Prior was +1.5%Total sales +1.4% y/y vs +1.6% priorA separate survey from Barclays put UK consumer spending down 1.1% in November, worse than -0.8% in October. It was also the worst y/y reading since Feb 2021. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight UK consumer spending just hit a rough patch, and here’s why that matters for traders: With ADA currently at $0.43, the dip in consumer spending could signal broader economic weakness, impacting risk appetite across markets. The 1.1% decline in November, worse than the previous month’s -0.8%, suggests that consumers are tightening their belts, which could lead to reduced demand for discretionary assets, including cryptocurrencies. If this trend continues, we might see a shift in investor sentiment, pushing traders to adopt more conservative strategies, especially in the crypto space. Keep an eye on ADA’s support levels around $0.40; a breach could trigger further selling pressure. Conversely, if the market reacts positively to any upcoming economic data or stimulus measures, we could see a bounce back. Watch for correlations with traditional markets, as a downturn in consumer sentiment often leads to increased volatility in crypto assets. The real story is how these economic indicators could ripple through to affect not just ADA but the entire crypto market, so stay alert for any shifts in sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Monitor ADA’s support at $0.40; a break could signal increased selling pressure amid declining UK consumer spending.

Prior business conditions +9Business confidence +1 vs +6 prior National Australia Bank, one of the country’s “Big Four” banks. This survey combines three components—trading conditions, profitability, and employment—into a single index that shows whether business activity is expanding or contracting. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Business confidence in Australia just hit +1, and here’s why that matters for traders: This uptick in confidence, albeit modest compared to the previous +6, suggests a potential slowdown in economic expansion. For traders, this could mean a more cautious approach to risk assets, particularly in the crypto space. With ETH currently at $3,106.17, any signs of economic contraction could lead to increased volatility as investors reassess their positions. If business conditions continue to weaken, we might see ETH and ADA, currently at $0.43, facing downward pressure as traders flee to safer assets. But here’s the flip side: if this confidence shift is temporary and the market rebounds, we could see a quick reversal. Keep an eye on the $3,000 support level for ETH; a break below could trigger further selling. Conversely, a bounce back could open up opportunities for short-term trades. Watch for upcoming economic indicators that might provide clarity on the trend—these could be pivotal for your trading strategy in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Monitor ETH at $3,000 for potential support; a break could signal further downside, while a rebound may offer buying opportunities.

The latest yuan fix is out. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent yuan fix could shake up forex pairs, especially with ADA currently at $0.43. As the yuan’s value fluctuates, it can impact global risk sentiment and liquidity, affecting crypto assets like ADA. Traders should keep an eye on how the yuan’s strength or weakness correlates with ADA’s price movements. If the yuan weakens significantly, we might see increased volatility in ADA as investors seek safer assets. Watch for ADA to hold above $0.40 as a critical support level; a drop below could trigger further selling pressure. Conversely, if the yuan stabilizes or strengthens, ADA might find renewed buying interest, especially if it breaks above $0.45. Here’s the thing: while mainstream coverage might focus solely on the yuan’s impact on traditional markets, the ripple effects on crypto could be substantial. Keep an eye on the daily charts for ADA to identify any emerging patterns that could signal a breakout or breakdown in the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Monitor ADA closely around the $0.40 support level; a break below could lead to increased selling pressure.

It’s hard to believe that Charlie Munger died two years ago but with the passing of time, his advice remains some of the best stuff ever said about investing.Here is a great one:”It’s amazing how intelligent it is to spend some time just sitting. A lot of people are way too active.”Along the same lines:”If we’ve got one thing we can do more of, we’re not interested in anything that’s not better than that. That simplifies life a great deal.”The barrage of information in today’s world and the low cost of trading lead to one of the great investing vices: Over-trading.And if you want to go back 100 years before Munger, here is the advice from Larry Livermore:“It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was my sitting.” “Got that? My sitting tight!”Find something you have great conviction in and at a good price. Buy it and wait. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

