New Zealand third quarter producer price rises not as fast as expected Data from Stats NZ.New Zealand PPI Outputs +0.6% q/qexpected 0.7%, prior 0.6%Inputs 0.2% q/qexpected 0.9%, prior 0.6%Slower wholesale inflation will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The bank is continuing on its easing cycle in order to address NZ economic growth cocnerns. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight New Zealand’s PPI data just missed expectations, and here’s why that matters: The third quarter producer price index (PPI) outputs rose by 0.6%, falling short of the anticipated 0.7%. This slower inflation trend, particularly in inputs which only increased by 0.2% versus the expected 0.9%, signals a potential easing in wholesale price pressures. For traders, this could mean a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as they continue their easing cycle. If inflation remains subdued, the RBNZ might feel less pressure to raise interest rates, which could lead to a weaker New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the forex market. Look for the NZD to react to this news, particularly against currencies like the AUD and USD. If the NZD/USD pair breaks below key support levels, it could indicate further downside. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators and central bank communications for clues on future monetary policy. The real story here is how this data might influence market sentiment and positioning ahead of the next RBNZ meeting. 📮 Takeaway Watch for NZD/USD to test support levels; a break could signal further weakness as the RBNZ eases policy.

US stocks close lower. Midday rally runs out of steamUK media reports that Reeves will consider ‘shielding’ small businesses from tax risesBLS :US PPI to be released on November 25Reuters Poll: Trump approval rating falls to 38%. His lowest since returning to the WHUSDCAD Technicals: USDCAD falls through 61.8% retracement and tests old ceiling/floorTrump says he thinks he already knows the choice for Fed chairTrump: China is on schedule in buying US farm productsI tried Gemini 3 and it’s impressive. Why it could be a gamechanger in marketsFed’s Barkin says he hopes coming data will clarity direction of economyGoldman Sachs thinks that 2026 will be the pain trade for the oil marketBank of American warns on dangerously low cash levelsUS August factory orders +1.4% vs +1.4% expectedNAHB US November housing market index 38 vs 37 expectedADP weekly US employment vs –2500 last week (Confirmed)BOE’s Pill: Underlying inflation dynamics in UK are lower than headline suggestsCanada Oct housing starts 232.8K vs 265.0K expectedThe USD is mixed to start the day and little changed vs the 3 major currency pairsinvestingLive European FX news wrap: The risk sentiment remains cautiousThe ADP weekly US employment data showed improvement from prior week at -2.5Kfor the 4-week average vs -11.25K last week. Although still negative, it did show improvement. Later US factory orders came in as expected at 1.4% with durable goods orders also little changed from the 1st release that was released just prior to the October 1 shutdown.The NAHB US November housing market index rose slightly to 38 from 37Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin spoke and said that the U.S. central bank is grappling with conflicting signals regarding its dual mandate of stable inflation and maximum employment. He expressed hope that upcoming economic data would provide clarity on the economy’s direction. Barkin noted that inflation remains above the target, but consumer resistance to price increases and productivity improvements are acting as mitigating factors against further acceleration. While job growth is down, the labor supply is also slowing, which has kept unemployment stable. Barkin described the current economic situation as “not a particularly comfortable place to be,” likening it to “docking a boat at night without a lighthouse” due to limited government data availability. He highlighted that credit card data and corporate earnings suggest healthy economic growth, yet some sectors and households are facing difficulties. Although the job market appears balanced overall, Barkin cited recent layoff announcements from major companies like Amazon, Verizon, and Target as reasons for caution, suggesting the labor market might be weaker than official numbers indicate. He emphasized that without compelling data, achieving a broad consensus among Fed officials on future policy actions, such as an interest rate cut at the upcoming December meeting, would be challenging.The US dollar is closing the day with mixed results. Looking at the major currencies, the USD percentage change is showed:EUR: +0.10%JPY +0.18%GBP +0.10%CHF +0.48%CAD -0.46%AUD -0.22%NZD +0.02%Looking at the US stock market, major indices fell for the 2nd consecutive day and the 4th time in 5 trading days S&P index -0.83%NASDAQ index -1.21%Dow industrial average -1.07%Nvidia will announce earnings after the close tomorrow. The stock fell -2.81% trading today. US yields moved lower with the two-year down -3.1 basis point at 3.578%. The 10 year was down -1.6 basis points at 4.117%.Crude oil moved higher by $0.62 or 1.05% at $60.54. Gold prices rose by $23.15 after yesterday’s fall to $4067.86. Bitcoin rose modestly by $477 to $92,579 after breaking $90,000 briefly today This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight USDCAD’s drop through the 61.8% retracement level is a red flag for bulls. With US stocks closing lower and a midday rally fizzling out, market sentiment is shaky. The upcoming PPI data on November 25 could add to the volatility, especially if it deviates from expectations. Traders should watch for how this data impacts the USD, as a weaker PPI could further pressure USDCAD. The current technical breakdown suggests a potential retest of lower support levels, which could trigger stop-loss orders and exacerbate selling pressure. On the flip side, if the PPI shows stronger inflation, the USD might regain some ground, leading to a potential bounce in USDCAD. Keep an eye on the broader market context, as Trump’s plummeting approval rating could also influence investor sentiment, particularly in risk-sensitive assets. In the short term, watch for USDCAD to test support levels around the recent lows, and be prepared for increased volatility as the PPI release approaches. 📮 Takeaway Watch USDCAD closely; a break below recent support could lead to further declines, especially ahead of the PPI data on November 25.

