Final December reading was 53.31-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.1% prior5 year inflation 3.4% vs 3.2% priorCurrent conditions 52.4 vs 50.7 priorExpectations 55.0 vs 54.6 priorThis isn’t a great economic indicator as answers are increasingly politicized and the inflation numbers are volatile. There was a time when this was tier-2 economic data but it’s been slowly downgraded. It’s final moment in the sun was in covid when a jump in inflation expectations caused a panicky Fed to tilt towards deeper rate hikes. That jump was later revised away in an embarrassing moment for the Powell Fed.As for this report, it corresponds with a better mood from consumers. Spending over the holidays was solid, though not spectacular. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Inflation readings are showing mixed signals, and here’s why that’s crucial for traders right now: The December inflation reading at 4.2% versus 4.1% prior suggests a slight uptick, which could influence the Fed’s monetary policy. With current conditions at 52.4, up from 50.7, and expectations rising to 55.0, traders need to consider how these numbers might affect interest rates and market sentiment. If inflation continues to rise, it could lead to tighter monetary policy sooner than expected, impacting both equities and forex markets. Keep an eye on correlated assets like gold and the USD, as they often react to inflation data. But here’s the flip side: the politicization of these numbers means they might not reflect the true economic landscape. Traders should be cautious about overreacting to these figures. Watch for key levels in the S&P 500 and USD pairs, as volatility could spike around upcoming Fed meetings. The real story is how these inflation expectations play out in the coming weeks, especially if they deviate from current trends. 📮 Takeaway Monitor inflation trends closely; a sustained rise could trigger shifts in Fed policy, impacting equities and forex markets significantly.

The waiting continues.The US Supreme Court works in mysterious ways. The announced on Tuesday that this would be a ‘decision day’ but the court always has a large number of decisions to make and they don’t pre-announce which one it will be.They technically have until June to make the tariff decision but because it was an expedited hearing with important economic effects, it’s expected in January or February. As for the exact date, there is a large amount of work before the Supreme Court in the week beginning January 19, so that’s a good bet.Until then, we will continue to wait for ‘decision day’ announcements and then prepare accordingly. For stocks with large tariff exposure, this is a tough trading paradigm because we don’t know what’s coming. For what it’s worth, the administration sounds pretty confident that it can quickly reconstitute tariffs but whether those hold up may depend on what the Court says about these tariffs and the reasoning, particularly if they rule it’s a ‘major question’, which is something that needs to go through Congress.“Our ‌expectation is that ⁠we’re going to ​win, and if we don’t win, then we know that we’ve got other tools ​that we could use that get us to the same place,” Hassett said in an ⁠interview on CNBC earlier today.Hassett specified that Section 301 would be part of the mix and that Greer is leading it (itself a bit of a clue). They’ve previously said it could also include Section 122 tariffs. See: How the White House will pivot if the Supreme Court strikes down current tariffsUltimately, I think this was a good dress rehearsal but if this continues into February, it’s going to get tiresome for markets as it adds unnecessary uncertainty.The decision that was rendered today was on Bowe vs United States and the court ruled that federal prisoners are not barred from filing “do-over” claims in second or successive postconviction motions and that the Court has the jurisdiction to review such certification decisions. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US Supreme Court’s upcoming decisions could significantly impact market sentiment, especially in sectors sensitive to tariffs. Traders should keep an eye on how the court’s rulings might affect trade policies and economic indicators, as uncertainty can lead to volatility in both the forex and crypto markets. If the court leans towards upholding tariffs, expect potential ripple effects on commodities and currencies tied to trade balances. Look at the broader context: the market is already jittery with inflation concerns and interest rate hikes looming. A decision that favors tariffs could exacerbate inflation fears, leading to a stronger dollar and pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a ruling against tariffs might provide a short-term boost to equities and risk-on sentiment. For now, monitor key levels in the forex market—like the USD index and major currency pairs—as they could react sharply to any news from the court. Also, keep an eye on commodities like gold and oil, which often move inversely to the dollar. The next few weeks could be crucial, so stay alert for any signals that indicate how traders are positioning themselves ahead of these decisions. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the Supreme Court’s tariff decisions; they could trigger volatility in forex and crypto markets, especially around key levels in the USD index.

