Brent Crude has recovered from its April–May low around $58.40 and is now pushing toward the 200-day moving average near $65.75, a level that has capped recent rebound attempts, Société Générale’s FX analysts note. 🔗 Source

Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1640 and 1.1700. In the longer run, weakness in EUR from early last week has stabilized; for the time being, it is likely to consolidate between 1.1615 and 1.1730, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Euro’s consolidation between 1.1615 and 1.1730 is crucial for forex traders right now. With the current range indicating stabilization after recent weakness, traders should keep an eye on this level for potential breakout opportunities. If the Euro can hold above 1.1700, it might signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below 1.1615 could trigger further selling pressure. This range-bound action could also affect correlated assets like the USD, impacting pairs such as EUR/USD. Watch for any economic data releases or geopolitical events that could push the Euro out of this range, as volatility might spike around those times. The key here is to monitor these levels closely, as they could dictate short-term trading strategies, especially for day and swing traders looking for quick gains. 📮 Takeaway Watch the Euro closely; a breakout above 1.1700 or a drop below 1.1615 could signal significant trading opportunities.

United States NFIB Business Optimism Index in line with expectations (99.5) in December 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The NFIB Business Optimism Index holding steady at 99.5 signals a cautious but stable outlook for small businesses, which is crucial for traders to consider. This index reflects the sentiment of small business owners, a key driver of the U.S. economy. A stable reading suggests that while growth may not be explosive, there’s no immediate panic among small businesses. Traders should watch for how this sentiment translates into consumer spending and hiring trends, as these can impact sectors like retail and services. If optimism dips below 95, it could indicate a shift in economic conditions, prompting traders to reassess positions in related equities or sectors. On the flip side, if optimism improves significantly, it could lead to increased investment and spending, potentially boosting stocks in the small-cap sector. Keep an eye on upcoming economic reports and how they correlate with this index to gauge market sentiment more accurately. 📮 Takeaway Watch for any shifts in the NFIB index; a drop below 95 could signal economic concerns, impacting small-cap stocks significantly.

Ireland Retail Sales (MoM): 0.5% (November) vs -0.5% 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Ireland’s retail sales rebounded with a 0.5% increase in November, and here’s why that matters: This uptick could signal a shift in consumer sentiment, especially as we head into the holiday season. Traders should keep an eye on how this impacts the Eurozone’s economic outlook, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing inflation concerns. A stronger retail performance might bolster the Euro, affecting forex pairs like EUR/USD. If the trend continues, we could see a challenge to key resistance levels in the Euro, which currently sits around 1.10 against the dollar. Watch for how this data influences ECB policy discussions, as any hawkish signals could further support the Euro in the coming weeks. On the flip side, a single month of positive data doesn’t erase the broader economic challenges. If subsequent months show volatility or a downturn, it could lead to a bearish sentiment shift. So, keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators and consumer confidence metrics to gauge whether this is a sustainable trend or just a blip. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the EUR/USD pair closely; a sustained retail sales increase could push it above 1.10, while any negative follow-up data may reverse gains.

Oil prices rallied for a third consecutive day yesterday, with ICE Brent trading close to US$64/bbl. The prompt ICE Brent timepsread has also strengthened through January amid growing supply risks, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Oil’s rally to near $64/bbl signals a shift in market sentiment amid rising supply concerns. The strengthening prompt ICE Brent timespread indicates that traders are pricing in tighter supplies, which could be a reaction to geopolitical tensions or production cuts. For day traders, this could mean looking for short-term buying opportunities, especially if the price holds above $64. If Brent can break through resistance levels, it might attract more bullish sentiment. However, keep an eye on any news that could disrupt this momentum, like OPEC announcements or unexpected inventory builds. On the flip side, if prices fail to maintain this level, it could trigger a wave of profit-taking, leading to a quick pullback. Watch for key support levels around $62; a drop below that could signal a reversal. Overall, the market’s current trajectory suggests volatility, so be prepared for rapid shifts in sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Brent’s ability to hold above $64; a break could lead to bullish momentum, while a drop below $62 may trigger selling pressure.

