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Figure Heloc 📰 DMK AI Summary Crypto investors in 48 countries will have their transaction data collected for tax purposes in preparation for the implementation of the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) in 2027. As of January 1, service providers in participating jurisdictions must begin gathering the necessary data to promote tax transparency and combat financial crimes. 💬 DMK Insight The rollout of CARF signifies a global shift towards greater transparency in the crypto market to tackle tax evasion and money laundering. With 48 jurisdictions initiating data collection this year and more to follow, this move aims to ensure compliance with tax obligations, regardless of where crypto transactions occur. The initiative, championed by G20 Finance Ministers and finalized by the OECD, could have implications beyond taxation, offering authorities enhanced insights into crypto ownership and aiding in the detection of criminal activities. 📊 Market Content The implementation of CARF and the collection of crypto tax data align with growing efforts worldwide to regulate the crypto industry more effectively. This development not only enhances tax compliance but also contributes to improving the credibility and legitimacy of cryptocurrencies in the broader financial landscape. Investors and traders should stay informed about these regulatory changes to navigate the evolving crypto market successfully.
Bitcoin and Ether ETFs pull in $646M on first trading day of 2026
On the first trading day of 2026, US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their largest net inflow day in 35 trading days. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Bitcoin ETFs just saw their biggest inflow in over a month, and here’s why that matters: This surge in inflows could signal renewed institutional interest in Bitcoin, especially as we kick off 2026. Traders should pay attention to how this influx impacts Bitcoin’s price action in the coming days. If this momentum continues, we might see a test of key resistance levels that could open the door for a bullish trend. Keep an eye on the $30,000 mark; a sustained break above could attract more buying pressure. Conversely, if inflows don’t translate into price gains, it could indicate a lack of conviction among buyers, leading to potential volatility. But let’s not ignore the flip side—this could also be a classic case of ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’ If traders start taking profits too soon, we might see a pullback that tests support levels. Watch for any shifts in trading volume or sentiment that could hint at a reversal. The next few days will be crucial for gauging whether this inflow is a flash in the pan or the start of something bigger. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Bitcoin’s price around the $30,000 level; sustained movement above could signal a bullish trend, while a pullback may test support levels.
Crypto tax data to be collected in 48 countries ahead of CARF 2027
Crypto service providers in Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework-participating jurisdictions will start ramping up transaction data collection and begin sharing information in 2027. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The 2027 deadline for transaction data collection is a game changer for crypto transparency. This move could significantly impact how traders approach their strategies, especially in jurisdictions that are part of the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework. With increased scrutiny, we might see a shift in trading volumes and liquidity as participants adjust to the new compliance landscape. Traders should be aware that this could lead to heightened volatility in the lead-up to 2027, as firms scramble to adapt. Moreover, the ripple effects could extend to related markets, such as forex, where regulatory compliance is already a hot topic. Watch for potential shifts in market sentiment as institutions reassess their crypto exposure in light of these upcoming regulations. Here’s the thing: while this might sound like a long way off, the groundwork is being laid now. Traders should monitor any early compliance measures or pilot programs that could emerge in the next year or two, as these could provide insights into how the market will react. Keep an eye on major exchanges and their responses to these regulations, as they could set the tone for the broader market. 📮 Takeaway Watch for early compliance measures from exchanges as they prepare for 2027; these could signal shifts in market sentiment and trading strategies.
Cash-like privacy is among digital euro’s ‘hardest political tradeoffs’
Experts say the digital euro’s outcome hinges on a political compromise with parties fighting for the limits of privacy and online functionality. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The digital euro debate is heating up, and here’s why traders should care: political compromises could shape its adoption and impact the euro’s value. As discussions around privacy and online functionality intensify, the outcome could influence not just the euro but also broader European financial markets. If privacy advocates win, we might see a slower rollout, which could lead to volatility in euro-denominated assets. Conversely, a more functional digital euro could boost transaction efficiency, potentially strengthening the euro against other currencies. Traders should keep an eye on political developments and sentiment shifts, as these could create trading opportunities or risks. Watch for key announcements from the European Central Bank and any shifts in public opinion. These factors could set the stage for significant price movements in the euro and related assets, especially if a compromise is reached that alters the digital euro’s framework significantly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor political developments regarding the digital euro, as compromises could lead to volatility in euro-denominated assets and impact trading strategies.
