will likely remain, with the next cut not priced until June (-29bps implied).US PCE (Thu):The Bureau of Economic Analysis said US personal income and outlays for October and November 2025, including PCE inflation data (the Fed’s preferred gauge), will be released on 22nd January. The BEA was unable to produce normal monthly PCE inflation data during the government shutdown because of missing data sources and will approximate October and November PCE using CPI averages. Analysts said differences between CPI and PCE mean November CPI may disproportionately influence the delayed and partly modelled PCE inflation estimates. In November, headline producer prices rose 0.2% M/M, with annual PPI running at around 3.0%. Meanwhile, November CPI showed inflation of 2.7% Y/Y, undershooting expectations and partly distorted by missing data collection during the shutdown. Looking ahead
Sam Bankman-Fried turns up Trump support following Ellison’s release
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried said in a series of recent X posts that US president Donald Trump was “right on crypto,” while Joe Biden “bungled crypto.” 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Sam Bankman-Fried’s recent comments on crypto and political leadership are stirring the pot, and here’s why that matters: In a market where sentiment can swing on a dime, endorsements or criticisms from influential figures can impact trader psychology. Bankman-Fried’s praise for Trump and critique of Biden could resonate with certain factions of the crypto community, potentially influencing trading behavior. If traders perceive a shift in political support for crypto under Trump, we might see increased buying pressure, especially if it aligns with upcoming regulatory discussions. Conversely, negative sentiment towards Biden could lead to a sell-off among those who feel his administration is less favorable to crypto. It’s worth noting that political narratives can often overshadow fundamental market indicators. Traders should keep an eye on how these comments affect market sentiment, particularly around key resistance levels. For instance, if Bitcoin approaches a critical level and positive sentiment builds, we could see a breakout. Watch for any shifts in trading volume or volatility as these political narratives unfold, especially in the coming weeks as the election cycle ramps up. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Bitcoin’s price action around key resistance levels; political narratives could drive volatility in the coming weeks.
CoreWeave shows how crypto-era infrastructure quietly became AI’s backbone
From crypto mining to AI compute, former cryptocurrency miners are reshaping data center economics as Big Tech’s grip on infrastructure begins to loosen. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Former crypto miners are pivoting to AI compute, and here’s why that matters: as Big Tech’s hold on data centers weakens, we could see a shift in resource allocation and pricing dynamics. This transition could lead to increased competition in the data center market, potentially lowering costs for AI services. Traders should keep an eye on companies involved in both crypto mining and AI, as they might benefit from this trend. Additionally, if more miners turn to AI, we could see a ripple effect on energy prices and demand for GPUs, which are critical for both sectors. Watch for any announcements from major tech firms regarding partnerships or investments in AI infrastructure, as these could signal shifts in market sentiment and trading opportunities. However, there’s a flip side: if the transition doesn’t materialize as expected, we might see volatility in stocks tied to these sectors. Keeping an eye on the performance of related assets, like Nvidia or AMD, could provide insights into broader market trends. Look for key price levels and trading volumes in these stocks to gauge market sentiment moving forward. 📮 Takeaway Watch for announcements from tech firms on AI infrastructure investments, as they could signal shifts in market dynamics affecting related stocks like Nvidia and AMD.