The RBA decision is at 2:30 pm Sydney time or 0330 GMT or 10:30 pm in New York. There is a news conference an hour later and that will be critical.I find the RBA to be a critical central bank to watch as it’s at the leading edge of the large group of central banks that cut rates following the inflation spike but has now found a bottom. The next move — it appears — will be to start hiking rates. The timing of that is what has my attention and here is what the market sees in terms of probabilities.Feb 3 (next meeting): 16% chance of a hikeMarch 17: 33% chance of a hikeMay 5: 53% chance of a hikeJune 16: 78% chance of a hikeAug 11: 1 hike fully priced in, small chance of a secondDec 8: 1 hike fully priced in, 60% chance of a secondIf the RBA and Bullock are hawkish, look for those numbers to creep higher, though it’s premature to expect any kind of strong short-term signal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The RBA’s upcoming decision is crucial for traders, especially given its timing and the potential market reactions. With the announcement set for 2:30 PM Sydney time, traders should brace for volatility across AUD pairs, particularly if the RBA hints at future rate hikes or maintains a dovish stance. The subsequent news conference could provide insights into the RBA’s economic outlook, which could further influence market sentiment. Look for key levels in AUD/USD; a break below recent support could trigger sell-offs, while a bullish tone from the RBA might push it higher. This decision also has ripple effects on commodities, especially if the RBA’s stance impacts the Australian dollar’s strength against gold and oil prices. Keep an eye on how institutional players react post-announcement, as their positioning could set the tone for the next trading sessions. Overall, this is a pivotal moment for traders to reassess their strategies based on the RBA’s guidance and the broader economic context. 📮 Takeaway Watch for AUD/USD reaction post-RBA decision; a break below key support could signal further downside.

Gambling, sports betting, crypto speculation and now online trading are part of a bigger trend of deregulation of vice and the lack of predictable pathways to succeed in the modern world.Here is a great essay from John Ehrett on what has young men struggling so badly and turning towards so many high risk behviours. The argument is that the economy is increasingly random. It argues that for Gen Z men, the link between effort and reward has broken, turning life into a low-probability trade where many are checking out and others are taking wild risks for a chance at a comfortable life.College admissions are now opaque and random, and there’s a deep sense that it’s rigged by alumni and other connectionsHiring and resume keywords are an algorithmic black boxDating apps have turned romance into a high-frequency trading environmentI’m not sure I agree with some of his solutions but the system needs to stop feeling like a slot machine. The “social contract” has stopped working for young people and it can’t last. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

Prior was 3.60%The decision was unanimous The last cut was in AugustThe next decision is Feb 3Highlights from the statement:Recent data suggests risks to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take “a little longer” to assesses the persistence of inflation pressuresVarious indicators suggest that labor market conditions remain a little tightBoard will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisionsEconomic activity continues to recoverUncertainty in the global economy remains significant but so far there has been minimal impact on overall growth and trade in Australia’s major trading partnersIs this the bottom in rates? The market is pricing in a hike by August 2026.AUD/USD fell about 15 pips on the headlines but quickly recovered, suggesting the market was worried about something more hawkish. A bit of the March hike probability has faded, down to about 27% from 33%.The upcoming inflation figures are going to be major AUD movers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The unanimous decision to hold rates steady signals a cautious approach amid rising inflation risks. Traders should note that the Fed’s acknowledgment of upside inflation pressures suggests a potential shift in sentiment. With the next decision on February 3, market participants need to monitor economic indicators closely, especially labor market conditions. If inflation persists, we could see a more aggressive stance from the Fed, impacting not just forex but also equities and commodities. Keep an eye on the 3.60% level as a psychological benchmark; any hints of rate hikes could trigger volatility across markets, particularly in interest-sensitive assets like tech stocks and real estate. On the flip side, if inflation shows signs of stabilizing, we might see a rally in risk assets. So, watch for any shifts in economic data leading up to the February meeting, as they could dictate market direction significantly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 3.60% rate level and upcoming economic data closely; any signs of persistent inflation could lead to market volatility ahead of the February 3 decision.

The Nikkei is up 0.2% in morning trade in what would be the second day of gains. We are pushing towards the top half of the range over the past month but don’t appear to be in a hurry to get there. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Nikkei’s slight uptick signals cautious optimism, but traders should stay alert to potential resistance levels. With ADA currently at $0.43, it’s crucial to monitor how broader market sentiment, particularly in equities, impacts crypto assets. The Nikkei’s movement could influence risk appetite, affecting ADA’s trading dynamics. If the index pushes higher, we might see increased capital flow into altcoins like ADA, but a reversal could trigger profit-taking. Watch for ADA to hold above $0.40 for bullish momentum or risk a dip below that level, which could signal a bearish trend. Keep an eye on the correlation between ADA and the Nikkei; a strong correlation could provide insights into market sentiment shifts. 📮 Takeaway Watch ADA closely; if it holds above $0.40, it could signal bullish momentum, but a drop below that level may indicate a bearish trend.

