US Dollar (USD) traded mixed this morning, with gains seen vs. low yielding major FX while losses were seen vs. risk-proxy FX, including AUD, KRW. DXY was last at 99.55 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s mixed performance today signals shifting market sentiment, and here’s why that matters: With the DXY hovering around 99.55, the dollar’s strength against low-yielding currencies suggests a flight to safety among traders, likely driven by recent economic data or geopolitical tensions. However, losses against risk-proxy currencies like the AUD and KRW indicate a growing appetite for riskier assets, which could be a sign of optimism in global markets. This divergence is crucial for day traders and swing traders to watch, as it can impact trading strategies significantly. If the DXY breaks below 99.50, it could trigger further selling pressure, while a rebound could attract buyers looking for a safer haven. Traders should also keep an eye on correlated assets, particularly commodities like gold and oil, which often react to dollar fluctuations. If the dollar weakens further, commodities could see upward momentum, presenting potential trading opportunities. Conversely, a stronger dollar could dampen commodity prices, so monitoring these relationships is key for informed trading decisions. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the DXY to hold above 99.50; a break could signal further weakness in the dollar and potential gains in riskier assets.

The Turkish central bank (CBT) has adjusted its year-end inflation forecast for 2025, once again, upward to 31%-33%, compared with the previous 25%-29%. This revision aligns with existing analyst consensus forecasts. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Turkey’s central bank just raised its inflation forecast, and here’s why that matters: An upward revision to 31%-33% for 2025 inflation signals persistent economic challenges. For traders, this could mean heightened volatility in the Turkish lira (TRY) as market participants react to the implications of sustained inflation. If inflation expectations remain elevated, the CBT might be pressured to adjust interest rates, which could further impact currency pairs involving the TRY. Keep an eye on the USD/TRY and EUR/TRY pairs, as they could see increased trading activity. But here’s the flip side: if the market starts to price in aggressive rate hikes, it could lead to a short-term strengthening of the lira as investors seek higher yields. Watch for key technical levels around recent highs and lows in these pairs, as they could provide entry or exit points. The next few weeks will be crucial as traders digest this news and its potential ripple effects across emerging markets. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD/TRY and EUR/TRY pairs closely; a shift in interest rate expectations could create trading opportunities around key technical levels.

USD/JPY jumped in early trade this morning, as demand for safe haven proxy faded in reaction to news that US government shutdown may be nearing an end. USD/JPY last seen at 154.17 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight USD/JPY’s rise to 154.17 signals shifting sentiment as fears of a US government shutdown ease. Traders should pay attention to how this impacts broader market dynamics, particularly in risk-sensitive assets. A potential resolution to the shutdown could lead to increased risk appetite, pushing USD/JPY higher. If the pair breaks above recent resistance levels, it could trigger further buying, especially from institutional players looking to capitalize on a more stable economic outlook. However, caution is warranted; if negotiations falter, we could see a swift reversal, with support levels around 153.50 coming into play. Keep an eye on US economic indicators this week, as they could provide additional context for USD strength or weakness. On the flip side, if the market overreacts to the shutdown news, we might see a pullback in USD/JPY, creating a buying opportunity for those looking to enter at lower levels. Watch for any developments in Congress that could impact this narrative. 📮 Takeaway Monitor USD/JPY for potential breakouts above 154.50, while keeping an eye on support around 153.50 if sentiment shifts.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 2% higher to near $4,080 during the European trading session on Monday. The yellow metal strengthens amid steady expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again in the December policy meeting. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s recent surge to nearly $4,080 is a direct response to shifting Fed rate expectations. With the market anticipating another interest rate cut in December, gold often becomes a safe haven, attracting both retail and institutional investors. This 2% increase signals a potential breakout, especially if it can maintain momentum above key resistance levels. Traders should keep an eye on the $4,100 mark, as a sustained move above this could trigger further buying interest. Conversely, if gold fails to hold these gains, a pullback could test support around $4,000, which would be critical for maintaining bullish sentiment. It’s also worth noting that this bullish sentiment in gold could have ripple effects on related assets like silver and mining stocks. If the Fed’s decision aligns with market expectations, we could see a broader rally in precious metals. However, traders should remain cautious of volatility, especially as we approach the December meeting, where any unexpected announcements could lead to sharp price movements. 📮 Takeaway Watch for gold to hold above $4,100 for continued bullish momentum; a drop below $4,000 could signal a reversal.