Coinbase exec defends CLARITY Act delay: ‘I completely understand’
The US Genius Act dealt with “structurally simpler” issues than the CLARITY Act, which has yet to be passed into US law, according to a Coinbase executive. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The ongoing legislative discussions around the US Genius Act versus the CLARITY Act are crucial for traders to watch. While the Genius Act addresses simpler structural issues, the CLARITY Act’s delay could signal a more complex regulatory environment ahead. This uncertainty can lead to increased volatility in crypto markets, particularly affecting assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which often react to regulatory news. Traders should be aware that any movement in these legislative processes can trigger significant price swings. If the Genius Act progresses, it might provide a clearer framework for crypto operations, potentially boosting market confidence. However, if the CLARITY Act remains stalled, it could lead to heightened skepticism among investors, impacting trading strategies. Keep an eye on how these developments influence trading volumes and sentiment in the coming weeks, especially as we approach key monthly closes that could set the tone for Q4. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the progress of the Genius Act and the CLARITY Act closely; any legislative movement could significantly impact crypto volatility and trading strategies in the coming weeks.
Rep. Torres to target insider trading on prediction markets after bet on Maduro
A $400,000 Polymarket wager tied to Maduro’s capture has prompted Ritchie Torres to propose legislation restricting insider trading on political prediction markets. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The $400,000 wager on Maduro’s capture raises serious questions about the integrity of political prediction markets. Legislation aimed at restricting insider trading could reshape how traders approach these markets. If passed, it might limit the flow of information and influence market dynamics, making it harder to gauge true sentiment. Traders should keep an eye on how this proposed legislation unfolds, as it could lead to increased volatility in political bets. Additionally, the ripple effects could extend to other prediction markets, impacting liquidity and trading strategies. Watch for key developments in this legislation over the coming weeks, as it could create new opportunities or risks depending on how the market reacts to regulatory changes. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the progress of Ritchie Torres’ legislation on insider trading, as it could significantly impact political prediction markets and trading strategies in the coming weeks.
Coinbase pauses local fiat rails in Argentina less than a year after its arrival
Coinbase has halted peso-based USDC on- and off-ramps in Argentina less than a year after launch, citing a review of local operations while keeping crypto trading fully active. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Coinbase’s suspension of peso-based USDC operations in Argentina raises red flags for traders: This move, just months after launching the service, signals potential regulatory or operational challenges in a market that’s already volatile. While trading remains active, the halt on fiat on- and off-ramps could limit liquidity and create friction for users trying to convert crypto to pesos. Traders should be wary of how this affects USDC’s stability in the region, especially if local demand shifts or if users turn to alternative stablecoins. Look for potential ripple effects on other crypto exchanges operating in Argentina, as they might face similar scrutiny. The broader context here is Argentina’s ongoing economic instability, which could lead to increased volatility in crypto assets as traders react to news. Keep an eye on USDC’s price movements and any changes in trading volume, particularly on the daily charts, as these could indicate shifts in market sentiment. Monitoring regulatory updates will also be crucial in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch USDC’s trading volume and price fluctuations closely; regulatory changes could significantly impact liquidity and stability in Argentina’s crypto market.
