Fundamental OverviewThe USD performance this week has been negative despite the decreasing December rate cut odds. We’ve seen also other markets behaving in a strange way, so it’s hard to pinpoint what is really driving the markets at the moment.The focus now is of course on the Fed and the US data ahead of the December FOMC meeting. The market pricing is now showing a 50/50 chance of a cut in December, so the data will have the final say. I don’t think the September NFP expected to be released next week is going to matter much if it’s soft given that it’s old data, but a strong report might be taken as meaningful because the market could think that conditions were already getting better in September before the two rate cuts. Therefore, I think the November NFP is going to have the final say, which will hopefully get released just before the FOMC meeting in December (we won’t get the November CPI in time). On the JPY side, nothing has changed. The currency has been weakening since the last BoJ policy decision where the central bank left interest rates unchanged as expected with again two dissenters voting for a hike. There were no surprises but Governor Ueda focusing on spring wage negotiations suggested that the next hike could be delayed to January or even March 2026. We got some verbal interventions recently from the Japanese Finance Minister near the 155.00 handle. This is generally just short-term stuff that provides pullbacks for traders as long as the conditions for more yen weakness persist. But it shows that the 155.00 level is where the Japanese officials start to draw a line. USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY probed a little above the key 154.80 level but got rejected from the 155.00 handle. We can expect the sellers to continue to step in around these levels with a defined risk above the recent high to position for a drop into the 151.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 158.00 handle next. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into it, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 151.00 support.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the sellers will likely continue to pile in around the 154.80 level, while the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s weak performance amidst declining December rate cut odds raises questions about market sentiment. Traders need to consider how this disconnect could signal underlying volatility. With the Fed’s next moves under scrutiny, the market’s reaction could be influenced by economic indicators like inflation and employment data. If the USD continues to falter, we might see a shift towards riskier assets, impacting commodities and equities. Watch for any comments from Fed officials that could sway sentiment, especially if they hint at a more hawkish stance despite the current odds. On the flip side, if the USD stabilizes, it might attract safe-haven flows, particularly in times of geopolitical tension. Keep an eye on key support and resistance levels for the USD index, as these will guide trading strategies in the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Watch for Fed comments this week; any hawkish signals could shift USD dynamics and impact correlated assets like gold and equities.

This was already teased at the end of October here: Do keep a watchful eye on EUR/CHFAnd amid the more negative risk mood today, the dam is finally broken. Depending on your charts, this might mark the lowest in EUR/CHF since 2015 after the SNB decided to pull the rug on markets a decade ago. If not that, then this marks a fresh record low for the pair on the charts. To put simply regardless, we’re in unchartered waters more or less for EUR/CHF now.The drop in the pair this week marks the biggest weekly fall since April and is definitely more significant as we see price take out the 0.9200 level. That has been the sort of lower boundary in where price has tested the lows ever since August last year.As the heat turns up, the SNB doesn’t look like they’re interested in fighting their battle at this level. And if we do get a firm break here today, it’s tough to try and catch a falling knife until a turn in broader market sentiment.For now, the break isn’t a firm one yet but sellers are definitely looking to make a run for it. The daily/weekly close today will be very important in deciding if the declining momentum has more room to run.As for the fundamental push in the pair, it is one that has been taking shape for a while now with the SNB having already paused on rate cuts and not wanting to push the negative rates agenda. Meanwhile, the euro is still helped slightly by a more resilient economy and the ECB also pausing but in all likelihood still set to resume rate cuts at some point. Of course, the negative risk backdrop doesn’t help. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The EUR/CHF has hit lows not seen since 2015, and here’s why that matters: With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) pulling support, traders need to reassess their positions. This move signals a shift in monetary policy that could lead to increased volatility in the forex market. The negative risk sentiment today adds pressure, and if the EUR/CHF continues to decline, it could trigger stop-loss orders and further selling. Watch for key support levels around the 1.05 mark; a break below could lead to a cascade effect, impacting not just EUR/CHF but also correlated pairs like EUR/USD and CHF/JPY. On the flip side, if the pair finds support and bounces back, it could present a buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on a potential reversal. Keep an eye on economic indicators from both the Eurozone and Switzerland, as they could provide clues on future movements. Immediate focus should be on the daily charts for any signs of stabilization or further breakdown. 📮 Takeaway Watch for EUR/CHF to hold above 1.05; a break below could trigger significant selling pressure.