Trump hitting up the socials, posting on AI investment, and then going off on some tangent:Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the “HOTTEST” in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine. Some States are even trying to embed DEI ideology into AI models, producing “Woke AI” (Remember Black George Washington?). We MUST have one Federal Standard instead of a patchwork of 50 State Regulatory Regimes. We can do this in a way that protects children AND prevents censorship! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s comments on AI investment could sway market sentiment, especially in tech stocks. His assertion that AI is fueling U.S. economic growth highlights a key narrative for traders focusing on technology sectors. If investors believe that AI will drive significant returns, we might see a surge in related stocks, particularly those in the software and hardware spaces. However, his warning about overregulation raises a red flag—if states impose heavy restrictions, it could stifle innovation and growth. Traders should keep an eye on tech indices and specific stocks like NVIDIA or Microsoft, which are heavily invested in AI. Watch for volatility in these stocks as market participants react to regulatory news or further comments from Trump. On the flip side, if states do move forward with stringent regulations, it could create a buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on a potential dip in tech stocks. Keep an eye on the upcoming earnings reports and any regulatory announcements that could impact the market’s perception of AI investments. 📮 Takeaway Monitor tech stocks like NVIDIA and Microsoft closely; regulatory news could trigger significant price swings in the coming weeks.

Bank of America’s November global fund manager survey shows most investors expect the euro to end 2026 stronger but still within familiar territory. Nearly half (48%) see EUR/USD finishing in a $1.10–$1.20 range, roughly in line with today’s 1.1587 level. Another 30% expect a push higher into the $1.20–$1.30 band. Very few investors foresee a break of the extremes: just 2% expect sub-$1.00 levels and 2% see a rally beyond $1.30.Views on valuation have moderated. Forty-five percent say the US dollar is overvalued, down from 50% in October, while the share viewing the euro as undervalued has fallen to 13% from 17% last month. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Investors are betting on a stronger euro by 2026, and here’s why that matters now: With nearly half of fund managers expecting the EUR/USD to settle between $1.10 and $1.20, this sentiment suggests a stable outlook for the euro against the dollar. Given the current level of 1.1587, traders should consider this range as a potential trading zone. If the euro strengthens as anticipated, it could impact related assets like European equities and commodities priced in euros. Additionally, the 30% of respondents predicting a rise to $1.20–$1.30 indicates a bullish sentiment that could trigger upward momentum if key economic indicators, such as inflation or interest rate changes, align favorably. However, it’s worth noting that such optimism could be overextended if geopolitical tensions or economic downturns arise, leading to volatility in the forex market. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases and central bank announcements that could influence the euro’s trajectory. Watch for any shifts in sentiment that could push the EUR/USD towards these anticipated levels, especially around key economic reports or ECB meetings. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the EUR/USD closely; a break above 1.20 could signal a stronger bullish trend, while a drop below 1.10 may indicate a reversal.