EUR/USD is practically flat on Tuesday, trading at 1.1665 at the time of writing, after bouncing at 1.1655 lows earlier on the day. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight EUR/USD’s flat performance at 1.1665 signals indecision, but here’s why traders should pay attention: After bouncing off the 1.1655 support level, the pair is caught in a tight range, reflecting market uncertainty ahead of key economic data releases. Traders should watch for potential volatility as the Eurozone’s economic indicators are due soon, which could sway the pair decisively. If the pair breaks below 1.1655, it might trigger further selling pressure, while a push above 1.1700 could signal a bullish reversal. The current price action suggests that both buyers and sellers are waiting for a catalyst, making it crucial to monitor upcoming news and sentiment shifts. On the flip side, if the broader market sentiment shifts negatively due to geopolitical tensions or disappointing economic data, we could see a stronger dollar, which would weigh on EUR/USD. Keep an eye on the U.S. economic releases as well, as they could provide the necessary impetus for a breakout in either direction. 📮 Takeaway Watch for a break below 1.1655 or above 1.1700 in EUR/USD for potential trading signals this week.

Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 2.5% in November from previous 2.1% 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Ireland’s retail sales growth hitting 2.5% is a signal for traders to watch closely. This uptick from 2.1% could indicate a strengthening consumer sentiment, which often correlates with increased spending and economic activity. For forex traders, this might suggest a bullish outlook on the Euro against other currencies, especially if this trend continues into the holiday season. If retail sales keep climbing, it could prompt the European Central Bank to consider tightening monetary policy sooner than expected, impacting interest rates and currency valuations. Keep an eye on the EUR/USD pair for potential volatility. However, there’s a flip side to consider. If inflation pressures persist alongside this growth, consumer spending could be stifled, leading to a slowdown. Traders should monitor inflation data closely, as it could provide insight into whether this retail growth is sustainable or merely a temporary spike. Watch for key levels around 1.05 and 1.10 in EUR/USD, as these could serve as critical support or resistance points in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch the EUR/USD pair closely; if retail sales growth continues, it could signal a shift in ECB policy and impact currency valuations significantly.

Sharp rebound has scope to test 1.3495 before a pullback can be expected; 1.3520 is not expected to come under threat. In the longer run, GBP is likely in a range-trading phase between 1.3390 and 1.3520, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight GBP’s recent rebound could hit 1.3495, but traders should brace for a pullback soon. With the currency likely stuck in a range between 1.3390 and 1.3520, it’s crucial to watch these levels closely. A test of 1.3495 could attract sellers, especially if momentum indicators show signs of exhaustion. If the pair fails to break above 1.3520, it might signal a stronger pullback, potentially leading to a revisit of the lower end of the range at 1.3390. This range-bound behavior suggests a cautious approach for day traders, as volatility may remain limited. Keep an eye on economic data releases that could impact GBP sentiment, as any surprises could trigger moves beyond these established levels. 📮 Takeaway Watch for GBP to test 1.3495; a failure to break above could lead to a pullback towards 1.3390.

European Natural Gas prices surged, with TTF rising 6.6% to above €30/MWh as colder weather boosted heating demand and unrest in Iran raised concerns over LNG and pipeline supplies, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Natural gas prices are on the rise, and here’s why you should care: colder weather is pushing demand higher while geopolitical tensions add uncertainty. With TTF prices jumping 6.6% to over €30/MWh, traders need to keep an eye on how these factors could influence both short-term and long-term positions. The spike in demand for heating could lead to further price increases, especially if the cold snap persists. Additionally, unrest in Iran raises the specter of supply disruptions, which could ripple through the LNG market and affect prices globally. If you’re trading natural gas, watch for resistance levels around €32/MWh, as breaking through could signal a bullish trend. On the flip side, if the situation stabilizes, we might see a correction. It’s worth monitoring how quickly any potential supply issues resolve, as that could dictate market sentiment. Keep an eye on weather forecasts and geopolitical developments, as they could provide critical insights into price movements in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch for TTF prices around €32/MWh; sustained cold weather and geopolitical tensions could drive further gains in natural gas markets.

The USD/JPY pair revisits its one-and-a-half-year high of 159.00 during the European trading session on Tuesday. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD/JPY hitting 159.00 is a significant moment for traders, signaling potential volatility ahead. This level marks a one-and-a-half-year high, which could trigger profit-taking or increased selling pressure from those who see it as overextended. Traders should be aware that this could lead to a correction, especially if the pair fails to hold above this psychological barrier. Additionally, the broader context of rising interest rates in the U.S. versus Japan’s more dovish stance could keep the momentum going, but it also raises the risk of a sharp pullback if market sentiment shifts. Watch for key support levels around 157.50 and resistance at 160.00, as these will be critical for gauging the next move. If the pair breaks above 160.00, it could attract more buyers, but a failure to maintain above 159.00 might lead to a swift reversal. Keep an eye on economic indicators from both countries, particularly any shifts in monetary policy or inflation data, as these could influence the USD/JPY’s trajectory in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch USD/JPY closely at 159.00; a break above 160.00 could signal further upside, while a drop below 157.50 may indicate a reversal.