Mon: Japanese Holiday (Coming of Age Day); M2 & New Yuan Loans (Dec)Tue: EIA STEO; US NFIB (Dec), CPI (Dec)Wed: NBP Policy Announcement; US PPI (Nov; Oct-cancelled), US Retail Sales (Nov)Thu: UK GDP Estimate (Nov), EZ Trade (Nov), US Export/Import Prices (Dec; Nov-cancelled), NY Fed Mfg survey (Jan), Weekly Claims (w/e 3rd Jan), Chinese House Prices (Dec)Fri: US Industrial Production (Dec)US Earnings Season:Writing at the end of Q4, FactSet said the earnings season is expected to show continued, albeit moderating, growth. S&P 500 earnings are forecast to rise 8.3% Y/Y, marking a tenth straight quarter of expansion, while revenues are seen up 7.6% Y/Y, among the strongest growth rates since 2022. Estimates have been revised higher through the quarter, an atypical pattern reflecting firmer demand and less negative corporate guidance. Technology is expected to lead earnings and revenue growth, driven by semiconductors and software, with Materials also among the stronger performers. Communication Services and Health Care are forecast to post solid revenue growth. By contrast, Consumer Discretionary is expected to deliver the weakest earnings performance, weighed down by sharp declines in automobiles and household durables, while Energy revenues are projected to fall due to lower oil prices. Financials will begin reporting next week, and earnings growth expectations for the sector have improved modestly. Large banks are likely to point to stable credit quality, resilient net interest income and continued strength in capital markets activity, with insurers and brokers also contributing positively to sector results, FactSet said. In the week, numbers are due from banks including JPM, BK, BAC, WFC, C, BLK, GS, MS.US CPI (Tue):Wells Fargo expects US CPI to rebound on a monthly basis in December after November’s unusually soft reading, with headline CPI seen rising 0.35% M/M and core CPI 0.36% M/M. It expects the annual rates to hold at 2.7% Y/Y for headline inflation and 2.8% Y/Y for core, remaining below September levels and signalling a continued disinflationary trend. Wells said the December pickup largely reflects the unwinding of distortions from data-collection disruptions during the government shutdown, which amplified seasonal discounting in November. Goods prices are expected to rebound more sharply than services on holiday discount payback, while tariff pass-through appears to be moderating. Services inflation should also firm, notably in travel-related categories, while shelter inflation is seen following its pre-shutdown trend. Statistical quirks persist, particularly in housing, where CPI sampling rotations mean shutdown-related softness in shelter inflation may linger until April. Health and motor vehicle insurance prices are also expected to restrain CPI in the coming months. Among other inflation gauges, the New York Fed’s monthly survey of consumer expectations rose in December, with consumers expecting 3.4% price growth over the next year, up from 3.2% in November, while longer-term expectations were steady. In December, ISM data, manufacturing prices remained in expansion, matching November, while the services prices index fell to its lowest since March 2025, though it has still exceeded 60 for 13 straight months. Looking ahead, Wells sees inflation continuing to ease, supporting a patient Fed stance.Chinese Trade Balance (Wed): China’s December trade data are expected to cap a historically strong year after the trade surplus surpassed USD 1tn by November, underpinned by resilient exports and softer imports. Analysts at ING expect export growth to slow modestly to about 3.0% Y/Y in December, from 5.9% in November, reflecting earlier front-loading, while imports are seen rising about 1.6% Y/Y, versus 1.9% previously. ING forecasts a December surplus of about USD 118.9bn, taking the full-year 2025 surplus close to USD 1.2tn.US Retail Sales (Wed):The November retail sales data are due on Wednesday. Bank of America’s monthly consumer checkpoint data showed seasonally adjusted spending growth per household was flat M/M, while the annual rate of total credit and debit card spending per household slowed to 1.3% Y/Y, which the bank said points to solid growth but at a less robust pace than in October. Holiday item spending was strong in October and November but slowed around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, according to the data, suggesting some consumers shopped earlier for deals. The bank said consumer finances appear healthy, with little reliance on credit or buy now, pay later, although card data showed a small but rising BNPL share. It added that large gaps persist between higher- and lower-income households in spending and wage growth, with higher-income households lifting spending by 2.6% Y/Y, while lower-income groups lagged with a gain of just 0.6% Y/Y. After-tax wage growth edged up to 4% Y/Y for higher-income households and to 1.4% Y/Y for lower-income households.UK GDP (Wed):The November print follows on from a softer than expected October series, which saw the economy begin Q4 in contractionary territory at -0.1% M/M vs a 0.1% Q/Q Q3 print. A release that weighed on Sterling at the time. For Q4, the BoE expects zero growth in headline GDP, as per the December statement; note, a fuller assessment of the economy accounting for the November Budget will be provided by the BoE in the February MPR. In the context of this, the data may well be looked through to a degree, as the economy’s performance was subject to uncertainty in the pre-budget window. A point highlighted by the S&P PMI series at the time, “Survey respondents widely commented on business challenges linked to fragile client confidence, heightened risk aversion and elevated policy uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget. Many firms noted that major spending decisions had been delayed, while some also cited long-term growth headwinds from subdued investment spending”.