September advance estimate +0.1%Prior was +0.2% (revised to +0.3%)Goods-producing industries declined 0.6% in AugustServices-producing industries edged down 0.1%Flight attendant strike behind a 1.7% decline in transportation and warehousingWholesale trade sector declined 1.2% in AugustMining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction contracted 0.7% in AugustThe utilities sector contracted 2.3% as worsening drought conditions hampered hydroelectric power generationRetail trade up 0.9%Full release This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The latest economic data shows a mixed bag, and here’s why that matters for traders: a mere 0.1% advance estimate for September signals potential stagnation in growth. With goods-producing industries down 0.6% in August and significant declines in sectors like transportation and warehousing, traders should be cautious. The 1.7% drop in transportation, largely due to the flight attendant strike, indicates labor issues could further disrupt supply chains. Additionally, the 1.2% decline in wholesale trade and contractions in mining and utilities suggest broader economic weakness. This could lead to volatility in related markets, particularly commodities and energy stocks, as traders reassess demand forecasts. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic indicators and any potential revisions to these estimates, as they could shift market sentiment. Watch for key support levels in commodities that might react to these trends, especially if the economic outlook worsens further. 📮 Takeaway Traders should monitor upcoming economic indicators closely, especially in commodities, as current data suggests potential economic weakness and volatility ahead.

Has concerns about high and potentially spreading inflationLabor market largely in balance, any stress likely due to structural change that small Fed rate cuts won’t addressFinancial conditions appear easy, nothing to suggest they’re particularly tightLower rates could hurt if Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation called into questionHe makes a compelling argument. Powell hinted that the December Fed meeting will be a real fight. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight Inflation fears are creeping back into the market, and here’s why that matters: traders need to watch for how this could influence Fed policy. With the labor market showing signs of balance, any stress might stem from structural changes rather than just monetary policy. If the Fed cuts rates without addressing inflation concerns, it could lead to a loss of credibility in their 2% inflation target. This is crucial for traders, as it could shift market sentiment and impact asset classes across the board. Keep an eye on financial conditions; if they remain easy, that could fuel further inflation worries. Watch for key economic indicators like CPI and PCE data in the coming weeks, as they could dictate the Fed’s next moves and influence market volatility. A failure to manage inflation expectations could lead to a sell-off in equities and a flight to safety in bonds or gold. Traders should be prepared for potential volatility, especially if inflation data surprises to the upside. The real story is how the Fed balances rate cuts with inflation control, so stay alert for any shifts in their messaging. 📮 Takeaway Watch for upcoming CPI and PCE data; any inflation surprises could shift market sentiment and impact Fed policy significantly.

The USD is mixed to little changed to start the US trading session. However, given the price action this week, the EURUSD is holding onto some key support. The USDJPY is making a break to the topside putting the buyers in firm control, and the GBPUSD is breaking to the downside, opening the door to more downside potential technically. What levels are key in defining risk, the bias and the targets for those three pairs? I will outline them in the video, so take a look and be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s mixed performance signals a pivotal moment for currency traders this week. With the EURUSD clinging to key support, traders should watch for any signs of a breakdown or bounce. A failure to hold this level could trigger a wave of selling, while a rebound might attract buyers looking for a short-term rally. Meanwhile, the USDJPY’s upward movement indicates strong bullish sentiment, suggesting that buyers are in control. This could lead to further gains if it breaks through resistance levels. The GBPUSD’s breakout adds another layer of complexity, potentially impacting correlated pairs. Traders should keep an eye on the 1.10 level for the EURUSD and the psychological 150 level for the USDJPY, as these could serve as critical points for decision-making. The real story here is the interplay between these pairs; a shift in one could ripple through the others. If the USD strengthens unexpectedly, it could lead to a broader sell-off in the Euro and Pound, so be prepared for volatility. 📮 Takeaway Watch the EURUSD at key support levels and the USDJPY around 150; shifts here could signal broader market moves.

The Miami Herald reports that the US is poised to strike military targets in Venezuela in escalation against Maduro regime.This isn’t a hit on narcotics operations but on military installations. This is tantamount to an undeclared war, though the US is saying that drug trafficker use the installations.Sources told the Herald that the targets — which could be struck by air in a matter of days or even hours — also aim to decapitate the cartel’s hierarchy. U.S. officials believe the cartel exports around 500 tons of cocaine yearly, split between Europe and the United States.Oil is climbing on the headlines but Venezuela is no longer a large exporter of oil, with exports around 700-900kbpd. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The potential US military action in Venezuela could significantly impact global markets, especially oil and commodities. Traders should be aware that military escalations often lead to volatility in energy prices, particularly crude oil, which has already been sensitive to geopolitical tensions. If the US strikes military targets, expect a spike in oil prices as supply concerns mount, especially if Venezuela’s production is disrupted. Additionally, this situation could ripple through related markets, including currencies tied to oil exports and emerging market assets. Keep an eye on the $80 per barrel level for Brent crude; a breach could trigger further buying. On the flip side, if the situation de-escalates or if the US fails to act decisively, we might see a quick pullback in oil prices, presenting a potential buying opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on short-term fluctuations. Watch for news updates and market reactions over the coming days, as sentiment can shift rapidly in response to developments. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Brent crude around the $80 level; any military action could push prices higher, while de-escalation might offer buying opportunities.

Logan is backing up Schmid.The KC Fed President Schmid loses his vote next year but he’s replaced by Logan, who is equally hawkish. She says she have voted to leave rates unchanged this week and would prefer to leave them unchanged in December.The market is still pricing in a 68% chance of a December rate cut but it’s going to be a fight.More from Logan:Labor market risks are to the downside but the labor market is roughly balanced and cooling slowlyFed could address labor quickly if neededInflation too highly and likely to exceed 2% ‘for too much longer’Alternative data provides visibilityBreakeven payroll growth has likely fallen to 30k per month This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The Fed’s hawkish stance is solidified with Logan’s support for Schmid, and here’s why that matters: With the market pricing in a 68% chance of a rate hike in December, traders need to pay close attention to upcoming economic data. Logan’s preference to keep rates unchanged signals a cautious approach, which could lead to volatility in both the forex and equity markets. If inflation data comes in stronger than expected, we might see a shift in sentiment, pushing that probability higher. This could impact the USD significantly, especially against major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Watch for key levels around 1.05 for EUR/USD and 1.25 for GBP/USD; breaks below these could indicate further dollar strength. But don’t overlook the flip side: if economic indicators show weakness, the Fed might reconsider its hawkish tone, leading to a potential reversal in market expectations. Keep an eye on the next CPI report and the Fed’s commentary for clues on future rate decisions. The immediate focus should be on how traders react to these developments in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the December rate hike probability closely; key levels to watch are 1.05 for EUR/USD and 1.25 for GBP/USD as potential breakout points.