Prior +1.1%HICP +1.2% vs +1.2% y/y prelimPrior +1.1%The changes in headline annual inflation is light with core annual inflation keeping stable at 1.7% in December. On average, Italian consumer price inflation is seen growing by 1.5% in 2025. And that’s a step up from the 1.0% back in 2024. That being said, it’s in a sweet spot so to speak in keeping just under the key 2% threshold.As for core inflation though, it is seen growing by 1.9% in 2025 compared to the 2.0% in 2024. So, it is in a similar spot and reaffirms a “healthier” inflation picture in Italy.If this was Germany, the ECB would be extremely happy with the numbers. But alas, that is not the case. As things stand, the biggest concern to the inflation picture in the euro area remains that of Germany’s and also to some extent Spain’s at the moment.The more stubborn price pressures there are not allowing for further monetary policy easing, with the situation in Germany being watched closely amid potential stagflation fears. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Italy’s inflation numbers are stable, but here’s why that matters for traders: With core inflation holding steady at 1.7% and a projected rise to 1.5% in 2025, traders should keep an eye on how these figures influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy. Stability in inflation can lead to a more cautious approach from the ECB regarding interest rate hikes, impacting the euro and related currency pairs. If inflation remains subdued, it could signal a longer period of low rates, which might keep the euro under pressure against stronger currencies like the USD. Also, consider how these inflation trends could ripple through the broader market. If Italy’s inflation remains low, it could affect bond yields and equity markets, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rates. Watch for any shifts in ECB rhetoric or policy adjustments, especially if inflation deviates from these projections. Key levels to monitor include the EUR/USD pair around 1.05, as a break below could indicate further weakness in the euro. Traders should also keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases that could influence market sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Watch the EUR/USD pair around 1.05; a break below could signal further euro weakness as inflation trends influence ECB policy.

EC Markets, a multi-regulated global trading provider trusted by traders worldwide, has released the teaser for Hold or Trade, its new creative collaboration with Premier League champions Liverpool FC.The teaser offers a bold first look at a campaign built on a simple but powerful idea: the decisions that define every outcome. Whether it’s a split-second pass on the pitch or a pivotal move in the markets, both worlds revolve around instinct, discipline, and timing.Blending dramatic football action with dynamic market visuals, the teaser sets the stage for a larger narrative exploring how high-performers think when pressure rises, and what separates holding your ground from making your move.“Hold or Trade is about mindset, the instinct, discipline, and awareness behind every major decision,” said Laoura Salveta, Head of Brand Partnerships at EC Markets. “We’re drawing a direct line between decisive moments in football and decisive moments in trading. This teaser is only the beginning of a much larger, immersive experience we’re bringing to fans and traders around the world.”The full campaign will roll out in phases, featuring Liverpool FC players, behind-the-scenes content, educational resources, interactive experiences, and more.Watch the teaser here! This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight So EC Markets is teaming up with Liverpool FC, and here’s why that matters: this partnership could influence trader sentiment and market behavior. As sports sponsorships often boost brand visibility, EC Markets might see increased engagement from retail traders who are fans of the club. This could lead to a surge in trading volume, particularly among those who resonate with the campaign’s message about decision-making in trading. But it’s worth noting that while the partnership may create excitement, traders should remain cautious. Increased visibility doesn’t always translate to immediate financial benefits. Watch for how this campaign unfolds over the next few weeks, especially in terms of user engagement metrics and any promotional offers that might arise. If EC Markets can effectively leverage this partnership, it could lead to a bullish sentiment in their trading platform, impacting related assets in the forex market. Keep an eye on trading volumes and any shifts in user demographics as this campaign progresses. 📮 Takeaway Monitor EC Markets’ trading volume and user engagement in the coming weeks to gauge the impact of their Liverpool FC partnership.