Developments over the weekend hint at a path to ending the US government shutdown. It seems the prospect of massive flight delays around Thanksgiving and the delay in food aid payments has prompted a group of moderate Democrats to back a proposed compromise bill in the Senate. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The potential end to the US government shutdown could shift market sentiment significantly. Traders should keep an eye on how this political maneuvering impacts consumer confidence and spending, especially as we approach the holiday season. If the compromise bill passes, it might alleviate concerns over economic slowdown, which could lead to a rally in consumer-driven sectors. Look for movements in the S&P 500 and related ETFs, as they often react to fiscal policy changes. However, there’s a flip side: if the bill fails, we could see increased volatility and a flight to safety in assets like gold or US Treasuries. Keep an eye on key economic indicators like retail sales and consumer sentiment reports in the coming weeks, as they could provide further insights into the market’s direction. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the Senate’s compromise bill vote; a successful passage could boost consumer stocks, while failure may trigger volatility in safe-haven assets.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades with caution against its major currency peers at the start of the week. The British currency faces slight selling pressure amid growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates at its December policy meeting. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Pound Sterling’s cautious trading signals a critical moment for GBP traders as rate cut expectations loom. With the Bank of England likely to cut interest rates in December, traders should brace for volatility. This potential shift could weaken the GBP further against major peers, especially if inflation data continues to disappoint. Watch for key support levels around recent lows, as a break could trigger more selling pressure. The market’s reaction to upcoming economic indicators will be crucial; if the data suggests a stronger case for rate cuts, expect GBP to struggle. On the flip side, if inflation surprises to the upside, it could provide a temporary boost. Keep an eye on correlated assets like UK bonds, which may react sharply to any hints from the BoE. Overall, the next few weeks will be pivotal for GBP positioning, so stay alert for any shifts in sentiment or data releases that could impact the outlook. 📮 Takeaway Monitor GBP closely as December rate cut expectations could lead to increased volatility; watch key support levels for potential breakouts.

EUR/HUF continues its steady decline, with the pair drifting toward the crucial 383/382 support zone at the base of its descending channel, Société Générale’s FX analysts note. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight EUR/HUF is nearing a critical support zone, and here’s why that matters: As the pair approaches the 383/382 level, traders need to keep an eye on this descending channel. A breakdown below this support could trigger a wave of selling, potentially leading to a sharper decline. On the flip side, if the pair finds support here, it could set up a bounce back, making this a pivotal moment for both day and swing traders. Monitoring volume and momentum indicators around this level will be key—if we see increased selling pressure, it might signal a shift in sentiment. Conversely, a strong rebound could attract buyers looking for a reversal. It’s also worth noting that this movement might influence related pairs, especially those with exposure to the Euro or Hungarian Forint. Keep an eye on economic data releases from the Eurozone or Hungary, as they could provide additional context for this price action. Watch for any signs of volatility as we approach this support level, as it could lead to significant trading opportunities. 📮 Takeaway Watch the EUR/HUF closely as it nears the 383/382 support zone; a break could signal further declines, while a bounce might attract buyers.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the USD/INR pair consolidating around 88.80. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD/INR pair holding steady at 88.80 signals a crucial moment for traders: stability could lead to a breakout or breakdown soon. With the Indian Rupee flat against the US Dollar, traders should be on the lookout for economic indicators that could shift this balance. Factors like inflation data or changes in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of India could impact the pair significantly. If the USD/INR breaks above 89.00, it might trigger bullish momentum, while a drop below 88.50 could signal a bearish trend. Keep an eye on related assets like Indian equities or commodities, as shifts in the currency can ripple through these markets. The real story is how external factors, like US economic performance, could influence this pair in the coming weeks. Watch for volatility as traders react to upcoming economic reports and geopolitical developments, which could create trading opportunities in both directions. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD/INR pair closely; a break above 89.00 could signal bullish momentum, while a drop below 88.50 may indicate a bearish trend.

Portugal Global Trade Balance dipped from previous €-8.622B to €-8.94B in September 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Portugal’s trade balance worsening to €-8.94B is a red flag for traders: This dip from €-8.622B signals increasing import pressures, which could weaken the euro in the short term. A deteriorating trade balance often leads to currency depreciation as it reflects a higher demand for foreign goods than domestic production. Traders should keep an eye on the euro against major pairs, especially the USD and GBP, as this could trigger volatility. If the euro breaks below key support levels, say around 1.05 against the dollar, we might see a more pronounced sell-off. On the flip side, this situation could present a buying opportunity for exporters who might benefit from a weaker euro. But, the broader economic implications, like inflationary pressures from increased imports, could weigh heavily on the European Central Bank’s decisions moving forward. Watch for upcoming economic indicators from Portugal and the Eurozone that could further influence market sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the euro closely; if it breaks below 1.05 against the USD, prepare for potential downside risks.

Over the weekend, Chinese inflation figures were published and showed a slight surprise on the upside. In this case, however, this should be seen as positive – because while the rest of the world is struggling with inflation that tends to be too high, China is still on the brink of deflation. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s unexpected inflation uptick could shift market sentiment, and here’s why: While global inflation remains a concern, China’s figures suggest a potential recovery, which might stabilize demand for commodities and risk assets. Traders should keep an eye on how this affects the yuan and related markets, especially if it leads to a shift in monetary policy. If inflation continues to rise, we could see the People’s Bank of China adjusting interest rates, impacting forex pairs like USD/CNY. But don’t overlook the flip side—if this inflation is merely a blip rather than a trend, it could lead to volatility in Chinese equities and commodities, especially if investors react too quickly. Watch for key levels in the yuan; a break above recent highs could signal a stronger yuan, while a drop could indicate renewed weakness. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases for further clarity on this situation. 📮 Takeaway Monitor USD/CNY closely; a break above key resistance could signal a stronger yuan, impacting commodity prices and risk assets.