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Upcoming economic data releases could shake up markets, and here’s why you should care: With Japan’s Coming of Age Day holiday on Monday, liquidity might be thinner, impacting forex pairs involving the yen. Traders should keep an eye on M2 and New Yuan Loans data from China, as these figures can signal shifts in monetary policy that affect global risk sentiment. On Tuesday, the

Summary:Daily Mail reports Trump has ordered US special forces to prepare invasion plans for Greenland.Senior US military leaders are resisting the plan, calling it illegal and lacking congressional backing.Advisers led by Stephen Miller are said to be pushing the idea after the Venezuela operation.British diplomats see a possible political motive ahead of US mid-term elections.European officials warn extreme scenarios could fracture NATO.For markets:Escalatory Greenland rhetoric raises geopolitical tail risks in the Arctic region.Any strain on NATO cohesion would be negative for European security confidence.Heightened geopolitical uncertainty typically supports safe-haven assets.FX volatility could rise if US-Europe relations deteriorate.Energy and defence sectors may see increased risk-premium pricing. The UK’s Sunday Daily Mail reported that US President Donald Trump has instructed his top special forces commanders to draw up contingency plans for the invasion of Greenland, a move that senior US military leaders are reportedly resisting. According to sources cited by The Mail on Sunday, advisers close to Trump, particularly political strategist Stephen Miller, have been emboldened by the recent operation to capture Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro, and want to act quickly to seize the Arctic island before Russia or China can make a move.British diplomatic sources believe Trump may also be driven by domestic political motives, hoping a dramatic foreign-policy action could distract American voters from weak economic performance ahead of this year’s mid-term elections. However, the plan has alarmed senior military figures, with the Joint Chiefs of Staff reportedly pushing back on the grounds that an invasion would be illegal and lack congressional support.One insider told the paper that generals are attempting to divert Trump’s focus toward “less controversial measures,” such as countering alleged Russian “ghost ships” or a potential strike on Iran, likening the effort to dealing with “a five-year-old.”Diplomats have reportedly war-gamed a range of scenarios, from “escalatory” use of force or coercion to sever Greenland’s ties with Denmark, to a “compromise scenario” in which Denmark grants the US expanded military access while formally barring Russia and China. A diplomatic cable cited by The Mail warned the most extreme scenario could “lead to the destruction of NATO from the inside.”According to the cable, hardline figures around Trump may see occupying Greenland as a way to force European NATO members into abandoning the alliance, since Congress would not allow the president to unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO. Under the compromise approach, Denmark would let the US expand legal military rights on the island — rights it already enjoys in practice — potentially aligning Greenland with Washington’s strategic goals.European officials reportedly believe the window for action is narrowing ahead of the mid-term elections, and have pointed to the upcoming NATO summit as a possible moment to cement a deal. A diplomatic source told the Daily Mail that British positioning will be key, noting that UK support for Europe could shape how allies respond to Trump’s proposals. Generals, meanwhile, are said to consider Trump’s Greenland plan “crazy and illegal” and are trying to distract him with other military priorities. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s Greenland invasion plans could shake geopolitical stability, impacting markets significantly. Traders should be aware that military actions or threats can lead to volatility in global markets, particularly in commodities like oil and gold. If tensions escalate, we might see a flight to safety, pushing gold prices higher and potentially affecting the USD. The resistance from military leaders indicates a split within the administration, which could create uncertainty in U.S. policy and impact investor sentiment. Keep an eye on how this situation unfolds, as it could lead to sudden market reactions, especially if Congress gets involved or if there are significant diplomatic responses from other nations. Here’s the thing: while mainstream coverage might focus on the political drama, the real story is how these actions can ripple through financial markets. Traders should monitor geopolitical news closely, especially any developments from Congress or military briefings, as these could signal shifts in market sentiment. Watch for key levels in gold and oil, as they may react sharply to any escalation in this situation. 📮 Takeaway Monitor geopolitical developments closely; any escalation could drive gold prices higher and create volatility in oil markets.