US attacks Venezuela, captures President Maduro
The US launched military operations in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Images from the country showed multiple strikes and fires. US President Trump announced that Madura was captured.An executive from state oil company PDVSA said the La Guaira port was severely damaged but that oil facilities were unscathed. Trump We will wait to hear what Trump has to say about the plans for what comes next but in December he talked about the 2007 seizure of some assets from American oil companies and that his intention was “getting land, oil rights, whatever we had” returned.”They took it away because we had a president that maybe wasn’t watching. But they’re not going to do that again.””We want it back,” he said. “They took our oil rights — we had a lot of oil there. As you know they threw our companies out, and we want it back.”Russia responded to the reports saying that if actions took place “constitute an unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an independent state”.US Senator Mike Lee said he spoke with Secretary of State Marco Rubio who said “Maduro has been arrested by US personnel to stand trial on criminal charges in the United States, and that the kinetic action we saw tonight was deployed to protect and defend those executing the arrest warrant.”The EU foreign affairs representative Kaja Kallas said:I have spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and our Ambassador in Caracas. The EU is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela. The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. Under all circumstances, the principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected. We call for restraint. The safety of EU citizens in the country is our top priority.For markets, this might be a short-lived event but that could change quickly depending on how Venezuela responds. My guess is that America had local help and there is some kind of coup underway, otherwise Maduro will be replaced by deputies. In terms of markets, Venezuela has massive oil reserves but its production and exports are less than 1 million barrels per day and have been disrupted recently anyway. What could be more concerning is the message this sends in Latin America and how China and Russia respond. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US military’s actions in Venezuela could shake oil markets significantly. With Maduro’s capture, geopolitical tensions are likely to escalate, impacting oil supply chains. Venezuela’s oil production has already been struggling, and damage to La Guaira port could exacerbate this situation. Traders should keep an eye on crude oil prices, especially if disruptions in Venezuelan exports occur. Additionally, the broader implications for OPEC and global oil supply could lead to volatility in related markets, including energy stocks and commodities. Watch for any immediate reactions in oil futures, particularly if prices breach key resistance levels. The situation is fluid, and the market’s response could be swift, especially if sanctions or further military actions follow. On the flip side, if the situation stabilizes quickly, we might see a rebound in oil prices as traders price in a potential recovery in Venezuelan production. Keep an eye on the next few days for any updates from the US government or PDVSA regarding oil production forecasts and export capabilities. 📮 Takeaway Monitor crude oil prices closely; any disruption in Venezuelan exports could lead to significant volatility in the energy market.
Newsquawk Week Ahead: US and Canada jobs, ISM PMIs, EZ Inflation, and Fed Chair pick (TBC)
Sun: OPEC+Mon: European Epiphany holiday (No After-Hours Trading in Italy); UK Mortgage Approvals/Lending (Nov), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec), Final PMIs (Dec)Tue: European Epiphany holiday (No After-Hours Trading in Italy); French & German Prelim HICP (Dec), EZ Final PMIs (Dec), UK Final PMIs (Dec)Wed: Australian CPI (Nov), German Retail Sales (Nov), Unemployment (Dec), Chinese FX Reserves (Dec), EZ Flash HICP (Dec), US ADP (Dec), ISM Services (Dec), JOLTS (Nov)Thu: SNB Minutes (Dec); German Industrial Orders (Nov), Swedish Flash CPIF (Dec), Swiss CPI (Dec), EZ Producer Prices (Nov), Consumer Confidence Final (Dec), US Weekly Claims (w/e 27th Dec), Chinese Trade Balance (Dec)Fri: German Industrial Production (Nov), Norwegian CPI (Dec), EZ Retail Sales (Nov), US NFP (Dec), Canadian Jobs (Dec), US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Jan)Fed Chair Nominee (TBC): US President Trump has suggested that he will name the successor to Fed Chair Powell early in 2026, CNBC reported the first week of January. The list of candidates has greatly narrowed from the 12 candidates initially. For the most part, NEC Director Hassett was seen as the clear favourite to replace Powell. However, in recent weeks, several reports have suggested that insiders are recommending against appointing Hassett as Fed Chair, and his lead as favourite has diminished somewhat. President Trump again reiterated criticism of current Fed Chair Powell for cutting rates too slowly, calling him a fool; Trump also repeated