Prior +0.1%PPI -1.7% vs -1.9% y/y expectedPrior -0.5%It’s a beat on estimates but this is very much a lagging data point at best. The consumer price index (CPI) precedes this and outweighs this on inflation trends, so just take this as a supportive or secondary data. If excluding energy, producer prices were only up 0.1% on the month in November last year.The breakdown shows that prices for:Intermediate goods +0.3%Energy +1.8%Capital goods +0.1%Durable consumer goods +0.3%Non-durable consumer goods -0.2%And when compared to the same month a year ago, producer prices were seen down 1.7%. However, much of that owes to a steep decline in energy prices (-7.4%). All other categories show an increase compared to the corresponding month one year ago, with total producer prices actually up 1.0% once you strip out energy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The latest PPI data beat expectations, but here’s why it shouldn’t sway your trading strategy right now. While a +0.1% increase in PPI against a -1.7% prior reading might seem positive, it’s crucial to remember that this is lagging data. Traders should focus more on the CPI, which is a leading indicator for inflation trends. The market’s reaction to PPI could be muted, especially since inflation expectations are already being shaped by CPI readings. If you’re in the forex or crypto markets, this PPI data might not drive significant moves. Instead, keep an eye on the upcoming CPI release for more actionable insights. Watch for any shifts in sentiment that could ripple through correlated assets, particularly if CPI shows unexpected inflationary pressures. In terms of strategy, consider monitoring key levels around recent highs and lows in both PPI and CPI. If CPI comes in higher than expected, it could trigger volatility across markets, especially in interest-sensitive assets. So, while today’s PPI data is a beat, it’s the CPI that will likely dictate the next moves in the market. 📮 Takeaway Focus on the upcoming CPI data for actionable insights, as it will likely have a greater impact on market sentiment than the recent PPI figures.