Late yesterday, Trump posted this on Truth Social:The problem is, that number didn’t match up with what had been reported in the non-farm payrolls report data that had already been released. It also came after the Council of Economic Advisors was briefed on the jobs report (usually the afternoon before the release).The numbers only make sense if you add in the data released today:Now it would have taken some fancy modeling to map this to today’s release and trade on it because there were revisions to Oct/Nov data today that would have to be factored it.That said, knowing these numbers certainly removed some of the tail risks around a very strong or very weak data point. The also highlight an administration that’s playing loose with market-moving economic data. It undermines confidence that all the jobs numbers aren’t leaked and traded on ahead of time.In terms of market reaction, the US dollar has been all over the map since the release. The kneejerk was higher on the falling unemployment, then it reversed based on large downward revisions to the jobs number but it’s reversed again and the dollar is now broadly stronger.Mixed in with that market reaction has been the Supreme Court punting on the tariff decision for the week and a Japanese report suggesting a February election is coming. We’re also dealing with flows around the start of the new year.US stock markets are higher today and that could be driving some flows as well but note that gold just broke $4500 and that speaks to some of the chaos in international affairs and leaks like this undermining confidence. Remember that the gold rally really kicked off in late August when Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the agency that releases the non-farm payrolls report. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s comments on job numbers could shake market confidence—here’s why that matters: When political figures like Trump weigh in on economic data, it can create volatility, especially in sensitive markets like forex and crypto. Traders often react to perceived discrepancies in data, and with non-farm payrolls being a key economic indicator, any confusion can lead to knee-jerk reactions. If traders believe the job numbers are being manipulated or misreported, we might see a flight to safety, impacting currencies like the USD and assets like Bitcoin. Look for potential support and resistance levels in the USD pairs. If the USD starts to weaken due to uncertainty, it could push Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies higher as investors seek alternative stores of value. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic releases and any further comments from Trump or other officials, as these could provide clues about market sentiment and direction. The next few days could be crucial for positioning, especially for those trading on short-term movements. 📮 Takeaway Watch for USD volatility in response to political commentary and prepare for potential shifts in crypto markets as traders react to economic data discrepancies.

The non-farm payrolls came in a bit softer than the whisper numbers, giving the “bad news is good news” crowd a reason to cheer. For the ECB, it doesn’t change much, but for equity bulls, it was the green light they needed to keep the momentum going.Here’s the closing scoreboard for the week ending January 9, 2026:The STOXX 600 rose 2.23% on the week, a solid performance that speaks to improving breadth across sectors. Cyclicals quietly outperformed defensives, suggesting investors are leaning into growth without fully abandoning caution.Germany’s DAX led the major benchmarks with a 2.86% weekly gain, continuing to benefit from easing energy concerns and resilience in industrial exporters. The move also reflects growing confidence that Europe’s manufacturing downturn may be stabilizing rather than accelerating.France’s CAC 40 added 1.89%, helped by strength in luxury and industrial names, while the FTSE 100 climbed 1.82%, outperforming global peers as energy and financials provided ballast.Southern Europe lagged slightly after a great year in 2025 but still finished higher. Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 0.75%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 rose 0.92%, with banks consolidating after strong year-to-date runs.That’s a solid first real trading week. There isn’t too much intrigue on the ECB front as they’ve moved to the sidelines. In politics, they’ve been hammering out a MERCOSUR (South America) trading deal and that looks like it’s heading towards completion. The hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal appear to be slipping but peace deals often come out of the blue so we will see what happens next. Russia used a hyper-sonic missile on Friday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight So, non-farm payrolls missed expectations, and here’s why that matters: it fuels the ‘bad news is good news’ narrative. When job growth slows, it often leads to speculation about the Fed pausing rate hikes, which can boost equities. This sentiment is particularly relevant for day traders looking to capitalize on short-term momentum. If the S&P 500 continues to rally, watch for key resistance levels around recent highs. However, keep an eye on related markets like bonds, where yields might drop as investors seek safety. But don’t overlook the flip side—if inflation remains sticky, the Fed might still act aggressively, which could quickly reverse any gains. Traders should monitor upcoming inflation data and Fed commentary closely. The immediate focus should be on how equities react in the next few sessions—any significant pullback could signal a shift in sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Watch for S&P 500 resistance levels; a break above recent highs could signal bullish momentum, but stay alert for inflation data that might change the narrative.

It’s time for Fed not to lose sight of inflation missionFed’s job and inflation mandates are somewhat in tensionNeed to be ‘laser focused’ on lowering inflationInflation is ‘a lot’ above the 2% targetNo hire, no fire continues to be key labor market dynamicThe job market has been cooler but it’s not clear its fundamentally weakerHearing about stress from sectors that depended on foreign workersCost pressures are not just from tariffsIt’s very important we get inflation under controlInflation issues are still one of the economy’s main challengesNow ended pandemic supports had buoyed lower income AmericansIn many ways U.S. has long had a K-shaped economyHigh end consumers have been spending, economy has been resilientAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintained a cautious, hawkish stance in his radio comments today, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve remains “laser focused” on returning inflation to its 2% target. He acknowledged that while the labor market is cooling, it is not yet fundamentally weak, describing the current environment as a “no hire, no fire” dynamic.Bostic noted a growing tension between the Fed’s dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment. He highlighted that inflation remains significantly above target and remains a primary economic challenge. Furthermore, he pointed to a “K-shaped” economic reality where high-end consumer spending remains resilient, while lower-income households face increased stress following the end of pandemic-era supports.Addressing supply-side concerns, Bostic mentioned that cost pressures extend beyond tariffs, citing specific labor stresses in sectors dependent on foreign workers. None of this is a surprise as Bostic already said that he “penciled in no further reductions” in rates in 2026.That’s in contrast to a market that sees 53 bps in easing this year but in the short-term the odds of a cut only rise to 50% in April, as today’s non-farm payrolls report and lower unemployment rate pushed the timeline back.On top of that, Bostic is retiring on Feb 28 and we’re waiting to hear who his replacement will be This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

Gold and silver have been volatile to start the year so far but the bulls have shown some impressive willingness to buy moderate dips. Now both are flirting with notable closes. Gold is attempting only its second-ever weekly close above $4500 after doing that on December 22 in holiday-thinned trading. Silver is attempting a weekly close above $80 for the first time ever.Both would be bullish signs.There was some profit taking after the huge moves in precious metals just after Christmas but they’ve found a footing in light of geopolitical turmoil. The US capture of Venezulan President Maduro is one factor but I would argue the even larger one is Trump continuing to openly call for the annexation of Greenland.That’s the kind of thing that would certainly cause a schism with Europe and break NATO. It would leave no doubts as to the old world order returning and spark deep uncertainty. Along with that is the Supreme Court decision on tariffs. We were hoping for some clarity today but we didn’t get a decision so we will keep waiting. Aside from the case itself, we will need to find out whether the Supreme Court is just a rubber stamp for the administration. If so, then it raises some troubling questions about the future of the US Constitutional order and whether or not Trump will try to outlast his second term.In terms of the chart, this is starting to look good for silver. It’s managing to consolidate right at/near the top of the recent range. There have been efforts to knock it down towards a deeper retracement but the bids have been waiting. If there’s some kind of bullish catalyst (a dovish Fed chair?) then maybe we see a fresh push.The gold chart is similar, though not nearly as parabolic. It’s consolidating just below $4600 but if it can break out, I would expect $5000 to act as a magnet. Note the positive seasonals for precious metals run into February. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s push towards a weekly close above $4500 is significant for traders: it signals strong bullish sentiment. The fact that this is only the second time gold has approached this level indicates a potential breakout or a false signal, depending on how the market reacts. If gold can maintain this level, it could attract more institutional buying, which often follows psychological price points. Watch for volatility in silver as well, as it often moves in tandem with gold. A sustained close above $4500 could lead to a test of higher resistance levels, while a failure to hold could trigger profit-taking and a pullback. Keep an eye on the broader economic indicators, particularly inflation data and interest rate decisions, as they could influence gold’s trajectory. If the dollar weakens, that could further bolster gold prices. For now, traders should monitor the $4500 level closely—it’s a crucial pivot point for both gold and silver. 📮 Takeaway Watch for gold’s weekly close above $4500; a sustained hold could lead to further gains, while a failure may trigger a pullback.