No rest for the wicked. The BOJ has come out to clarify that Uchida is still expected to attend next month’s monetary policy meeting on 18-19 December. That after the news broke that he has been hospitalised and will work remotely for “several weeks” in order to treat his leukemia. Wishing Uchida the best of recoveries and in his battle against the big C! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Uchida’s health situation adds uncertainty to the BOJ’s upcoming policy meeting, and here’s why that’s crucial for traders: Market participants are already on edge about potential shifts in Japan’s monetary policy, especially with inflation pressures mounting. Uchida’s remote attendance could signal a lack of decisive leadership during a critical time, impacting the yen and Japanese equities. Traders should keep an eye on the USD/JPY pair, as any signs of instability could lead to increased volatility. If the BOJ fails to provide clear guidance, expect heightened reactions from both retail and institutional investors, potentially pushing the yen to test key support levels. On the flip side, this situation could present a buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on short-term volatility. If Uchida’s remote participation leads to a dovish stance, the yen might weaken further, creating a chance for traders to enter positions at favorable rates. Watch for any comments from other BOJ officials leading up to the meeting, as these could provide clues on the central bank’s direction and influence market sentiment significantly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD/JPY pair closely ahead of the BOJ meeting on December 18-19 for potential volatility and trading opportunities based on Uchida’s health impact.

Alex Wickham, political editor for Bloomberg UK, posted on his X account that “Rachel Reeves received an improved fiscal forecast from her budget watchdog putting the fiscal hole at £20 billion, leading her to drop plans to raise income tax rates according to people familiar with the matter”. “The latest update from the Office for Budget Responsibility moved in a significantly better direction due to the strength of receipts and stronger wage performance. As well as filling the £20 billion gap, Reeves is still expected to deliver headroom against her fiscal rules of between £15 billion and £20 billion”. “An expected productivity downgrade from the OBR has been partially countered, the people said. Reeves’ strategy for budget has not changed and major tax rises are still expected to fill the remaining hole in the public finances, they added. Reeves will likely lower income tax thresholds at the budget and raise significant taxes from salary sacrifice schemes, they said. The chancellor was prepared to break Labour’s election promise not to raise income tax rates if necessary to fill the hole, but the better fiscal forecast now meant that was not necessary, the people said”. LSEG data shows that traders trimmed their BoE rate cut bets from 64 bps yesterday to 58 bps now. The probabilities for a December cut are still around 80%, but we still have two UK CPI reports and one employment report before the next BoE meeting. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The UK’s fiscal forecast just got a boost, and here’s why that matters: a £20 billion gap means no income tax hikes, which could influence market sentiment. For traders, this news could shift focus towards UK equities and the pound. With Reeves dropping tax increase plans, consumer spending might see a lift, positively impacting sectors like retail and services. Watch for potential bullish momentum in FTSE 100 stocks as this news settles. However, keep an eye on the broader economic indicators; if inflation remains stubborn, the Bank of England might still have to act, which could create volatility. The flip side? If the forecast changes again or if fiscal measures don’t stimulate growth as expected, we could see a quick reversal. In the short term, monitor the GBP/USD pair for reactions, especially if it breaks resistance levels. A close above recent highs could signal further strength, while a failure to hold could lead to a pullback. Timing is crucial here—stay alert for any economic data releases that could impact sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Watch GBP/USD closely; a break above recent highs could signal bullish momentum, while any negative shifts in fiscal forecasts could lead to volatility.