The statement was out earlier and Bullock will speak soon:At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent.While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it has picked up more recently. The Board’s judgement is that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors and there is uncertainty about how much signal to take from the monthly CPI data given it is a new data series. Nevertheless, the data do suggest some signs of a more broadly based pick-up in inflation, part of which may be persistent and will bear close monitoring.Economic activity continues to recover. Growth in private demand has strengthened, driven by both consumption and investment. Activity and prices in the housing market are also continuing to pick up. Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year, credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully to demand, prices and wages. On the other hand, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen more recently.Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain a little tight. The unemployment rate has risen gradually over the past year and employment growth has slowed. However, measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates, surveyed measures of capacity utilisation are above their long-run average and business surveys and liaison continue to suggest that a significant share of firms are experiencing difficulty sourcing labour. Wages growth, as measured by the Wage Price Index, has eased from its peak but broader measures of wages continue to show strong growth and growth in unit labour costs remains high.There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation and the extent to which monetary policy remains restrictive. On the domestic side, the pick-up in momentum has been stronger than anticipated, particularly in the private sector. If this continues, it is likely to add to capacity pressures. Uncertainty in the global economy remains significant but so far there has been minimal impact on overall growth and trade in Australia’s major trading partners.DecisionThe recent data suggest the risks to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess the persistence of inflationary pressures. Private demand is recovering. Labour market conditions still appear a little tight but further modest easing is expected. The Board therefore judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve.The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.Today’s policy decision was unanimous. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The cash rate holding at 3.60% signals a cautious approach amid mixed inflation trends. With inflation showing signs of recent upticks after a decline, traders should be on alert for potential shifts in monetary policy. This decision reflects the Board’s balancing act—keeping rates steady while monitoring economic indicators. For forex traders, this could mean volatility in currency pairs, especially AUD/USD, as market participants digest the implications of this stance. If inflation continues to rise, we might see pressure on the Board to act, which could lead to rate hikes in the near future. Watch for key inflation data releases in the coming weeks, as they could trigger significant market reactions. Also, consider the broader context: if inflation persists, it could impact risk sentiment across markets, affecting equities and commodities. Traders should keep an eye on the 3.60% level as a psychological barrier, and any hints from Bullock’s upcoming speech could provide further clarity on future monetary policy direction. 📮 Takeaway Monitor inflation data closely; any signs of sustained increases could prompt a shift in the cash rate, impacting AUD and related markets.

Did not explicitly consider case for a rate hike this meetingDiscussed circumstances in which we might have to tightenDid discuss what they might have to do if rates need to go upNeed to be cautious on monthly CPI series as yetInflation and jobs data will be important for February meeting Would not put timing on any future move, will be meeting by meetingWe will be looking at quarterly inflation numbersIf inflation looks to be persistent, it will raise some questions for policyIt looks like more rate cuts are not neededBoard does not think the downside risks have abated, upside risks are greaterThe February meeting is the next one as the RBA goes on summer holiday. Needless to say the upcoming data will be critical.AUD/USD jumped on her comments.More:RBA will not react to one economic numberOutlook is for an extended pause or rate hikes, would not put a probability on itRate cuts are not on the horizonLooking for clues in underlying inflation on whether pick up was temporaryThe board is uncomfortable with where inflation isIf data shows that inflation is not slowing, that will be considered at the February RBA meetingShe is certainly putting February in play but the market sees this as a scenario where February is where she would hint at a hike for the March meeting. That second meeting is now 45% priced for a hike. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Fed’s cautious stance on rate hikes is a critical signal for traders right now. With inflation and jobs data looming ahead of the February meeting, traders should be on high alert. If the CPI series shows unexpected spikes, we could see a shift in sentiment that might impact both equities and forex markets. A tighter monetary policy could strengthen the dollar, affecting pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Watch for key levels around recent highs and lows in these pairs, as they could provide trading opportunities. On the flip side, if inflation data comes in softer than expected, it might lead to a risk-on environment, pushing equities higher and weakening the dollar. Keep an eye on the market’s reaction to these data points; they could set the tone for the next few weeks. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the upcoming CPI and jobs data closely; unexpected results could trigger significant moves in forex pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD.