Full year data out from China. 2025 yuan-denominated:Exports +6.1% y/y Imports +0.5% y/y Two-way trade value at 45.47 trln yuan, +3.8% y/y. A record high. Of more interest is the December trade trade, yet to re released. I’ll post separately. ADDED: Here it is. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s trade data shows exports up 6.1% and imports just 0.5%, signaling potential shifts in global demand. For traders, this disparity could impact commodity prices and currency pairs, especially if the yuan strengthens against the dollar. A record two-way trade value of 45.47 trillion yuan indicates robust economic activity, but the sluggish import growth raises questions about domestic consumption. If December’s trade figures reveal further weaknesses, we might see volatility in related markets, particularly in commodities like copper and oil, which are sensitive to Chinese demand. Keep an eye on the USD/CNY pair; a break below key support levels could indicate a stronger yuan, while resistance levels might suggest a bearish outlook for the currency. Watch for the December trade release—it could provide critical insights into the trajectory of China’s economy and its ripple effects on global markets. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the upcoming December trade data closely; it could influence USD/CNY dynamics and impact commodity prices significantly.

Summary:BOJ market operations meetings are technical, not policy-settingFocus is on bond buying and liquidity mechanicsSmall tweaks can still send strong market signalsOften used to prepare markets ahead of policy shiftsCan move JGBs, yen and equities The Financial Markets Department of the Bank of Japan will hold the “meeting on market operations” on February 26, 2026 the meeting on market operations will discuss recent market developments, BOJ operations, JGB market liquidity and functionality, money markets I wouldn’t read too much into this. I think its significant for the fact that the news of the meeting is hitting headlines at this time of rapid yen weakening. But … its not until February 26! We could be at 200 by then! I exaggerate … but we could be much higher and Japanese officials are already on edge, if they decide to act on some sort of actual intervention they won’t wait another six weeks just to get this meeting out the way. –A Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting on market operations is a technical but closely watched event that focuses on how monetary policy is implemented in financial markets, rather than the direction of policy itself.Unlike a formal BOJ policy meeting — where interest rates, yield targets or guidance are debated — a market operations meeting concentrates on the mechanics of liquidity provision. These sessions review the BOJ’s bond-buying framework, including the size, frequency and maturity buckets of Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases, as well as money-market operations such as repo facilities and collateral terms.The stated aim is to ensure smooth market functioning and effective policy transmission. In practice, however, even modest operational adjustments can carry meaningful market signals. Changes to purchase amounts at specific maturities, for example, can influence yield curves, affect bank and insurer balance sheets, and alter expectations around the BOJ’s tolerance for higher long-term rates.Markets pay particular attention because, in Japan, operational tweaks have often preceded broader policy shifts. Reducing bond purchases or increasing flexibility around operations can be interpreted as a form of “backdoor tightening,” even if the BOJ insists its overall policy stance is unchanged. As a result, these meetings can move the yen, JGB yields and equities despite their technical framing.Topics typically discussed include liquidity conditions in the JGB market, volatility at specific tenors such as the 10-year or super-long end, distortions created by sustained BOJ buying, and the impact of operations on financial institutions. Outcomes may include fine-tuning purchase schedules, adjusting the balance across maturities, or modifying repo and collateral arrangements.Importantly, a market operations meeting does not signal an imminent rate hike or policy pivot by default. But in a system where the BOJ remains a dominant market participant, changes to the “plumbing” can still shape expectations about the future path of policy.For investors, the distinction matters: while these meetings are not about tightening or easing per se, they can quietly redefine the contours of Japan’s monetary framework and influence asset prices well ahead of any formal announcement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The BOJ’s upcoming market operations meeting is a key event for traders to watch closely. While these meetings are technical in nature, the implications can ripple through JGBs, the yen, and equities. Small adjustments in bond buying can signal shifts in liquidity, which might foreshadow larger policy changes. Traders should be aware that even minor tweaks can lead to volatility in the yen and impact correlated assets like Japanese equities. If the BOJ hints at tightening or easing, it could create significant trading opportunities, especially for those focused on short-term strategies. Keep an eye on the JGB yields and the USD/JPY pair as indicators of market sentiment leading up to and following the meeting. The real story is how these operations might set the stage for future policy shifts, so be ready to react to any unexpected signals. 📮 Takeaway Watch for any changes in JGB yields and the USD/JPY pair around the BOJ meeting for potential trading signals.