The White House announced a series of major agreements between the United States and Saudi Arabia, marking a significant expansion in defense, trade, technology and strategic cooperation. Officials said both countries have committed to intensifying their engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, signalling renewed momentum in the bilateral economic relationship.Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American-made tanks, part of a broader defense package he approved that also includes future deliveries of F-35 fighter jets. The administration framed the agreements as strengthening U.S. industrial capacity while deepening security ties with Riyadh.Beyond defense, both governments highlighted several strategic achievements, including a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, new progress on critical minerals collaboration, and the signing of a landmark memorandum of understanding on artificial intelligence. The AI pact is aimed at expanding joint research, commercial development, and secure deployment frameworks between the two countries.Together, the agreements underscore a broadening U.S.–Saudi partnership across military, economic and technological domains. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The U.S.-Saudi agreements could shift market dynamics, especially in energy and defense sectors. For traders, this is crucial as it may impact oil prices and defense stocks. Renewed trade momentum often leads to increased demand for commodities, which could push crude oil prices higher. Watch for any immediate reactions in the energy sector, particularly if Brent crude breaks above key resistance levels. Additionally, defense contractors might see a surge in stock prices as government spending increases. However, keep an eye on geopolitical tensions that could arise from these agreements, as they might introduce volatility. The broader implications could ripple through global markets, affecting currencies tied to oil, like the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone. As the situation develops, monitor trade volumes and sentiment indicators to gauge market reactions effectively. 📮 Takeaway Watch for potential oil price increases and defense stock surges as U.S.-Saudi agreements unfold, especially if Brent crude breaks key resistance levels.

Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries softened in September as overseas investors trimmed their holdings for the first time in six months, newly released Treasury Department data show. The figures were delayed by the federal government’s 43-day shutdown, with the October report now slated for 18 December.Overall foreign Treasury holdings slipped to $9.249 trillion in September, down slightly from August but still 5.5% higher than a year earlier. The headline trend masked notable divergences among major holders.Japan, the largest overseas creditor to Washington, continued to ramp up its buying. Its holdings rose to $1.189 trillion, the highest since August 2022, and marked a ninth straight month of accumulation.China, by contrast, continued its slow multi-year reduction, with holdings edging down to $700.5 billion. Analysts attribute the decline to both strategic diversification away from the U.S. dollar and Beijing’s need to support the yuan amid weaker export inflows and a slower domestic economy. China remains the third-largest holder of Treasuries, behind the U.K.The United Kingdom also trimmed its exposure, cutting its holdings to $865 billion from just over $904 billion in August.On a transactions basis, foreign buying of Treasuries cooled sharply to $25.5 billion, less than half the August figure and well below May’s large $147 billion inflow, the biggest since 2022.However, foreign appetite for U.S. risk assets strengthened elsewhere: overseas investors bought $132.9 billion in U.S. equities, a sharp turnaround from July’s equity outflows.Despite softer Treasury demand, the U.S. still recorded net capital inflows of $190.1 billion, modestly above August, reinforcing ongoing external demand for U.S. assets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is waning, and here’s why that matters: The recent dip in overseas holdings signals a potential shift in market sentiment, especially as the October report is delayed until December 18. This could indicate that foreign investors are losing confidence in U.S. debt, possibly due to rising interest rates or geopolitical tensions. For traders, this trend could affect not just Treasuries but also the broader bond market and even equities, as reduced demand may lead to higher yields, impacting borrowing costs across the board. Look for key technical levels in the 10-year Treasury yield; if it breaks above recent highs, it could trigger a sell-off in riskier assets. Additionally, keep an eye on the dollar’s strength, as a weaker dollar could further deter foreign investment in Treasuries. The flip side? If domestic demand holds strong, it might counterbalance foreign selling, but the risk of volatility remains high as we approach the delayed report date. 📮 Takeaway Watch the 10-year Treasury yield closely; a breakout above recent highs could signal broader market volatility and impact risk assets significantly.

Deutsche Bank says gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier remains intact, even as its traditional negative correlation with risk assets has become less reliable in recent years. In a new note, the bank argues that official-sector buying, not financial-market positioning, continues to be the dominant force supporting bullion prices.Analysts expect central banks and reserve managers to keep stepping in on bouts of weakness, reinforcing a structural floor under the market. By contrast, ETF investors appear less inclined to buy dips while realised volatility stays elevated, limiting the responsiveness of retail and institutional flow-driven demand.Deutsche Bank maintains that sustained official-sector accumulation is the key driver behind gold’s persistent outperformance relative to fair-value models. With central-bank buying expected to remain strong, the bank keeps a strategically bullish stance and sees upside risks to its 2026 average price forecast of US$4,000/oz. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s status as a safe haven is still relevant, but here’s the catch: it’s not behaving like it used to. Deutsche Bank’s latest note highlights that while gold has historically moved inversely to risk assets, that correlation is weakening. This shift is crucial for traders who rely on gold as a hedge against market volatility. The emphasis on official-sector buying suggests that institutional demand is propping up prices, which could lead to a more stable gold market in the short term. However, if financial-market positioning becomes more dominant, we could see increased volatility in gold prices. Traders should keep an eye on key levels—if gold can hold above its recent support, it might signal a buying opportunity. Watch for any shifts in central bank policies or economic indicators that could impact risk sentiment. The real story is whether gold can reclaim its traditional role as a hedge or if it will continue to be influenced by institutional buying patterns. 📮 Takeaway Monitor gold’s support levels closely; if it holds, it could present a buying opportunity amid shifting market dynamics.

