Germany December construction PMI 50.3Prior 45.2That’s some positive news at least for the German economy, with the jump higher here driven by a further increase in civil engineering activity. Of note, activity in this segment registered its strongest rate of expansion since March 2011. Besides that, the drag on total activity from the housing sector eased considerably as work on residential projects fell at the slowest rate since March 2022. And adding to that, employment conditions also ticked up for a second month in a row.All that being said, this is just one reading. Firms’ expectations towards activity in the year ahead remained subdued and that will keep any optimism towards the outlook more limited for now.HCOB notes that:“The construction sector experienced a surprisingly positive end to last year. For the first time since March 2022, the total activity index has moved into expansion territory. This is partly thanks to a sharp boost in civil engineering. But it also seems that sentiment in the previously battered residential construction sector is starting to turn. We may be seeing signs that the housing sector is emerging from a deep recession, with activity now only edging down slightly. To keep things in perspective, this is just one monthly figure, and the time series has shown big swings before. Still, the sharp rise in building permits recently reported by the Federal Statistical Office gives hope that this isn’t just a one-off. “The strong acceleration in civil engineering activity suggests that the infrastructure measures announced by the federal government are finally moving into the implementation phase. This applies especially to transport infrastructure – roads, bridges, and rail. Growth hiccups are still possible in civil engineering in 2026, but as the year progresses, the growth path should stabilize as more projects get underway. This trend will likely mean that resources from less busy construction segments will increasingly be deployed in civil engineering. Notably, employment in the construction sector has been rising again for two months, after the last expansion nearly four years ago.”Building continues to get more expensive. Construction costs rose a bit more sharply in December than in the previous month. Combined with relatively high long-term interest rates, which is a key factor, especially for residential construction, this acts as a dampener. And given the ECB’s communication, short-term rates aren’t expected to fall anytime soon, which doesn’t help either.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Germany’s construction PMI rising to 50.3 is a glimmer of hope in a shaky economy. This uptick, driven by a surge in civil engineering, signals potential resilience in the sector. For traders, this could mean a short-term bullish sentiment in related assets, particularly in the eurozone. If civil engineering continues to expand, it might bolster the euro against the dollar, especially if the PMI trend persists. Keep an eye on the 50.0 mark; staying above it could indicate ongoing growth. However, don’t overlook the broader economic context—Germany’s economy still faces challenges, and this data point alone won’t change the narrative overnight. Watch for reactions in the DAX and related construction stocks, as they could reflect market sentiment shifts. The real story is whether this PMI can lead to sustained growth or if it’s just a blip in a larger downturn. Traders should monitor upcoming economic indicators closely for confirmation of this trend. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the euro’s reaction against the dollar as construction PMI holds above 50; sustained growth could signal bullish momentum.

