Fed’s Williams: Downside risks to employment have increasedUS November S&P Global services flash PMI 55.0 vs 54.6 expectedUS November final UMich consumer sentiment 51.0 vs 50.5 expectedUS real weekly earnings for September -0.1% versus -0.3% in AugustCanada September retail sales -0.7% vs -0.7% expectedPutin: Has received the US plan for peace.Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 remains at 4.2%BOJ’s Masu: BOJ is close to decision to raise ratesOctober CPI has been canceled. November CPI will be released on November 18ECB’s Muller: Seems we have inflation close enough to 2% for foreseeable futureUS wholesale sales for August 0.1% versus 0.4% estimateFed’s Logan says should hold rates ‘for a time’ to assessFed’s Collins: September jobs data was mixedTrump: Ukraine is losing land. Thursday is an appropriate deadline for Ukraine planMarkets:S&P 500 up 1.0%Gold down $13 to $4060WTI crude oil down $1.03 to $57.97US 10-year yields down 3.9 bps to 4.065%Bitcoin down 2.6% to $84,926JPY leads, CHF lagsThe mood darkened deeper early on Friday with stock futures sliding and bitcoin falling as low as $80,555. The turnaround initially came on comments from NY Fed President Williams, who indicated he was inclined to support a rate cut again in December. Williams is at the core of the Fed and isn’t likely to go go against Powell so the thinking was that this was a deliberate dovish message and market pricing from about a 30% chance of a cut to 60%. The Fed blackout starts at midnight next Friday so it’s going to be an interesting week, including ADP employment. Despite that shift, the optimism didn’t initially last. Stock markets gave back early gains and fell into negative territory, though it was extremely choppy.The second lift came when the White House floated selling Nvidia chips to China once again. That added some big bids to equities and helped Nvidia pare losses. At one point, stocks were significantly higher than the close but there was some selling in the final two hours, likely in part to skepticism about this report and lingering worries about an AI bubble. That tees up another lively week next week.In FX, the message continues to be far less worry about the economy. Reports from The Gap and Ross Stores included favorable commentary on consumers and both shares rose 8% to be among the leaders. That continues the message from WMT earnings a day earlier. On net, the moves in FX were mostly unnotable this week with some mild EUR weakness and USD strength.The exception is the yen, which continued to be beaten up this week and hit a record low against the euro and a long-term low vs the pound. USD/JPY intervention talk has begun and a BOJ official today made some hawkish comments. That helped to reverse the rally today and the pair fell a full cent.After being a market darling for many weeks, gold continues to consolidate around $4100 but it’s been volatile within its range. On the more-bearish side, oil significantly slackened as Trump pushes a new peace plan for Ukraine with a ‘deadline’ for next Thursday.Have a great weekend. I will be in London at the Finance Magnates London Summit next week. Stop in and say high if you’re in the neighbourhood. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight With ADA at $0.40, the Fed’s recent comments could shake up crypto sentiment. Fed’s Williams highlighted increased downside risks to employment, which might signal a more cautious economic outlook. This could lead to volatility in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like ADA. The S&P Global services PMI came in at 55.0, slightly above expectations, but the mixed economic signals could keep traders on edge. If ADA breaks below $0.38, it might trigger further selling pressure, while a rally above $0.42 could attract buyers looking for a rebound. Keep an eye on broader market trends and sentiment shifts, especially as consumer sentiment remains weak at 51.0, indicating potential caution among retail investors. The real story is how these economic indicators could impact institutional interest in ADA. If employment risks materialize, we might see a flight to safer assets, which could negatively affect ADA’s price. Watch for reactions from large holders and institutions, as their movements could dictate short-term trends in the crypto market. 📮 Takeaway Monitor ADA closely; a break below $0.38 could trigger selling, while a rise above $0.42 may signal a buying opportunity.
Exactly One Year After Strategy’s All-Time High, the Bitcoin-Linked Slide Intensifies
Strategy’s stock price has fallen sharply alongside bitcoin, marking one of its worst drawdowns since it adopted a bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Strategy’s stock price plummeting with Bitcoin signals deeper market concerns. This sharp decline is particularly alarming as it marks one of the worst drawdowns since the company adopted its Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020. Traders should consider that the correlation between Bitcoin and related equities is intensifying, suggesting that any volatility in Bitcoin could lead to significant moves in stocks tied to it. If Bitcoin continues to struggle, we might see further pressure on Strategy’s stock, potentially testing key support levels established in previous market cycles. Watch for Bitcoin’s price action closely; if it breaks below recent lows, it could trigger a cascade effect across related assets, including Strategy’s stock. On the flip side, if Bitcoin finds support and rebounds, it might provide a lifeline for Strategy, allowing it to recover some lost ground. Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s resistance levels and any bullish signals that could emerge in the coming days, as these will be crucial for gauging the potential for a turnaround. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Bitcoin’s price closely; a break below recent lows could further drag down Strategy’s stock, while a rebound might offer a recovery opportunity.
Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin, Ether Slide as Liquidity Crisis Fuels Heavy Sell-Off
Crypto markets plunged toward April lows on Friday as a lingering liquidity crunch amplified price swings. Bitcoin and ether fell more than 10%. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Ethereum’s drop to $2,745.85 signals a critical liquidity issue that traders can’t ignore. With both Bitcoin and Ether falling over 10%, this isn’t just a blip; it’s a reflection of broader market sentiment. The liquidity crunch is causing increased volatility, which could lead to further sell-offs if traders panic. Watch for support levels around April’s lows—if breached, we could see a cascade effect across the crypto space. This situation also raises questions about institutional interest; if liquidity remains tight, large players might hesitate to enter or add to positions, further impacting price stability. On the flip side, this could present a buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on oversold conditions. Keep an eye on the 24-hour trading volume and any news regarding liquidity injections from major exchanges or central banks, as these could provide clues on potential reversals or continued declines. 📮 Takeaway Watch for Ethereum to hold above $2,745.85; a break below could trigger more selling pressure across the crypto market.