Headlines from Barkin:Federal Reserve changes must be finely tuned to incoming dataBoth sides of central bank mandate face significant risksUnemployment remains at historic lows but has recently ticked upInflation has decreased but still remains above 2% targetInterest rates are now within range of neutral estimatesNo one wants labor market to experience further deteriorationUS economy has shown remarkable resilience despite major disruptionsJob growth and demand are currently narrow, driven by health care and aiHigh-income consumers are sustaining demand as sentiment dips elsewhereUncertainty from 2025 is expected to diminish as the “fog lifts”Tax refunds and deregulation will likely add stimulus to economyLower mortgage rates will not resolve fundamental housing supply shortagesBarkin is likely on the sidelines as earlier this month he said rates were “within the range of estimates of neutral”. He is characterizing the current economic phase as a “delicate balance” where risks to employment and inflation are now roughly equal. While he acknowledges the economy’s resilience, he warns that growth is currently “narrow,” heavily reliant on the AI ecosystem and wealthy consumers.He is particularly focused on layoff data to see if the current “low-hiring, low-firing” environment shifts toward a more significant downturn. Looking ahead, he anticipates that fiscal stimulus from recent tax changes and a reduction in policy uncertainty should support hiring and investment throughout 2026.In late 2025 (especially during the government data shutdown in October/November), Barkin described the Fed as “driving through fog” and “feeling its way through” a data-poor environment. His 2026 outlook is more optimistic; he expects the “fog to lift” and uncertainty to diminish.Barkin isn’t a voter this year but he’s a good barometer for the core of the FOMC. The dollar was unmoved on the comments and the market is now pricing April as 50/50 for a rate cut. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Barkin’s comments on the Fed’s need for precision are crucial right now as traders assess interest rate trajectories. With unemployment ticking up and inflation still above the 2% target, the Fed’s balancing act is more precarious than ever. If rates are adjusted too aggressively, it could stifle growth and further impact employment, which is already showing signs of strain. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases, especially job reports and inflation metrics, as these will likely dictate the Fed’s next moves. The current interest rate environment, sitting near neutral estimates, suggests that any shifts could have immediate ripple effects across equities and fixed income markets. If the Fed signals a more dovish stance, we might see a rally in risk assets, while hawkish signals could lead to a sell-off. Watch the 10-year Treasury yield closely; a move above recent highs could indicate rising expectations for rate hikes, impacting everything from stocks to commodities. 📮 Takeaway Monitor upcoming job and inflation data closely; they could dictate the Fed’s next moves and impact market volatility significantly.