Summary:China December exports and imports beat forecastsExports +6.6% y/y; imports +5.7% y/y in dollar termsDecember trade surplus $114.1bn2025 trade surplus hits $1.19tn on flat importsUS bilateral surplus eases slightly in DecemberChina closed 2025 with a stronger-than-expected trade performance, as December exports and imports both beat forecasts, underscoring the economy’s continued reliance on external demand even as domestic momentum remains uneven.Customs data showed December dollar-denominated exports rose 6.6% y/y, well above the Reuters poll forecast of 3.0% and slightly stronger than November’s 5.9% pace. Imports increased 5.7% y/y, sharply beating expectations for a modest 0.9% rise and accelerating from a 1.9% gain previously. As a result, China recorded a December trade surplus of $114.1 billion, marginally above the $113.6 billion consensus.In yuan terms, exports rose 5.2% y/y in December, while imports climbed 4.4% y/y, producing a trade surplus of CNY 808.8 billion. The divergence between dollar- and yuan-denominated figures reflects currency effects over the period but does not materially change the underlying picture of firm trade flows at year-end.For full-year 2025, China’s export performance remained resilient. Dollar-denominated exports rose 5.5% y/y, while imports were flat year-on-year, resulting in a record trade surplus of $1.189 trillion. In yuan terms, exports increased 6.1% y/y and imports edged up 0.5% y/y, with the annual trade surplus reaching CNY 8.51 trillion.The data highlight how China’s growth model continues to lean heavily on exports amid subdued domestic demand, particularly in consumption and private investment. Strong overseas shipments have been supported by competitive pricing, supply-chain dominance in manufactured goods, and continued redirection of exports toward non-U.S. markets as trade frictions persist.China’s December trade surplus with the United States narrowed slightly to $23.25 billion, from $23.74 billion in November. While the bilateral balance remains large, the modest easing suggests some rebalancing at the margin, even as trade tensions and tariff uncertainty continue to shape export patterns.Overall, the latest trade figures reinforce the view that China’s external sector remains a key stabiliser for growth heading into 2026. However, the scale of the surplus also risks intensifying trade scrutiny from major partners at a time when global protectionist pressures are rising. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s December trade data is a game changer for global markets, especially for commodities and currencies. With exports up 6.6% year-over-year and imports rising 5.7%, this signals robust demand that could influence commodity prices and related currencies. Traders should keep an eye on the implications for the Australian dollar and other commodity-linked currencies, as China’s appetite for imports often drives their performance. The $114.1 billion trade surplus also suggests that China’s economy is resilient, which could lead to a stronger yuan in the short term. However, the easing of the US bilateral surplus indicates potential shifts in trade dynamics that could affect forex positions. Watch for key resistance levels in commodity prices and the yuan against the dollar, particularly if these trends continue into Q1 2026. The real story is whether this momentum can be sustained or if it’s a short-lived spike influenced by seasonal factors. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators from both China and the US to gauge the broader impact on global markets. 📮 Takeaway Monitor China’s trade data closely; a sustained increase in imports could strengthen the yuan and impact commodity-linked currencies significantly.

Summary:Japan 5-year JGB auction clears smoothlyStop rate (the highest yield (or lowest price) at which the government accepts bids in a bond auction, the yield where the auction “stops.”) set at 1.65%, average yield 1.639%Only 0.48% of bids hit the lowest priceDemand remains firm despite higher yieldsNo immediate pressure on BOJ interventionWhat it means (in brief) Investors are comfortable buying JGBs at current yield levelsThe low share of bids at the cheapest price suggests no stressDomestic buyers are still supporting the curveThe BOJ has room to stay gradual, not reactiveJapan’s latest 5-year government bond auction delivered a solid but not spectacular outcome, reinforcing the view that demand remains intact even as yields sit near multi-year highs and the Bank of Japan continues to edge policy toward normalisation.The Ministry of Finance sold ¥1.93 trillion of 5-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) from ¥5.94 trillion of competitive bids, with the stop rate set at 1.65%. The average yield came in at 1.639%, marginally through the stop, while the average accepted price was 99.820 versus a lowest accepted price of 99.770.Importantly, just 0.48% of bids were accepted at the lowest price, signalling limited tail risk and suggesting that investors were willing to bid close to prevailing market levels rather than demanding a sharp concession. That metric points to orderly demand, particularly from domestic real-money accounts such as banks and insurers, which continue to anchor the intermediate part of the curve.The bid-to-cover ratio, implied by the volume figures, remained healthy, indicating that higher absolute yield levels are still drawing interest even as expectations build that the BOJ will further scale back accommodation over time. The 5-year sector sits at the crossroads of policy expectations and curve positioning, making it a useful barometer of confidence in the BOJ’s gradual