Trump said he’s started Fed chair interviews but that “I think we already know the choice for Fed chair”.With that, he also said they have some surprising names for Fed chair and “we may go the standard way”.That last detail is good news if you like stability. Who would that mean though? Waller? He certainly made a strong case yesterday.The five names on the short list are:Fed Governors Christopher Waller Fed Gov Michelle BowmanNational Economic Council Director Kevin Hassettformer Fed Governor Kevin WarshBlackRock executive Rick RiederThe ‘standard way’ would be an insider, right? So that would rule out everyone but Bowman and Waller. Though you could argue Warsh and maybe Hassett would qualify. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s comments on Fed chair interviews could signal a shift in monetary policy direction, and here’s why that matters: If the market perceives that a familiar face will lead the Fed, it might stabilize interest rate expectations, which is crucial for traders in both the forex and crypto markets. Stability in leadership often translates to predictability in monetary policy, which can influence everything from the dollar’s strength to crypto valuations. Traders should keep an eye on how this news affects the U.S. dollar index and interest rate futures, especially if any surprising names emerge that could disrupt the status quo. The market’s reaction could provide insight into broader economic sentiment, especially as we approach key economic indicators like inflation reports and employment data. But don’t overlook the potential for volatility if unexpected candidates are named. If Trump leans towards a more hawkish or dovish choice, it could lead to significant shifts in market sentiment. Watch for any immediate reactions in the forex pairs, particularly USD/EUR and USD/JPY, as well as crypto assets that often correlate with dollar strength. The next few weeks will be critical as traders digest these developments and adjust their positions accordingly. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on the U.S. dollar index and interest rate futures for volatility as Fed chair candidates are revealed; unexpected names could shake up the market.

The S&P 500 today touched the lowest since October 15 but has embarked on a strong turnaround. From the low of 6659, it’s climbed to 6655, a nearly 100 point rebound. Despite that, the index is still down 15 points, or 0.2%.Three things may have been catalysts:Google releasing Gemini 3 and its looks impressiveMeta winning the antitrust case around Instagram and WhatsappTrump saying that China is buying US farm goods on scheduleThere is certainly some angst about Nvidia earnings tomorrow but shares have trimmed the decline to 1.2% and held the November low.Notable movers:AMZN -3.6%MSFT -2.9%V -1.6%MA -1.8%UNH -2.5%HD -4.6% after earningsAll of them are off the lowsI think it’s also notable that the Russell 2000 is in positive territory as it looks like there is rotation away from Mag7 (ex GOOG) and into other names. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The S&P 500’s bounce from a low of 6659 to 6655 signals potential volatility ahead. This rebound, despite still being down 0.2%, suggests traders are reacting to news like Google’s Gemini 3 release. Such tech developments can shift market sentiment quickly, especially in a climate where investors are skittish. The index’s recent low marks a critical support level; if it holds, we might see a further rally. However, if it breaks down again, expect heightened selling pressure. Keep an eye on related tech stocks, as their performance could influence the broader index. Also, watch for any shifts in trading volume around these levels, as increased activity could signal stronger trends. Here’s the thing: while the index is showing resilience, the overall market sentiment remains fragile. A close below 6650 could trigger more aggressive selling, while a sustained move above 6700 might attract bullish momentum. Monitor these levels closely for actionable insights. 📮 Takeaway Watch the S&P 500 closely; a close below 6650 could lead to increased selling pressure, while a move above 6700 may signal bullish momentum.

Maybe the market was more anxious about an election in Canada than we thought?It’s tough to pin down why the loonie is such a standout performer today. It’s easily the strongest G10 performer today up 0.6%, doubling the Australian dollar’s gain.It’s not a huge move but it drops the US dollar to the lowest level against the loonie since October 30. That’s the day after the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada both cut rates. Where they differed is that the BOC shifted strongly to the sidelines, a move underscored by yesterday’s CPI.As for news flow today, it’s not great for the loonie. Risk assets are down and the US dollar is higher against the euro and yen. Fed Governor Waller was very dovish late yesterday and he’s a good bet to be Fed chair so that may be weighing on the dollar. For Canada, today’s housing starts numbers were poor.A tailwind for the loonie is the gain in gold (+0.6%) and oil (+1.1%) but those are relatively small moves. On net, this looks like a flow driven move but it could also be a sign of improving risk appetite. The chart looks comfortably in the late-Oct/early-Nov range but still with a bias higher. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Canadian dollar’s unexpected strength against the G10 is raising eyebrows, and here’s why it matters: a 0.6% gain could signal underlying economic confidence or pre-election positioning. Traders should consider how this performance might affect correlated assets, particularly commodities like oil, where CAD often moves in tandem due to Canada’s resource-heavy economy. If the loonie continues to strengthen, it could pressure USD/CAD below key support levels, potentially triggering a wave of selling in USD pairs. Watch for any shifts in Canadian economic data or election outcomes that could amplify this trend. But don’t overlook the flip side; if the loonie’s rise is merely a short-term reaction, we could see a quick reversal. Keep an eye on the 0.46 support level for CAD, as a breach could lead to a rapid pullback. The next few days will be crucial for gauging whether this strength is sustainable or just a blip. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the CAD’s performance closely; a sustained move above 0.46 could signal further strength against the USD, impacting related forex pairs.