Base’s Flashblocks Let Bots Front-Run Its Own Founder as Snipers Walk Off With $1.3M
Two traders captured more than $1.3 million in profits by exploiting Base’s new “flashblocks” system during the debut of the network founder’s creator coin. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The $1.3 million profit from Base’s flashblocks system highlights a critical shift in trading strategies. This new feature allows traders to execute transactions with minimal latency, creating opportunities for arbitrage and quick gains. For day traders, this means adapting to a faster-paced environment where timing is everything. The success of these traders could prompt more participants to explore flashblocks, potentially increasing volatility and liquidity in the market. Watch for how this feature impacts trading volumes and price movements in related assets, as increased participation could lead to rapid price swings. However, it’s worth questioning whether this trend is sustainable. If too many traders flock to flashblocks, we might see diminishing returns as competition increases. Keep an eye on the daily trading volumes and any announcements from Base that could affect the system’s functionality or accessibility. 📮 Takeaway Monitor daily trading volumes on Base and be ready for potential volatility as more traders adopt flashblocks for quick profits.
The Canary in the Coalmine: Crypto Daybook Americas
Your day-ahead look for Nov. 21, 2025 🔗 Source
Bitcoin Bounces Above $84K as Fed's Williams Puts December Rate Cut Back on Table
Previously having essentially written off chances of further monetary ease in 2025, interest rate traders are now pricing more than a 70% chance of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Interest rate traders are shifting their expectations, now seeing over a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in December. This change reflects growing concerns about economic slowdown and inflation pressures, which could impact various asset classes, including equities and commodities. For traders, this is a critical pivot point; if the Fed does cut rates, it could lead to a significant rally in risk assets, particularly in tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, which often thrive in lower interest rate environments. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, as both could react sharply to any Fed announcements. However, there’s a flip side—if the Fed holds rates steady, expect volatility as traders recalibrate their positions. The market’s current pricing suggests a strong belief in easing, so any deviation from this could lead to a sharp correction. Watch the economic indicators leading up to the December meeting, particularly inflation data and employment figures, as these will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s decision. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the Fed’s December meeting closely; a rate cut could boost risk assets like tech stocks and Bitcoin, while a hold may trigger volatility.
Attention Bitcoin Bulls: BTC is Now at Levels Preceding FTX-Era Extremes
Short-term realized-loss dominance is typical of market stress, but the magnitude this week stands out. 🔗 Source
GSR Expands Institutional Platform to Raise Transparency, Control in Crypto Trading
GSR upgraded GSR One, unifying market making, over-the-counter trading and treasury services as demand for institutional-grade crypto infrastructure increases. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight GSR’s upgrade to GSR One is a game-changer for institutional crypto trading. By unifying market making, OTC trading, and treasury services, they’re addressing the growing demand for robust infrastructure in the crypto space. This move signals a shift towards more sophisticated trading solutions, which could attract larger players into the market. As institutions look for reliable platforms, this could lead to increased liquidity and volatility in crypto assets. Traders should keep an eye on how this affects trading volumes and spreads, especially in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. On the flip side, while this upgrade may enhance trading efficiency, it could also lead to heightened competition among existing platforms. If GSR captures significant market share, other firms may need to innovate quickly, which could create opportunities for savvy traders to capitalize on short-term price movements. Watch for any shifts in trading patterns over the next few weeks as institutions begin to adopt these new services. 📮 Takeaway Monitor trading volumes in Bitcoin and Ethereum as GSR’s new services roll out; increased liquidity could lead to significant price movements.
CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Falls 3.3% as Index Declines
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was also trading lower, down 2.3% from Thursday. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Bitcoin Cash is down 2.3% and here’s why that matters: traders should be cautious. This decline could signal a broader bearish sentiment in the crypto market, especially if Bitcoin itself shows weakness. BCH often follows Bitcoin’s lead, so a sustained downturn could push it below key support levels. If BCH breaks below its recent lows, it might trigger stop-loss orders, leading to further selling pressure. Keep an eye on the 24-hour trading volume as well; a spike could indicate increased volatility. On the flip side, if BCH finds support and reverses, it could present a buying opportunity for swing traders looking for a rebound. Watch for any news or developments that could impact the broader crypto market, as they often have ripple effects on altcoins like BCH. The next few days will be crucial; monitor the price action closely for signs of a reversal or continuation of this downtrend. 📮 Takeaway Watch for Bitcoin Cash to hold above its recent lows; a break could lead to increased selling pressure, while a bounce might offer a buying opportunity.
BTC Traders Brace for Price Crash to $75K; No Bottom Seen: Research Firm
Put options have dominated trading activity over the past week. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Put options are taking center stage, and here’s why that matters for traders right now: The recent surge in put options indicates a growing bearish sentiment among traders. This could signal that many are hedging against potential downturns or anticipating a correction in the market. When put options dominate trading activity, it often reflects a lack of confidence in the current price levels, which can lead to increased volatility. Traders should keep an eye on key support levels; if these break, we could see a cascade effect leading to further selling pressure. But don’t overlook the flip side—this could also present a buying opportunity if the market overreacts. If the price stabilizes after a dip, it might attract buyers looking for value. Watch for any shifts in open interest or volume in call options as a potential indicator of a reversal. Keep your charts handy and monitor the daily price action closely; the next few sessions will be crucial in determining the market’s direction. 📮 Takeaway Watch for key support levels to hold; a break could trigger further selling, while stabilization might offer a buying opportunity.