approach.Recent volatility in the yen and rising global yields have raised questions about foreign participation, but this auction suggests domestic demand remains sufficiently strong to absorb supply without stress. That resilience reduces near-term pressure on the BOJ to step in via market operations, even as officials remain alert to disorderly moves.Overall, the result fits the broader narrative: Japan’s bond market is adjusting to a higher-yield regime, but demand remains functional and well-distributed. Unless auctions begin to show heavier tails or weaker cover ratios, the BOJ can afford to stay patient as it continues to recalibrate policy and operations. As a ps, yen has ticked back some gains (see chart at top iof post), this seems to have stymied yen selling sentiment for now:BoJ sets out what will be discussed at a February 26 market operations meeting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Japan’s latest 5-year JGB auction results are a mixed bag for traders: yields are up, but demand remains solid. The stop rate at 1.65% and an average yield of 1.639% indicate that while investors are accepting higher yields, they’re still willing to buy. This could signal a shift in sentiment, as traders weigh the implications of rising interest rates against the backdrop of Japan’s economic recovery. If this trend continues, we might see a ripple effect across other bond markets, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, where rising yields could pressure equities and other risk assets. But here’s the flip side: if demand starts to wane in future auctions, it could lead to increased volatility in the JGB market and potentially impact the yen. Traders should keep an eye on the next auction results and monitor the 1.65% level closely, as a breach could indicate a shift in market sentiment. Watch for how institutional players react to these yields, as their movements could set the tone for broader market trends. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 1.65% yield level in upcoming JGB auctions; a breach could signal shifting market sentiment and impact related assets.

Summary:Dimon says US economy remains resilientLabour market softer but not worsening materiallyConsumers still spending; businesses broadly healthyTailwinds: fiscal support, deregulation, Fed policyRisks: geopolitics, sticky inflation, high asset pricesPasting as an ICYMI. JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy remains resilient even as labour market momentum cools, arguing that consumer spending and generally healthy corporate conditions could keep activity supported for some time.In comments released alongside the bank’s latest communications, Dimon said labour markets have softened but do not appear to be deteriorating materially. He also pointed to continued consumer spending as a key pillar of growth, suggesting households have so far absorbed higher rates and price levels without a sharp pullback.Dimon said supportive conditions could persist, highlighting ongoing fiscal stimulus, the potential benefits from deregulation, and the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary policy settings as factors that may help keep the expansion intact. The message aligns with a broader “soft-landing” narrative: cooling but not collapsing labour dynamics, steady consumption, and businesses that remain broadly functional despite higher financing costs and lingering uncertainty.However, Dimon warned that markets may be underpricing the downside risks. He flagged “complex geopolitical conditions” as a potential shock vector, alongside the risk that inflation remains stickier than expected. He also pointed to elevated asset prices, implying that stretched valuations could amplify volatility if the macro environment deteriorates or if policy expectations shift.The tone was cautious rather than bearish: Dimon acknowledged the resilience in current conditions but emphasised vigilance, reflecting a view that the economy can stay firm while still being vulnerable to tail risks. For investors, his comments underscore a key tension in current pricing, a market leaning into stability and easing inflation, while major corporate leaders continue to highlight geopolitical uncertainty, inflation persistence and valuation risk as underappreciated hazards. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Dimon’s take on the U.S. economy is a mixed bag, and here’s why that matters right now: While he highlights resilience, the cooling labor market could signal a shift that traders need to watch closely. Consumer spending remains strong, but with inflation still sticky and asset prices high, the risk of a market correction looms. This environment could lead to increased volatility in both equities and forex markets, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate. Traders should keep an eye on key economic indicators like jobless claims and consumer confidence, as these will provide insight into whether the labor market continues to soften or stabilizes. If the S&P 500 starts to break below significant support levels, it could trigger a broader sell-off, impacting related assets like commodities and cryptocurrencies. Here’s the flip side: Dimon’s optimism about fiscal support and deregulation could provide a buffer against downturns, but it’s essential not to overlook the potential for a sudden market reaction to negative news. Watch for any shifts in Fed policy or unexpected geopolitical developments that could change the narrative quickly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor key economic indicators and watch for S&P 500 support levels; a break could signal broader market volatility.