The White House is out with damage control after Trump leaked the jobs numbers late yesterday on Truth Social.”Following the regular procedure of presidents being prebriefed on economic data releases, there was an inadvertent public disclosure of aggregate data that was partially derived from pre-released information. The White House is accordingly reviewing protocols regarding economic data releases. ”The statement continued with some kind of rant about the media.If you missed it: How Trump leaked the non-farm payrolls reportThe jobs report itself has led to a diminished pricing for a rate cut in March. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight So Trump’s leak of jobs numbers is causing a stir, and here’s why it matters: market sentiment can shift quickly based on perceived economic health. The inadvertent disclosure could lead to volatility in both the forex and crypto markets as traders react to the implications of these numbers. If the jobs data suggests stronger-than-expected employment growth, we might see a bullish trend in the dollar, which could negatively impact crypto prices as investors flock to traditional assets. Conversely, if the data is weak, it could trigger a flight to safety, benefiting gold and potentially pushing crypto prices higher as investors seek alternative stores of value. Look for immediate reactions in the forex market, particularly with USD pairs, as traders digest this news. Key levels to watch are the recent highs and lows in the dollar index, which could signal a breakout or reversal. Also, keep an eye on related assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum; if the dollar strengthens, they may face downward pressure. The real story is how traders interpret these numbers in the context of ongoing economic uncertainty, so stay alert for shifts in sentiment and adjust your positions accordingly. 📮 Takeaway Watch for immediate reactions in USD pairs and related assets; key levels in the dollar index will signal potential market direction.

Friday was about the jobs report but the week ahead will see the market tilt towards earnings.. The S&P 500 is flirting with 7,000, yields are looking for direction, and the solid economy in 2026 narrative is crowded.The bank numbers and commentary will serve as a high-stakes health check on the US consumer—specifically if loan losses are finally starting to bite. If the consumer is cracking under the weight of higher rates, Jamie Dimon’s commentary will be the first place we see it.Beyond the banks, we’re looking for a signal that the freight recession has found a floor and if chip demand has any red flags.Here is what to watch:Banks:It’s big bank earnings week with: JPM, Wells Fargo, Citi, BofATuesday (JPM) & Wednesday (WFC, C, BAC)On the macro view, it’s about credit quality. I’m looking for signs that consumers are falling behind on payments.EPS Consensus (JPM): ~$5.01 (Whispers are higher, closer to $5.10)Watch credit card delinquencies.We know the affluent consumer is fine (wealth effect from stocks/housing). We need to know how badly the lower end consumer is hurting. Watch for loan loss provisions and commentary about spending. For the market more broadly, there could also be some talk about M&A, which would also be a positive economic and market signal.JPM CEO Jamie Dimon is typically candid but he’s been hit-or-miss on macro signals so take his views with that in mind.Airlines:At the top end of the K-shaped economy, watch for Delta Airlines earnings on Tuesday morning. The consensus is $1.63. Travel is a good barometer of economic confidence but what we’re likely seeing in airlines is high end consumer traveling more, including in premium seats and middle income consumers getting squeezed. That’s been working ok for airlines and I think they’re a good investment but if those economy seats don’t fill, that could change.Another signal worth watching is commentary on business travel, which has slowly been coming back post-covid but still isn’t all the way there.Chipmakers:TSMC on Thursday morning is arguably the big one for the week. They make Nvidia’s chips and have great visibility into the order book. With valuations very high, any sign of weakness whatsoever could spread broadly in tech.TSMC is the bellwether. If they guide for continued acceleration in “High Performance Computing” (HPC), the AI bull run gets a green light for 2026. Any hesitation here will drag down the entire Nasdaq (NVDA, AMD).Freight:J.B. Hunt (JBHT) reports Thursday after the close. Manufacturing and freight have been in a brutal recession and signs of a bottom are hard to find but some freight names bounced from the lows in Q4, so there is optimism headed into the new year. Is it misplaced? JBHT could tell us. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight With SOL at $136.64, traders need to watch how earnings reports will impact market sentiment next week. The S&P 500 nearing 7,000 indicates bullish sentiment, but earnings could shift that narrative quickly. If bank earnings disappoint, we might see a risk-off approach, which could drag SOL and other altcoins down. Conversely, strong earnings could fuel further bullish momentum. Keep an eye on yield movements as well; if they rise, it could signal a shift in investor appetite away from risk assets like crypto. Also, watch for any commentary from banks that could hint at future economic conditions—this could be a game changer for SOL and the broader market. Here’s the thing: while the economy looks solid for 2026, short-term volatility is likely. Traders should monitor SOL’s support levels around $130 and resistance at $140. A break below $130 could trigger selling pressure, while a push above $140 might attract more buyers. Earnings season is a critical watchpoint; it could dictate the next moves in crypto and equities alike. 📮 Takeaway Watch SOL closely; a break below $130 could signal bearish momentum, while a push above $140 may attract buyers amid earnings volatility.