President Trump signalled he has likely settled on his preferred candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, telling reporters in the Oval Office, “I think I already know my choice,” though he declined to say who it is.The Wall Street Journal with the snippet. Adding:Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been conducting interviews with contenders to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends next year. Bessent told Trump that he will soon meet the finalists for the role. Those in the running include National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh.-Separately, Fox ‘news’ cites Bessent saying trump might name the new Fed Chair prior to Christmas. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s hint at a Fed chair pick is a game changer for markets, especially with interest rates in focus. With the Fed’s next moves under scrutiny, traders should brace for volatility. If Trump’s choice aligns with a more dovish stance, we could see a rally in equities and a potential dip in the dollar. Conversely, a hawkish pick might trigger sell-offs in risk assets and push yields higher. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 and the DXY index for immediate reactions. The uncertainty around the Fed’s direction adds layers of complexity to trading strategies, particularly for those in forex and equities. Here’s the kicker: mainstream coverage often overlooks how political signals can sway market sentiment. If Trump’s candidate is perceived as pro-growth, expect a bullish sentiment shift. Watch for key levels in the S&P 500 around recent highs, as a break could signal a strong upward trend. The next few weeks will be crucial as we await the official announcement, so stay alert for any shifts in market sentiment leading up to that. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the S&P 500 and DXY index closely; Trump’s Fed chair pick could shift market sentiment significantly in the coming weeks.

Some positive info for Japan’s economy. Admittedly from a couple of months back:Japan Core Machinery Orders for September 2025 +11.6% y/y expected +5.4%, prior +1.6%+4.2% m/mexpected +2.0%, prior -0.9%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Japan’s core machinery orders jumped 11.6% year-over-year, and here’s why that matters now: This surge indicates robust investment sentiment, which could bolster the yen and impact global markets. A stronger Japanese economy often leads to increased demand for exports, particularly in tech and automotive sectors, which are crucial for Japan. Traders should watch for potential yen appreciation against the dollar, especially if this trend continues. The recent data also suggests that the Bank of Japan might reconsider its ultra-loose monetary policy sooner than expected, which could lead to volatility in forex pairs involving the yen. But don’t overlook the flip side: if this growth is seen as a one-off spike rather than a sustained trend, it could lead to disappointment and a quick reversal. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic indicators for further confirmation. For now, monitor the USD/JPY pair closely, especially around key resistance levels, as any signs of yen strength could signal a shift in trading strategies. 📮 Takeaway Watch the USD/JPY pair closely; a sustained yen appreciation could shift trading strategies, especially if upcoming economic indicators confirm this growth trend.

The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, moved into slightly positive territory in October, lifting to +0.35% in October from +0.10% in September. WPAC comments:Leading Index growth rate lifts to 0.35%, moving into slightly positive territory Increase marks a step-up from around-trend readings over past six months Recent surge in consumer expectations played a big role This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index just turned positive, and here’s why that matters: A rise to +0.35% from +0.10% signals a potential uptick in economic activity over the next few months. For traders, this could mean a shift in sentiment towards riskier assets, particularly in equities and commodities. If this trend continues, we might see a stronger Australian dollar as investors anticipate better economic conditions. Keep an eye on the AUD/USD pair; a sustained rally could push it above key resistance levels. However, don’t overlook the flip side—this positive growth could also lead to tighter monetary policy if inflationary pressures build. Traders should monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance closely. If they signal a shift towards rate hikes, it could dampen the current bullish sentiment. Watch for any significant moves in the index over the coming months, as sustained growth could lead to broader market implications, especially in sectors sensitive to economic cycles. 📮 Takeaway Watch the AUD/USD closely; a sustained rise in the Leading Index could push it above key resistance levels, signaling a bullish trend.