A private survey data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a headline crude-oil inventory build that came in “less than expected,” according to Eamonn Sheridan. While expectations had been for a +2 million-barrel rise in crude, the API surveyed data implied a smaller build. The official government report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due soon and may differ; the API survey is seen as less comprehensive. At the same time, analysts at TradingView note that this week may be “a key week for oil.” The backdrop: sluggish growth in China, high U.S. crude inventories (with the EIA showing a +5.2 million-barrel rise in reserves to 421.2 million) and a firm U.S. dollar — all weighing on oil’s ability to rally. Also cited: OPEC+’s decision to suspend production growth into early 2026, which hasn’t inspired much optimism in the market.Putting it all together: The oil market has seen a modest uptick, but it remains under pressure from macro and supply-side headwinds. Even though the private survey indicates a smaller than expected crude build (a potentially bullish sign), high inventories, weak demand outlooks (especially China) and a strong dollar are limiting upside momentum. Traders will be watching the forthcoming official inventory data, OPEC+ forecasts and global demand signals closely.Light Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompassInstrument: Light Crude Oil Futures (CL, front month / CL1!) Current price (time of analysis): 59.49 Point of Control (POC) today: 59.50 Bearish below: 59.75 Bullish above: 60.00tradeCompass Summary MapBullish above: 60.00 Bearish below: 59.75 Primary bias: Short term bearish while price stays below 59.75 and near 59.50 POCKey bearish partial targets: 59.40, 59.28, 59.09, 58.81 Key bullish partial targets: 60.11, 60.30, 60.56, 61.22The oil market context and directional biasLight crude oil futures are currently trading around 59.49, almost pinned to today’s Point of Control at 59.50. Over roughly the last three hours, price has been rotating in a tight band between 59.40 and 59.60, which tells us the market is in price discovery around this value area rather than in a strong trend.The tradeCompass bearish threshold for today sits at 59.75. Since the current CL price is below 59.75, crude oil is in short term bearish territory for this tradeCompass map. That does not mean price cannot pop higher. It can certainly probe into 59.70 – 59.80 to run stops and test liquidity before deciding the next leg.The bullish threshold for today is anchored around the 60.00 round number. If CL can sustain trading above 60.00, then the long side becomes active and we switch to the bullish map. Until then, the bias is for short setups on decent retracements while price holds below 59.75.Bearish tradeCompass map for CL1! todayFor illustration, imagine a short side activation after a retracement higher. One example level would be around 59.68, which is still comfortably below the 59.75 bearish threshold.If CL fades from that zone, the tradeCompass bearish waypoints for partial profit taking are:59.40 First logical downside target, just above the November 12 VWAP close. This is a local magnet in the current rotation and a classic place for first partial profits on a short.59.28 Secondary target slightly below that VWAP zone. At this level, many traders willTake additional partial profitsCancel any still unfilled sell orders aboveMove their stop on the remaining position to breakeven (around entry)59.09 A deeper target aligned with liquidity pools from November 13 and not far from that day’s high. If sellers remain in control, this is a natural area for the market to check.58.81 Extended short side objective. This level lines up with prior liquidity pools from November 13 and even back to October 22. Reaching here would usually imply a stronger down leg rather than simple noise around today’s POC.Stop logic for the bearish side: tradeCompass does not dictate an exact stop, but it does define a clear boundary. For shorts that are valid while price remains below 59.75, a logical stop is set just above the bearish activation zone, with a modest buffer, and never beyond the opposite threshold at 60.00. If price decisively trades above 60.00 and holds, the short setup is considered invalid under this map.Bullish tradeCompass map once $60 on crude oil is reclaimedIf CL manages to recapture and sustain above 60.00, the mode flips. At that point, we treat 60.00 as the bullish activation level, but remain alert to fakeouts and stop hunts around such a round number. Traders should wait for some form of confirmation that price is holding above the level, not just spiking through it.Once the bullish mode is active, the tradeCompass upside waypoints for partial profits are:60.11 A quick first target for nimble long traders once 60.00 is cleared. It offers a tight initial partial to reduce risk on the trade if the breakout is shaky.60.30 Second target just under the November 10 Value Area High (VAH). This is a logical place to trim more size, since value from that prior day sits just overhead.60.56 A higher continuation target. Reaching this level would usually indicate that buyers are