The USDCAD has continued it’s move to the downside (see earlier post here), and in the process moved below the 1.4000 level, the 61.8% retracement level I.39837, and into a swing area between 1.3968 and 1.3975 where buyers have now stepped in. Is the low in?In the video above I take a look at the technicals driving this currency pair and what would now turned the bias back around? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USDCAD’s drop below 1.4000 signals potential bearish momentum, but buyers are stepping in at key levels. With the pair now trading in a swing area between 1.3968 and 1.3975, traders should watch for a potential reversal. The 61.8% retracement level at 1.39837 is crucial; if it holds, we might see a bounce back. However, if sellers regain control and push the price lower, the next support could be tested, leading to further downside. Keep an eye on the daily chart for confirmation of any bullish reversal patterns or continued bearish pressure. The market’s reaction to this zone will be telling, especially with broader economic indicators influencing CAD strength against the USD. If the low is confirmed, it could set up a short-term buying opportunity, but risk management is key given the volatility around these levels. 📮 Takeaway Watch the 1.39837 level closely; a bounce here could signal a reversal, while a break below 1.3968 may lead to further declines.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows:Trump approval rating falls 38% which is the lowest since returning to the White House26% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of cost-of-living70% say that government is hiding Epstein client info.Pres. Trump is meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince and an ABC reporter first asked about the Trump families ties to Saudi Arabia, and then the Crown Prince’s involvement in the murder of the American journalist Jamal Khashoggi and followed that up with an Epstein file question. The exchange was not pretty. Meanwhile, the House overwhelmingly voted to release more Epstein investigation files, and send that bill to the Senate. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s approval rating has hit a new low at 38%, and this matters for traders because political instability can lead to market volatility. With 70% of Americans believing the government is withholding information, sentiment is shaky, which could influence consumer spending and economic forecasts. As Trump meets with the Saudi Crown Prince, any developments could impact oil prices and related markets, especially if discussions hint at changes in production or trade agreements. Traders should keep an eye on how these political dynamics play out, particularly in the energy sector. If oil prices react negatively to any perceived instability, it could create ripple effects across commodities and equities. Additionally, watch for any shifts in market sentiment as the election cycle heats up; political news often leads to knee-jerk reactions in the markets. A key level to monitor would be the S&P 500’s response to these developments, especially if it approaches significant support or resistance levels in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch for S&P 500 reactions as Trump’s approval rating drops; political instability could lead to increased market volatility, especially in energy sectors.

Looking at the rest of the data for this week:Wednesday, November 19 8:30 AM US International trade in goods and services. Estimate -$61.3 billion versus -$78.3 billionThursday, November 20 8:30 AM ET Nonfarm payroll estimate 55K. Unemployment rate estimate 4.3%8:30 AM ET Initial jobs claims10 AM ET. Existing home sales. Estimate 4.08 million versus 4.06 million last month10 AM ET Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index estimate 1.0 versus -12.8 previouslyFriday, November 21 8:30 AM US real earnings9:45 AM ET Flash Manufacturing PMI (9:45am): Estimate 52.0, Last 52.59:45 AM ET Flash Services PMI (9:45am): Estimate 54.6, Last 54.810 AM ET Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (10:00am): Estimate 50.6, Last 50.310 AM ET Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (10:00am): Estimate 4.7%, Last 4.7% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The upcoming economic data releases this week could shake up market sentiment significantly. On Wednesday, the US International Trade in Goods and Services report is expected to show a narrower deficit of -$61.3 billion, which could indicate improving trade dynamics. If this figure comes in better than expected, it might bolster the dollar and impact forex pairs, particularly USD/JPY and EUR/USD. Then on Thursday, the Nonfarm Payroll report is crucial; a print of 55K jobs could signal a slowing labor market, which might lead to dovish sentiment from the Fed. Traders should keep an eye on the unemployment rate, projected at 4.3%, as any deviation could shift expectations for future rate hikes. Existing home sales data will also provide insights into consumer confidence and economic health. Overall, volatility is likely, so watch for reactions in both forex and equities markets as these numbers roll out, especially around the 8:30 AM ET releases on both days. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the US International Trade and Nonfarm Payroll reports this week; deviations from estimates could trigger significant market moves.