US December non-farm payrolls +50K vs +60K expectedCanada employment change 8.2K versus -5.0 K estimateJapan’s Takaichi weighs calling a snap election for mid-FebruaryUS October housing starts 1.246m vs 1.325m expectedFed’s Barkin: Today’s drop in the unemployment rate is welcomeFed’s Bostic says inflation is ‘a lot’ above the 2% targetNo opinion today on tariffs from the US Supreme CourtHow Trump leaked the non-farm payrolls reportWhite House says Trump jobs report leak was “inadvertent public disclosure”US UMich January prelim consumer sentiment 54.0 vs 53.5 expectedThe US earnings calendar heats up next week with banks and airlinesMarkets:Gold up $28 to $4503Silver up 3.8%WTI crude up $1.20 to $58.97US 10-year yields flat at 4.17%S&P 500 up 0.8% to fresh recordUSD leads, JPY lagsIt was a lively news day but not as much as it could have been. The Supreme Court released a decision on Friday as expected but it wasn’t about tariffs, so we will continue to wait for that. The next possible date is Wednesday, which has also been scheduled as a ‘decision day’.In terms of what happened, the non-farm payrolls report led to volatile trading. The dollar rose on the kneejerk, then fell around 25 pips due to the softer headline and revisions, then started a long climb as the market focused on the lower unemployment rate. That view was validated by Barkin, who said he welcomed falling unemployment.Overall, the US dollar moves weren’t big.The loonie didn’t get any help from a strong jobs report as USD/CAD rose for the six straight day to start the year. That pair is now at a five week high, even as oil prices rise. Part of the reason is compressing Canadian heavy oil spreads after the US-Venezuela coup. The big loser on the day was the yen and most of that came before the election reports but I think that’s a critical spot to watch. If Takaichi launches a campaign and promises even more spending, that could turbocharge worries about Japanese indebtedness and further boost long-term borrowing costs. She’s polling well so it shouldn’t be a surprise if she decides to pull the trigger.A bid for precious metals came midway through US trading and I wonder if the market is sensing weekend risk after the drama in Venezuela. It seems as though Cuba is on the clock and maybe Greenland too. Further, keep an eye on Iran this weekend as protests there likely lifted gold and oil prices in Friday.Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The latest US jobs report missed expectations, and here’s why that matters for traders: With non-farm payrolls coming in at +50K versus the +60K anticipated, it signals potential weakness in the labor market that could influence Fed policy. Traders should keep an eye on how this affects interest rate expectations, especially with inflation still above the 2% target. If the Fed perceives a need to adjust its stance, we could see volatility across assets, including ADA, which is currently at $0.39. A weaker jobs report might lead to a more dovish Fed, impacting risk assets positively in the short term. However, if inflation remains stubborn, the Fed may stick to its tightening path, which could weigh on crypto and equities alike. On the flip side, Canada’s employment change of 8.2K against a -5.0K estimate shows some strength in the labor market, which could create a divergence in sentiment between the US and Canadian markets. Traders should watch for ADA’s reaction to these macroeconomic indicators, particularly if it approaches key support levels around $0.35. Monitoring the Fed’s next moves and inflation data will be crucial in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch ADA closely around $0.35 for support; the Fed’s response to inflation and jobs data could drive volatility.