KEY POINTS:Gold remains stuck in a tight consolidation awaiting a breakoutMixed signals from US data leads to uncertainty on future Fed interest rates pathFed members are keeping a neutral stance with no clear hint on the timing for the next moveUS-Iran tensions remain in the spotlightTraders are still awaiting the US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffsFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold continues to consolidate around the all-time highs as traders await new catalysts for the next direction. We have been getting some mixed signals in terms of US data recently that might have capped the momentum. In fact, US core inflation missed expectations leading to a slightly dovish repricing, but the strong US jobless claims yesterday erased those bets. Fed members have been keeping a neutral stance with no clear signal on the timing of the next cut.On the geopolitical front, eyes are mainly on the US-Iran tensions. We got a small pullback in gold on Wednesday after Trump seemed to suggest that a military action was no longer on the table, but we also got reports from Fox News yesterday saying that US military assets were heading to the Middle East. This uncertainty is keeping traders on the edge. Lastly, we are still awaiting the US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs which could lead to some downside in gold in the short-term in case tariffs are struck down. In fact, such a decision would ease stagflation risks and raise global growth prospects.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is still consolidating above the top trendline. The buyers continue to pile in with a defined risk below the trendline to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the trendline to target a pullback into the bottom trendline around the 4300 level. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation above the top trendline. We can also see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new record highs with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is confined in a tight channel above the top trendline. The buyers will look for dip-buying opportunities around the bottom of the channel and the trendline, while the sellers will look for downside breaks to pile in for new lows and target the next major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the November US Retail Sales and US PPI reports, so it’s going to be old data. The market will likely focus on the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s stuck in consolidation, and here’s why that matters for traders: With gold hovering around key levels, traders are feeling the pressure as mixed signals from U.S. economic data create uncertainty about the Fed’s next moves. The lack of clarity from Fed members means we could see volatility spike if new data emerges. If gold breaks above its current range, it could trigger a wave of buying, especially if geopolitical tensions, like those between the U.S. and Iran, escalate. On the flip side, a failure to break out could lead to a sell-off, particularly if risk appetite shifts back to equities. Traders should keep an eye on gold’s resistance around $145 and support near $140. A decisive move either way could set the tone for the next few weeks. Also, watch for any economic indicators that might sway Fed sentiment—those could be the catalysts for a breakout or breakdown in gold prices. 📮 Takeaway Monitor gold’s resistance at $145 and support at $140; a breakout or breakdown could signal significant market moves.

The firm expects the BOJ to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% in the first monetary policy meeting to start the new year. They also expect the central bank to stick to its existing forward guidance, offering up no major changes in that regard. Barclays notes that the BOJ should still continue to reaffirm hiking rates further “in accordance with improvement in economic activity and prices […] given that real interest rates are at significantly low levels”.Additionally, they point out that the selloff in the yen currency will also be a factor in the central bank’s decision.”Both the government and the BOJ are wary of JPY depreciation, but the BOJ aims to avoid rate hikes that appear driven primarily by FX considerations.”Well, they aren’t wrong there. A pressure-driven move to raise interest rates, however it may be disguised, won’t go down all too well if the fundamental drivers are still working against the currency. The Takaichi trade and fiscal risks remain the main issue:That being said, Barclays does expect the BOJ to still want to flaunt its flexibility on policy options. That despite pressure from the government in not wanting the central bank to raise interest rates further for the time being. The Takaichi administration just simply does not want policymakers to take action that will run against her fiscal plans but at some point, will it be necessary just to counteract the yen depreciation? We shall see.In any case, Barclays notes that: “We expect the growth and inflation scenario to take on a somewhat positive tone to set the stage for flexibly raising rates going forward.”So essentially, they are anticipating the BOJ to keep a more bullish outlook ahead of the spring wage negotiations in March in order to tee up a potential rate hike then. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The BOJ’s decision to maintain a 0.75% policy rate is crucial for forex traders, especially those focusing on JPY pairs. With no major shifts expected in forward guidance, traders should brace for continued volatility in the yen. This stability could lead to a stronger USD/JPY as traders seek yield in a low-rate environment. If the BOJ surprises the market with any hints of tightening in future meetings, it could trigger significant moves. Watch for key levels around 145 for USD/JPY; a break above could signal a bullish trend. Conversely, if the BOJ hints at prolonged easing, it might push the yen lower against major currencies. Keep an eye on economic indicators from Japan and the US, as they could influence market sentiment leading up to the BOJ’s meeting. 