None of this is likely to move markets around too much upon release. The wages data from Australia will be of interest to the RBA. Officials at the Bank have realised that inflation is sticky high, an acceleration in wages beyond the Q2 result and/or beyoined estiamtes will be troublesome for them. This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

The UK Times (gated) with the report that UK Chancellor Reeves is considering measures to shield small businesses and the self employed from tax rises.Says the piece (in brief):Insiders believe the budget will again include some targeted protection for small firmsmeasures expected on business rates and potentially the employment allowancelast year … a move … carved more than a million smaller employers out from the rise in national insurance contributions, and the Federation for Small Businesses (FSB) is lobbying for it to be uprated in line with the national living wage to preserve its value This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Chancellor Reeves’ potential measures to protect small businesses could shift market sentiment significantly. If the budget includes targeted protections, it might bolster investor confidence in the UK economy, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on small firms. This could lead to a rally in UK equities, especially in the small-cap space, as traders anticipate increased spending and stability. Watch for how this news impacts the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices, as they could react positively if the measures are perceived as sufficient. On the flip side, if the measures fall short or are delayed, we could see a sharp pullback in market sentiment, particularly among retail investors who are already wary of economic conditions. Keep an eye on the upcoming budget announcement and any related economic indicators, such as employment rates and consumer spending, as they will provide context for the market’s reaction. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the upcoming UK budget announcement closely; positive measures for small businesses could boost UK equities, particularly in the small-cap sector.

The major stock indices are closing lower on the day after stalling during a midday rally. Each of the 3 major indices stayed in in negative territory for the entire day. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -498.50 points or -1.07% at 46091.74. At session highs, the index was still down -207.32 pointsS&P index fell -55.09 point or -0.83% at 6617.32. At session highs the index was still down -5.70 points.NASDAQ index fell -275.23 points or -1.21% at 22432.85. At session highs the index was down -65.06 points.The good news is that although the price closed well off its highs for the day, they also closed well off the lows. At session lows: Dow industrial average was down -676 points. The S&P index was down -98.09 pointsNASDAQ index was down -476.93 pointsNvidia will announce their earnings after the close tomorrow. Shares fell $-5.24 or -2.81% to $181.37.Other losers today included:Home Depot: −6.00%Western Digital: −5.94%Micron: −5.56%Amazon.com: −4.43%AMD: −4.31%Box Inc: −3.71%CrowdStrike Holdings: −3.04%Arm: −2.97%SoFi Technologies: −2.96%Deutsche Bank AG: −2.95%Lam Research: −2.87%NVIDIA: −2.80%Microsoft: −2.70%Cadence Design: −2.60%Boston Scientific: −2.50%IBM: −2.42%Palantir: −2.29%Fortinet: −2.17%Block: −2.12% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Dow’s drop of over 498 points signals a troubling trend for traders: market sentiment is shifting. With the index closing at 46091.74, the consistent negative territory throughout the day suggests that bullish momentum is faltering. This could be a reaction to rising interest rates or inflation fears, which often lead to increased volatility in equities. Traders should watch for potential support levels around 45800, as a breach could trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, the broader market context indicates that sectors like tech and consumer discretionary might face headwinds, impacting correlated assets like ETFs tracking these indices. But here’s the flip side: if the market finds support and rebounds, it could present a buying opportunity for swing traders looking to capitalize on a potential reversal. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases, as they could provide the catalyst needed for a shift in sentiment. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether this is a temporary pullback or the start of a more significant downturn. 📮 Takeaway Watch the Dow’s support at 45800; a break could lead to increased selling pressure, while a bounce might offer buying opportunities for swing traders.

Via oilprice.com:–Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude -0.6 mn barrelsDistillates -1.2 mn bblsGasoline -0.2 mn—This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. Shut down permitting.The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agenciesWhereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Oil inventory data is shifting, and here’s why traders should pay attention: The recent API report indicates a headline crude draw of 0.6 million barrels, alongside notable declines in distillates and gasoline. This could signal tightening supply, especially ahead of the official EIA report due Wednesday. For traders, this means potential volatility in oil prices, especially if the EIA confirms similar trends. If crude prices react to a larger-than-expected draw, we might see a bullish trend that could ripple through correlated assets like energy stocks or ETFs. Keep an eye on the $140 level for SOL; a breakout could coincide with rising oil prices, impacting broader market sentiment. However, it’s worth questioning whether this drawdown is a temporary blip or part of a longer-term trend. If demand remains weak, any bullish sentiment could quickly reverse. Watch for reactions from institutional players, as they often set the tone in energy markets. The immediate focus should be on the EIA report and how it aligns with API’s findings, as this will dictate short-term trading strategies. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the EIA report on Wednesday; a significant draw could push SOL above $140, impacting energy stocks and overall market sentiment.