KEY POINTS:US dollar remains supported despite mixed US dataTraders turn their focus to the US NFP report for the next directionSwiss CPI matches estimates, SNB seen on hold for a long timeUSD/CHF rises into a key resistance near the 0.80 handleFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been bouncing around in the past few days as traders continue to wait for the US NFP report. The US data this week has been mixed. We got a soft ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday but a strong Services PMI yesterday. The ADP was good despite a slight miss, but Job Openings were soft. In terms of macro, nothing has changed. The market is still pricing 62 bps of easing by year-end with 57% probability of a Fed cut coming in March at the earliest. We will need very soft NFP and CPI data to force the Fed to cut at the upcoming meeting, otherwise traders will just adjust the timing of the expected cuts in 2026 and might even increase bets in the case of weak data.Tomorrow, the US Supreme Court scheduled an “opinion day”, so we might also potentially get a decision on Trump’s tariffs. CHF:On the CHF side, nothing has changed. The SNB left everything unchanged at the last meeting and sounded a bit more positive on the future outlook given the lower US tariff rate. SNB’s members continue to repeat that the bar for negative rates remains high, so that leaves the Swiss Franc trading mostly based on risk sentiment. The Swiss CPI today matched expectations with the Core reading holding steady around 0.5%. Unless we get a strong negative shock in the economy or outright deflation, the SNB is unlikely to do anything for a long time.USDCHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF bounced from the bottom of the range around the 0.7970 level and it’s now approaching the 0.80 handle. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.USDCHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an important zone around the 0.7980 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past several months. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the zone to position for a drop into the bottom of the range. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the top of the range around the 0.81 handle.USDCHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been trading inside a rising channel into the key resistance. The RSI has been diverging with the latest push into the resistance indicating a loss of momentum. This might be a signal for a bigger pullback into the trendline around the 0.7930 level. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the bottom of the channel to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US dollar’s resilience amidst mixed data is a critical signal for traders right now. With the upcoming NFP report looming, market participants are on edge, weighing the potential for a shift in monetary policy. The dollar’s strength, particularly against the Swiss franc, which is nearing the 0.80 resistance level, suggests that traders are positioning themselves ahead of this key economic indicator. If the NFP report surprises to the upside, we could see the dollar rally further, potentially breaking through that resistance. Conversely, a weak report could trigger a sell-off, especially in USD/CHF, which has shown sensitivity to US economic data. Keep an eye on the 0.80 level; a decisive break could lead to a significant move. On the flip side, while the dollar is currently supported, the mixed data could lead to volatility. Traders should be cautious of false breakouts and prepare for potential whipsaws around the NFP release. Monitoring the market’s reaction to the report will be crucial, as it could dictate the dollar’s trajectory for the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch the USD/CHF at the 0.80 resistance; a break could signal a strong dollar rally post-NFP report.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5790 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day, supported by a mix of macroeconomic factors despite a mixed flow of news from the United States (US). 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight NZD/USD is holding steady around 0.5790, and here’s why that matters right now: Despite a mixed bag of news from the US, the NZD is finding support from macroeconomic factors, which could signal a shift in trader sentiment. With the pair up 0.10% today, it’s crucial to watch how the US economic indicators play out, especially ahead of any Federal Reserve announcements. If the US dollar weakens further due to disappointing data, we might see NZD/USD push higher, potentially testing resistance levels around 0.5800. Conversely, if US data surprises to the upside, it could lead to a quick reversal, so traders should be ready for volatility. Keep an eye on the daily chart for any breakout patterns. A sustained move above 0.5800 could attract more buyers, while a drop below 0.5770 might trigger selling pressure. The real story is how the market reacts to US economic releases in the coming days, which could have ripple effects not just on the NZD but also on correlated pairs like AUD/USD. 📮 Takeaway Watch for NZD/USD to break above 0.5800 for potential bullish momentum, but be cautious of US economic data that could shift sentiment quickly.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges lower near 1.3490 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight GBP’s dip near 1.3490 against USD signals potential volatility ahead. With the Pound edging lower, traders should consider the implications of upcoming economic data releases and central bank decisions. If GBP breaks below 1.3470, it could trigger further selling pressure, potentially leading to a test of support around 1.3400. This level has historically been a battleground for buyers and sellers, making it crucial for short-term traders to monitor. On the flip side, if GBP manages to reclaim 1.3550, it could indicate a bullish reversal, prompting a shift in sentiment. Keep an eye on correlated assets like EUR/USD, as movements in the Euro may influence GBP’s trajectory. Additionally, watch for any comments from the Bank of England regarding interest rates, as these could add fuel to the fire, impacting both GBP and USD dynamics in the coming sessions. 📮 Takeaway Watch for GBP to hold above 1.3470 or risk a drop toward 1.3400; key economic data could drive volatility.

United States ISM Services New Orders Index increased to 57.9 in December from previous 52.9 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The ISM Services New Orders Index jumping to 57.9 is a big deal for traders right now. This uptick signals stronger demand in the services sector, which could lead to increased economic activity and, potentially, inflationary pressures. Traders should keep an eye on how this impacts the broader market, especially in sectors like consumer discretionary and financials. If the trend continues, we might see the Fed adjusting its monetary policy sooner than expected, which could affect interest rates and the USD. Watch for any reactions in the forex market, particularly with USD pairs, as a stronger dollar could shift trading strategies. Additionally, this could ripple through commodities, especially if demand forecasts improve. On the flip side, if this increase is seen as temporary or driven by seasonal factors, it could lead to a quick correction. So, keep an eye on upcoming economic reports and market sentiment to gauge whether this is a sustainable trend or just a blip. Watch the 58 level as a potential resistance point in the services index moving forward. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 58 level in the ISM Services Index; a sustained rise could signal shifts in Fed policy and impact USD pairs significantly.