KEY POINTS:Silver remains supported amid geopolitical tensions, weak US data and dovish Fed expectationsRisks in the short-term include the US NFP report on Friday and potential US Supreme Court decision on tariffsBig picture uptrend should remain intact amid the Fed’s dovish reaction functionPrice chart shows a possible double top in the makingFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSilver has been the hottest asset of 2025. The fundamentals are the same as for gold, but silver is more volatile. The precious metal continues to be supported by the geopolitical tensions, the weak US data and the dovish Fed expectations. The bullish momentum remains intact, but we have two important events on Friday that could challenge that.In fact, on Friday we get the latest US NFP report and while the previous report might have been taken with a pinch of salt due to shutdown related issues, this one should give us a clearer picture. Strong data might lead to a bigger pullback as traders push back on expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut, while soft figures should keep on supporting the upside.Moreover, yesterday the US Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an opinion day, which could see a decision on Trump’s tariffs. In case the tariffs are struck down, silver will likely fall amid easing stagflation risks. On the other hand, if tariffs are kept in place, it shouldn’t change much although it would keep the upside intact. In the bigger picture, silver should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function. But in the short term, a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations could weigh on the market.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver recovered all the losses from last week’s selloff and touched the all-time highs. Is this going to be a double top or will we see new record highs ahead? The sellers will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk above the all-time high to position for a drop into the 69.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 69.00 handle.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the upward trendline that was defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. This could be a signal of a loss of momentum and a bigger pullback in the cards. The sellers piled in on the break targeting a drop into the major trendline. The buyers have a mixed picture here and will need to wait for a pullback into the major trendline or a break above the all-time high.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ADP, the US ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Silver’s resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions and weak US data is noteworthy right now. With the Fed leaning dovish, traders should keep an eye on the upcoming NFP report, which could shake things up. If the report disappoints, we might see silver maintain its upward trajectory, especially if it confirms the double top pattern on the chart. However, a strong jobs report could trigger a sell-off, so be prepared for volatility. The Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs could also add another layer of uncertainty, affecting both silver and broader market sentiment. In the grand scheme, the dovish Fed stance suggests that silver could remain a safe haven, but traders need to watch key levels closely. If silver breaks above recent highs, it could signal a strong bullish trend, while a drop below support levels might indicate a reversal. Keep your charts handy and monitor these developments closely. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the NFP report on Friday; a weak result could support silver’s uptrend, while a strong report might trigger a sell-off.

Prior 39.4The decline in UK construction activity was less pronounced in December but it’s still a terrible end to the year for the sector. There were sharp falls once again in housing, commercial and civil engineering activity as incoming new work remains subdued. Civil engineering (32.9) was the weakest-performing category of construction activity in December, and that is despite recording a softer rate of contraction than in November. Meanwhile, both housing activity (33.5) and commercial construction (42.0) decreased to the greatest extent since May 2020. Ouch.The only positive footnote is that business activity expectations rebounded to five-month high. But that’s about it.S&P Global notes that:”UK construction companies once again reported challenging business conditions and falling workloads in December, but the speed of the downturn moderated from the five-and-a-half-year record seen in November. Many firms cited subdued demand and fragile client confidence. Despite a lifting of Budget-related uncertainty, delayed spending decisions were still cited as contributing to weak sales pipelines at the close of the year. “By sector, latest data indicated the fastest reductions in housing and commercial construction since May 2020, while civil engineering was the only segment to signal a slower pace of decline than in the previous month. “Total new orders nonetheless decreased to a much lesser degree than in November, while business activity expectations for the year ahead rebounded to a fivemonth high. Some survey respondents attributed greater optimism to projections of rising infrastructure spending, especially in the utilities sector. There were also hopes that lower borrowing costs and easing inflationary pressures could boost demand across the construction sector. “Supplier performance meanwhile improved for the fifth month running, largely due to lower input buying. This also contributed to a slowdown in purchasing price inflation to its weakest since October 2024.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight UK construction activity is still struggling, and here’s why that matters for traders: The latest figures show a slight decline in construction activity, with civil engineering hitting a low of 32.9. This signals ongoing weakness in the sector, which could have broader implications for related markets, especially in real estate and commodities. A lack of new work suggests that demand is weak, which could lead to further declines in construction stocks and impact related sectors like materials and labor. Traders should keep an eye on how this trend develops, particularly as it could influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions moving forward. If construction continues to lag, it could signal a broader economic slowdown, prompting shifts in forex pairs tied to the GBP. On the flip side, this could present a buying opportunity for contrarian traders looking at undervalued construction stocks or ETFs. Watch for any rebound in new orders or government infrastructure spending announcements, as these could provide a catalyst for recovery. Key levels to monitor include the performance of construction-related stocks and any shifts in economic indicators that might suggest a turnaround in the sector. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on UK construction activity; a sustained decline could impact GBP pairs and related stocks, especially if new orders don’t improve.