claims that Fed HQ renovations cost USD 4.1bln (others have suggested it is around USD 2.5bln), threatening a lawsuit, and saying he would love to fire Powell. The four candidates are: NEC Director Hassett (Polymarket has him as favourite, at 41%), former Fed Governor Warsh (Polymarket’s second favourite, at 32%), Fed Governor Waller (15%) and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder (4%). Waller is the only internal candidate. Powell’s chair term expires in May 2026. To read the full preview, please click here.OPEC+ (Sun): OPEC+ is expected to reaffirm its production pause through Q1, maintaining the halt to further supply increases, according to Bloomberg sources. The stance reflects concerns over a looming global oversupply backdrop, with crude prices sharply lower over 2025 and forecasters warning of a potential glut in 2026. Delegates indicate little appetite to resume hikes at this stage, according to reports. Recent Saudi–UAE geopolitical tensions have generated headlines but are widely viewed as noise rather than a threat to OPEC cohesion, with no expectation that they will spill over into production policy.ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mon):As a basis of comparison, S&P Global’s flash PMI data for December showed US manufacturing activity continued to expand in December, but momentum weakened. Output growth slowed to a three-month low, and overall PMI eased to 51.8, the weakest in five months. New orders fell for the first time in a year, signalling softening demand despite firms maintaining higher production levels. Backlogs declined, and input buying was cut, while inventories of unsold goods accumulated again. Looking ahead, S&P said that the outlook has become more cautious: lower sales raise concerns that current production levels are unsustainable unless demand recovers, while elevated costs linked to tariffs and supply delays continue to weigh on confidence.ISM Services PMI (Wed): As a basis of comparison, S&P Global’s flash PMI data for December showed services activity expanding in December but at a notably slower pace. The business activity index fell to a six-month low, with growth in new business slipping to its weakest in 20 months, pointing to cooling demand across the sector. Employment growth nearly stalled as firms became more cautious. The outlook remains positive but has deteriorated slightly, sitting below the long-run average, S&P said. Rising input costs and sharply higher prices charged—partly blamed on tariffs and labour costs—are eroding confidence, although hopes of policy support and lower interest rates provide some offset.Australian CPI (Wed): The previous release showed CPI at 3.8% Y/Y in October, up from 3.6%, with the trimmed-mean (RBA’s preferred inflation gauge) at 3.3% Y/Y — both measures above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Inflationary pressures have lingered late in 2025, contributing to the ongoing debate around the RBA’s policy outlook for 2026. Recent RBA narrative suggested that higher electricity prices due to the end of government rebates are biasing the annual inflation rate higher into mid-2026, and that policymakers have signalled they are prepared to reconsider rate moves if inflation does not subside.EZ Flash HICP (Wed): Investec expects Eurozone inflation to remain in a “good place”, with headline HICP seen dipping 0.1pp to 2.0% Y/Y, exactly in line with the ECB’s target, while core HICP is forecast unchanged at 2.4% Y/Y. Disinflation is expected to be driven primarily by lower fuel prices, alongside a partial unwind of November’s softness in non-energy goods and firmness in services. That said, services inflation will remain closely watched by the ECB given firmer-than-expected wage growth, while authorities are also monitoring potential trade diversion effects from Chinese exports, which have so far had a limited impact on consumer prices.SNB Minutes (Thu): In December, the SNB maintained its policy rate at 0.00%, as expected, and reiterated its willingness to be active in the FX market as necessary. On the economy, the SNB maintained its inflation forecast for 2025 but sharply cut its 2026 projection to 0.3% from a previous forecast of 0.5%. At the subsequent press conference, Chairman Schlegel reiterated that the bank stands ready to intervene in the FX market and, more notably, said he could not say that a lower CPI outlook makes NIRP more likely. From the minutes, attention will be on further detail around the inflation forecasts and whether Schlegel’s view on NIRP is shared by the board as a whole.Swedish Flash CPIF (Thu): November’s reading came in cooler than expected at 2.3% Y/Y (exp. 2.5%, prev. 3.1%). Thereafter, the one-year money-market view fell to 1.6% from 2.1%, while the five-year view was maintained at 2.1%. In December, the Riksbank maintained its policy rate at 1.75%, as expected. On inflation, the Riksbank said that while there have been some month-to-month variations, inflation has overall developed in line with
Breaking: US Trump speaks about Venezuelan President Maduro's capture
United States (US) President Donald Trump gave a press conference at his residence in Mar-a-Lago. 🔗 Source