📮 Takeaway Watch USD/JPY closely; a break above 145 could signal a bullish trend if the BOJ maintains its rate.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar strengthened yesterday following strong US Jobless Claims data. Traders responded by erasing the dovish bets seen after the softer than expected US core inflation data. The total easing by year-end fell to 48 bps compared to 54 bps before the release. Fed members continue to support the current patient and data-dependent stance, and the improvement in jobs data is underpinning the greenback. This bullish dollar momentum will likely persist or even accelerate if the data keeps on strengthening. INR:The Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US Dollar, and the latest technical breakout increased the momentum as RBI’s interventions continue to fail.The latest India’s annual inflation rate increased to 1.33% in December compared to 0.71% in November. This is still way below the RBI’s 4% target but closer to the bottom of their tolerance band at 2%. Traders don’t expect the RBI to deliver another rate cut at the upcoming meeting in February. On the trade front, traders are watching for potential tariff hikes on India after Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on any country doing business with Iran as the US President continues to put pressure on the regime. India has been among the largest Iran’s trade partners in recent years, so traders are watching for the risk of another escalation. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR finally broke above the key resistance zone around the 90.40 level. The buyers piled in more aggressively on the breakout targeting a rally into the upper bound of the channel around the 92.00 handle. This remains a buy-on-dips market, so the sellers will likely need to wait for the price to come into the upper bound of the channel or break below the bottom trendline.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly how the breakout led to a quick surge as buyers piled in with more conviction. If we get a pullback into the resistance now turned support, we can expect the buyers to step back in with a defined risk below the support to keep pushing into the upper bound of the channel. The sellers, on the other hand, will need the price to fall back below the support to pile in for a deeper pullback into the lower bound of the channel. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for dip-buying opportunities around the 90.40 support, while the sellers will continue to wait for a break lower. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US Dollar’s recent strength signals a shift in trader sentiment, and here’s why that’s crucial right now: With jobless claims coming in stronger than expected, traders are recalibrating their expectations for Federal Reserve easing. The reduction in anticipated easing from 54 bps to 48 bps indicates a growing belief that the Fed may maintain a tighter monetary policy for longer. This could lead to a stronger dollar in the near term, impacting forex pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Traders should keep an eye on how this plays out in the coming weeks, especially as we approach key economic indicators like the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report. If the dollar continues to strengthen, it could trigger a sell-off in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, which often move inversely to the dollar’s strength. On the flip side, if the Fed signals a more dovish stance in the future, we could see a quick reversal. Watch for any comments from Fed officials that might hint at a change in policy direction. For now, the dollar’s strength is something to monitor closely, especially around the 1.05 level for EUR/USD, which could act as a significant resistance point. 📮 Takeaway Watch the EUR/USD around the 1.05 level; a stronger dollar could trigger a sell-off in risk assets if the Fed maintains a tighter policy.

United States Export Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.2%) in November 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The U.S. Export Price Index rising to 0.5% is a signal for traders to reassess inflation expectations and currency valuations. A higher export price index can indicate stronger demand for U.S. goods, which could lead to a stronger dollar. This is especially relevant as traders are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. If inflation continues to rise, the Fed may feel pressured to maintain or increase rates, impacting forex pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Watch for potential resistance levels around 1.10 for EUR/USD and support near 145 for USD/JPY as traders react to these inflation signals. On the flip side, if the market overreacts to this data, we could see a pullback in the dollar as traders take profits. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators that could confirm or contradict this inflation trend, particularly next week’s CPI report. The immediate focus should be on how the dollar reacts in the next few trading sessions, especially if it breaks key technical levels. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the dollar’s performance against major pairs, especially EUR/USD at 1.10 and USD/JPY at 145, for potential trading opportunities following the export price index data.