Prior +2.1%Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y expectedPrior +2.4%Headline annual inflation eased slightly to hit the 2% mark with core annual inflation also easing marginally. Still, it’s no time to celebrate just yet and the ECB knows that very well. Services inflation remains the key sticking point, coming in at 3.4% in December. That is slightly better than in November (3.5%) but remains well above what it was from the middle of last year (around 3.2%). On the month itself, services inflation moved up by 0.7%.All of this continues to point towards the narrative that the ECB won’t feel the rush nor the pressure to act any time soon. That especially since the German economy is still flagging in the meantime while waiting for the fiscal kick with inflation pressures still largely persisting in the region’s largest economy.So, carry on as you will as the ECB will be staying on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.EUR/USD holds little changed on the day at 1.1686 with not much appetite among major currencies today. The dollar is pretty much trading flattish across the board as we await the US ADP employment change and ISM services PMI later in the day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Inflation data just dropped, and here’s why it matters: core CPI eased to 2.3%, slightly below expectations of 2.4%. This slight dip in core inflation could influence the ECB’s next moves, especially with services inflation still a concern. Traders should keep an eye on how this data affects the euro and related assets. If the ECB decides to maintain or adjust its monetary policy based on these figures, we could see volatility in forex pairs like EUR/USD. Watch for key levels around 1.05 and 1.07 in the euro, as these could signal shifts in sentiment. But don’t get too complacent; while the headline inflation is at 2%, the underlying pressures from services could keep the ECB on edge. If inflation doesn’t stabilize, we might see a more hawkish stance from the central bank, impacting market dynamics significantly. Keep an eye on upcoming ECB meetings for any hints on policy direction. 📮 Takeaway Watch the euro around 1.05 and 1.07 as inflation data could lead to significant volatility in the forex market.

KEY POINTS:Suspected RBI intervention boosted the Indian RupeeIndia’s central bank actions not enough to stop the INR depreciationRenewed tensions on the tariffs front remain a negative for the RupeeUS dollar bounces around as traders await the US NFP report on FridayFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been bouncing around in the past couple of days as traders continue to wait for the US NFP report on Friday. We got a soft US ISM Manufacturing PMI recently that weighed on the greenback but the losses were erased in the following days. In terms of macro, nothing has changed in these two weeks. The latest NFP and CPI reports came both on the softer side and the market is still pricing 62 bps of easing by year-end. The data in December was taken with a pinch of salt given the shutdown related issues, but the next releases will give us a clearer picture. The market expects the Fed to cut in March at the earliest, so we will need very soft data this month to force them to act sooner. Nonetheless, if the data continues to come in on the softer side, the market will likely increase the total easing for 2026 and that should continue to weigh on the US dollar.On the other hand, if the data strengthens, traders will likely pare back their rate cut bets and that will likely offer the greenback some support.INR:The Indian Rupee jumped today following a suspected RBI intervention. The Indian central bank has been intervening more frequently recently but the bearish pressure on the Rupee is expected to remain due to structural headwinds. On Monday, Trump threatened more tariffs on India “if they don’t help on Russian oil issue”, so the tensions on the trade front continue to be a negative for the currency. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the price couldn’t extend the rally into the key 90.40 level as RBI’s intervention pushed the pair lower. Nevertheless, the upside should remain intact, and the buyers will likely step back in around the 89.70 area where we can find a strong support and the lower bound of the rising channel. The sellers, on the other hand, will need the price to break out of the channel to extend the drop into the 88.90 level next.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the strong push lower today following the suspected RBI intervention. Again, the buyers will likely step in around the 89.70 support zone with a defined risk below the lower bound of the channel to position for a rally into the 92.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 88.90 level next.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for dip-buying opportunities around the 89.70 level and the bottom of the channel, while the sellers will wait for a breakout to pile in for new lows.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ADP, the US ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The RBI’s intervention might’ve given the Indian Rupee a temporary boost, but the underlying issues remain. Traders should note that despite the central bank’s efforts, the INR continues to face downward pressure, particularly with ongoing tariff tensions that could exacerbate its depreciation. As the US dollar fluctuates ahead of the NFP report, the INR’s performance will likely hinge on both domestic and global sentiment. Watch for key levels in USD/INR; a breach above recent highs could signal further weakness for the Rupee. Here’s the kicker: if the NFP report shows stronger-than-expected job growth, we could see the dollar strengthen further, putting additional pressure on the INR. Keep an eye on how institutional players react to these developments, as their moves could set the tone for the next few trading sessions. 📮 Takeaway Monitor USD/INR closely; a break above recent highs could signal further weakness for the Rupee, especially with the NFP report looming.