doing more than just a small stop run above 60.00.61.22 Swing traders can keep this as an extended target. It aligns with the November 11 VAH, which is a stronger reference for those looking beyond a single session.For long trades, the same stop philosophy applies in reverse. A typical trader will place the stop just below the bullish activation area, with a sensible buffer, and never below the opposite bearish threshold. If price slips back under 59.75 and holds there, the bullish thesis for this tradeCompass map is done.Educational corner, partial profits on a choppy market like oilCrude oil is a perfect example of why partial profit logic matters. CL can look like it is trending on news or headlines, then suddenly stall and revert inside a range around key levels such as POC, VAH, VAL, or prior VWAPs. If a trader always waits for the ultimate target with full size, a single sharp reversal can erase several hours of

Prior +0.1%GDP +1.4% vs +1.3% y/y prelimPrior +1.4%; revised to +1.5%There’s no change to the quarterly estimate as the euro area economy holds up in Q3 but stagflation fears are starting to creep in amid the economic situation in Germany. So, that’s the key risk as we look towards the turn of the year in Europe. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Stagflation fears are rising, and here’s why that matters for traders: The euro area’s economy is holding steady with a quarterly GDP growth of 1.5%, but the underlying concerns in Germany could shift market sentiment quickly. Traders should be wary of how these economic indicators might impact the euro against major currencies like the USD. If Germany’s economic situation worsens, we could see the euro weaken, especially if it breaks below key support levels. Keep an eye on the 1.05 level against the dollar; a breach could trigger further selling pressure. Moreover, the broader implications of stagflation could lead to increased volatility in commodities and equities, particularly in sectors sensitive to economic growth. If inflation persists alongside stagnant growth, central banks might adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate hikes, which could further complicate the trading landscape. Watch for any shifts in ECB rhetoric or economic forecasts that could signal a change in monetary policy direction. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the euro’s performance around the 1.05 level against the dollar, as a break could signal increased volatility amid rising stagflation fears.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD performance this week has been negative despite the decreasing December rate cut odds. We’ve seen also other markets behaving in a strange way, so it’s hard to pinpoint what is really driving the markets at the moment.The focus now is of course on the Fed and the US data ahead of the December FOMC meeting. The market pricing is now showing a 50/50 chance of a cut in December, so the data will have the final say. I don’t think the September NFP expected to be released next week is going to matter much if it’s soft given that it’s old data, but a strong report might be taken as meaningful because the market could think that conditions were already getting better in September before the two rate cuts. Therefore, I think the November NFP is going to have the final say, which will hopefully get released just before the FOMC meeting in December (we won’t get the November CPI in time). On the EUR side, nothing has changed fundamentally. The ECB decision didn’t offer anything new and kept everything unchanged. ECB policymakers continue to repeat that the current policy is appropriate and that they won’t respond to small or shot-term deviations from their 2% target. The recent Eurozone data has been supporting the central bank stance as PMIs showed a rebound in economic activity and core inflation remained at 2.4% Y/Y. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke above the major trendline and extended the gains into the 1.1650 level as buyers increased the bullish bets. The bullish momentum remains intact for now as we continue to wait for the key US data. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting new lows.EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break. The red lines define average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s recent downturn, despite lower December rate cut odds, signals underlying market tensions. Traders should be cautious as this disconnect hints at broader economic uncertainties. The Fed’s upcoming decisions will be pivotal, especially with inflation and employment data looming. If the USD continues to weaken, we might see a flight to safety in assets like gold or even a resurgence in crypto, which often thrives in such environments. Keep an eye on key levels for the USD index; a break below recent support could trigger further selling pressure. Watch for any Fed commentary that could shift sentiment, as it could lead to volatility across forex pairs and related markets. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD index closely; a break below key support levels could lead to increased volatility and shifts in asset flows.