United States ISM Services Prices Paid fell from previous 65.4 to 64.3 in December 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The drop in ISM Services Prices Paid from 65.4 to 64.3 is significant for traders right now. This decline suggests easing inflationary pressures in the services sector, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. If the Fed perceives that inflation is cooling, it might slow down interest rate hikes, impacting the USD and potentially boosting risk assets like equities and crypto. Traders should keep an eye on how this data interacts with upcoming Fed meetings and economic forecasts. A sustained trend below 65 could signal a broader shift in market sentiment, prompting a reevaluation of long positions in USD and related assets. On the flip side, if the market misinterprets this as a sign of economic weakness, we could see a flight to safety, pushing investors back into the dollar and away from riskier assets. Watch for reactions in the forex market, especially with pairs like EUR/USD, as they could reflect broader sentiment shifts. Key levels to monitor are the 1.05 support for EUR/USD and any resistance around 1.10 as traders adjust their strategies based on Fed signals. 📮 Takeaway Watch for USD reactions around the 1.05 support level against EUR/USD as traders digest the ISM Services Prices data.

United States ISM Services PMI above expectations (52.3) in December: Actual (54.4) 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight ISM Services PMI beating expectations is a big deal for traders right now. With the actual reading at 54.4, significantly above the forecast of 52.3, it signals stronger-than-anticipated growth in the services sector. This could lead to increased consumer spending and potentially higher inflation, which the Fed will be watching closely. For traders, this means monitoring interest rate expectations, as a robust services sector might push the Fed to maintain or even accelerate rate hikes. Look for movements in the USD and related assets, as a stronger dollar could impact commodities and equities. Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield, which may react to these figures, especially if it breaks above recent resistance levels. On the flip side, while the PMI is positive, it’s worth questioning whether this growth is sustainable. If inflation continues to rise, it could lead to a slowdown in consumer spending down the line. So, while the immediate reaction may favor bullish positions, be cautious of potential volatility in the coming weeks as the market digests this data. 📮 Takeaway Watch for USD strength and 10-year Treasury yields as they react to the ISM Services PMI reading; key resistance levels could shift market dynamics.

United States ISM Services Employment Index increased to 52 in December from previous 48.9 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The ISM Services Employment Index jumping to 52 is a bullish signal for the economy, and here’s why that matters right now: An increase from 48.9 to 52 indicates a shift towards expansion in the services sector, which is crucial since it represents a significant portion of the U.S. economy. This uptick could lead to increased consumer spending, which is vital for economic growth. For traders, this data point could influence positions in sectors like consumer discretionary and financials, as improved employment prospects typically boost market sentiment. Keep an eye on related assets like the S&P 500, which often reacts positively to strong employment data. However, there’s a flip side: while this is good news, it could also prompt the Fed to maintain or even accelerate interest rate hikes to combat inflation. Traders should monitor the upcoming Fed meetings closely, as any hawkish signals could lead to volatility in equities and bonds. Watch the 4,000 level on the S&P 500; a break above could signal further bullish momentum, while a failure to hold could indicate a pullback. 📮 Takeaway Watch the S&P 500 around the 4,000 level; a break above could signal bullish momentum, but be wary of Fed reactions to this employment data.

United States Factory Orders (MoM) below expectations (-1.2%) in October: Actual (-1.3%) 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Factory orders just missed expectations, and here’s why that matters: a drop of 1.3% in October signals potential weakness in the manufacturing sector. This could lead to a slowdown in economic growth, which traders need to factor into their strategies. When factory orders decline, it often foreshadows reduced production and, consequently, lower demand for raw materials and labor. This could ripple through related markets, particularly commodities and industrial stocks. Watch for how this data influences the broader economic sentiment, especially as we approach upcoming Fed meetings. If the trend continues, we might see a shift in monetary policy expectations, which could impact forex pairs tied to the USD. Traders should keep an eye on key technical levels in the S&P 500 and industrial sector ETFs. If these indices break below recent support levels, it could trigger further selling pressure. The immediate focus should be on how this data influences market sentiment and whether it leads to a reassessment of growth forecasts in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the S&P 500 and industrial ETFs for potential breakdowns below support levels, as the 1.3% drop in factory orders could signal broader economic weakness.