The British Pound (GBP) edges lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday, with GBP/JPY paring part of the previous day’s gains amid quieter market conditions. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight GBP/JPY’s dip today signals potential volatility ahead as traders reassess positions. The recent pullback comes after a brief rally, suggesting that market sentiment may be shifting. Quieter conditions often precede significant moves, and with economic indicators from both the UK and Japan on the horizon, traders should be cautious. If GBP/JPY breaks below recent support levels, it could trigger further selling pressure. Keep an eye on the 150.00 level; a sustained move below could indicate a bearish trend. Conversely, if it holds, we might see a rebound, especially if UK data surprises positively. Here’s the thing: while many are focused on the immediate price action, the broader context of interest rate differentials between the BoE and BoJ could create longer-term opportunities. If the BoE signals a more hawkish stance, that could support the Pound against the Yen, despite today’s pullback. Watch for any comments from central bank officials that could shift sentiment quickly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 150.00 support level on GBP/JPY; a break could lead to increased selling pressure, while a hold might signal a rebound opportunity.

European Gas prices have slipped back below EUR 28/MWh as markets look past the current cold spell toward milder weather, despite storage levels remaining well below average. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight European gas prices dropping below EUR 28/MWh signals a shift in market sentiment, and here’s why that matters: Traders are reacting to forecasts of milder weather, which could ease demand concerns despite current storage levels being below average. This shift suggests that the market is prioritizing short-term weather patterns over longer-term supply issues. For day traders, this could mean a potential short-term buying opportunity if prices stabilize or rebound, especially if forecasts change again. Watch for any sudden shifts in weather predictions or geopolitical tensions that could impact supply, as these could lead to volatility. On the flip side, if prices remain low, it could indicate a longer-term bearish trend, especially if storage levels don’t improve. Keep an eye on the EUR 28/MWh level; a sustained break below could trigger further selling pressure. Also, monitor related markets like LNG prices, as they often correlate with European gas trends. The next few weeks will be crucial for gauging whether this price drop is a temporary blip or a sign of deeper market shifts. 📮 Takeaway Watch the EUR 28/MWh level closely; a sustained break could signal further downside, while any weather shifts might create short-term trading opportunities.

Precious metal prices experienced spectacular rises in the final days of the year, followed in some cases by sharp setbacks. On Boxing Day, the price of Gold reached a new record high of $4,550 per troy ounce, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s record high of $4,550 per troy ounce is a pivotal moment for traders. This surge, especially around year-end, often signals a flight to safety amid economic uncertainty. Traders should consider the implications of this volatility, as sharp pullbacks can follow such peaks. The recent price action could attract both retail and institutional investors looking for safe havens, particularly if inflation fears resurface or geopolitical tensions escalate. Watch for key support levels around $4,200, as a breach could trigger further selling pressure. Conversely, if gold holds above this level, it could pave the way for a sustained bullish trend into the new year. Additionally, keep an eye on correlated assets like silver and platinum, which often move in tandem with gold. Their performance could provide insights into broader market sentiment and risk appetite. Here’s the thing: while the excitement around gold is palpable, the potential for a correction is equally significant. Traders should be ready to adjust their strategies based on how the market reacts in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Monitor gold’s support at $4,200; a break could signal further downside, while holding above may lead to bullish momentum.