Prior -9.8%This is not a market-moving report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article

Rate cuts by year-endFed: 17 bps (68% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)2026: 82 bpsECB: 1 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 12 bpsBoE: 8 bps (68% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 64 bpsBoC: 3 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 12 bpsRBA: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)2026: 25 bpsRBNZ: 21 bps (83% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 35 bpsSNB: 2 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 7 bpsRate hikes by year-endBoJ: 7 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)2026: 45 bps*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.The first notable change was seen in the RBA market pricing following the hot Australian quarterly CPI report. RBA Governor Bullock on Monday sounded hawkish but she added that she was open to change her mind in case the forecasts proved to be wrong and the data came out weaker than expected. They did prove to be wrong, but on the other side. In fact, the RBA forecasted a 0.6% increase in the quarterly Trimmed Mean CPI, but instead we got a 1.0% increase. That was even higher than RBA’s worst case scenario of 0.9%. The market of course scrapped the rate cut bets and it’s now seeing the next rate cut in June 2026 at the earliest. Next we got the Fed decision. The US central bank cut interest rates by 25 bps and announced an end to QT as widely expected, but the only thing that mattered was one line from Fed Chair Powell’s opening statement in the press conference. In fact, once he said “a December cut is not a foregone conclusion – far from it”, the market reacted immediately by scaling back the almost 100% probabilities of a cut in December. He repeated that line many times suggesting that there is indeed a strong chance that we could not see a rate cut in December, although the data will have the final say. Speaking of the data, he added that in case they don’t get the data due to the shutdown, they might as well not cut because they are “driving in a fog”. Lastly, we got the BoJ decision and although the central bank left everything unchanged with again two hawkish dissenters as expected, BoJ Governo Ueda in the press conference suggested that a rate hike this year might not happen at all as they want to see early momentum of spring wage negotiations. So, the next hike should be delayed to early next year either already in January or March 2026. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The Fed’s potential rate cut is looming large, and here’s why that matters: traders need to brace for volatility. With a 68% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, market sentiment is shifting. This could lead to increased liquidity, impacting not just equities but also forex pairs, particularly USD-based ones. If the Fed does cut rates, expect a weaker dollar, which could boost commodities and cryptocurrencies. On the flip side, the ECB and BoE show little movement, which might create a divergence in currency strength. Traders should keep an eye on the USD index, especially around key support levels, as a rate cut could trigger a significant sell-off. Watch for reactions in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, as they could provide trading opportunities based on the Fed’s decision. The next few weeks are crucial, so stay alert for any shifts in economic indicators leading up to the meeting. 📮 Takeaway Watch the USD index closely; a Fed rate cut could weaken the dollar, impacting forex pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD significantly.

UA Zensen, which consists of unions in Japan’s textile, retail and some other industries announced a plan to demand a 6% wage increase in next year’s “shunto” spring wage negotiations. BoJ Governor Ueda yesterday said that the central bank wants to gather more information on how the initial momentum of the 2026 shunto will be before deciding to raise the policy rate.The market doesn’t expect a hike in 2025 anymore with the first one seen coming in March 2026 at the earliest. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight Japan’s unions pushing for a 6% wage hike could signal inflationary pressures ahead. This move comes as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is still navigating its ultra-loose monetary policy. If wage growth accelerates, it could lead to increased consumer spending, which might push inflation higher. Traders should keep an eye on the Nikkei 225 and the Japanese yen, as both could react to shifts in wage expectations. A successful negotiation could lead to a stronger yen and a bullish sentiment in Japanese equities, especially in consumer sectors. Conversely, if the BoJ remains hesitant to adjust its policies in response, it could create a disconnect between wage growth and monetary policy, leading to volatility. Here’s the thing: while higher wages might seem positive, they could also raise operational costs for companies, impacting profit margins. So, watch how the market reacts to these negotiations and any comments from the BoJ in the coming weeks, particularly around key economic indicators like inflation rates and employment data. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the Nikkei 225 and Japanese yen closely; a successful wage negotiation could boost both, while BoJ’s response will be crucial.

Uncertainty is still very highProjections show us on target for sustained timeThe ECB yesterday left everything unchanged as the central bank has ended its easing cycle back in June. President Lagarde reiterated that the ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path and will remain data-dependent in its policy approach. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The ECB’s stance on rates is a big deal for traders, especially with ETH at $3,865.26. With the central bank halting its easing cycle, the focus shifts to data dependency, which could lead to volatility in both crypto and forex markets. If inflation data comes in hot, we might see a stronger euro, which could pressure ETH and other crypto assets. Traders should keep an eye on the correlation between ETH and euro movements, as shifts in monetary policy can create ripple effects across asset classes. Watch for key support around $3,800 for ETH; a break below could signal further downside. Conversely, if ETH holds above this level, it may attract buyers looking for a bounce. But here’s the flip side: if the ECB remains dovish longer than expected, it could boost risk appetite, benefiting crypto. So, monitor upcoming economic data closely, as it could dictate market sentiment and trading strategies in the near term. 📮 Takeaway Watch ETH closely around the $3,800 support level; a break could lead to further downside, while holding above may attract buyers.

Prior +2.2%House prices M/M +0.3% vs +0.0% expectedPrior +0.5%Full report hereCommenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:“October saw a slight rise in the rate of annual house price growth to 2.4%, from 2.2% in September. Prices increased by 0.3% month on month, after taking account of seasonal effects.“The housing market has remained broadly stable in recent months, with house prices rising at a modest pace and the number of mortgages approved for house purchase maintained at similar levels to those prevailing before the pandemic struck.“Against a backdrop of subdued consumer confidence and signs of weakening in the labour market, this performance indicates resilience, especially since mortgage rates are more than double the level they were before Covid struck and house prices are close to all time highs. “Looking forward, housing affordability is likely to improve modestly if income growth continues to outpace house price growth as we expect. Borrowing costs are also likely to moderate a little further if Bank Rate is lowered again in the coming quarters.“This should support buyer demand, especially since household balance sheets are strong – indeed, in aggregate the ratio of household debt to disposable income is at its lowest for two decades. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight House prices just ticked up, and here’s why that matters for traders: The latest data shows a 0.3% month-on-month increase in house prices, which is above the expected flat growth. This uptick in the annual growth rate to 2.4% from 2.2% in September signals a potential shift in the housing market, which could have broader implications for related sectors like construction and consumer spending. For traders, this could mean a more stable economic environment, possibly affecting interest rates and mortgage lending. If this trend continues, we might see a ripple effect on stocks in the real estate sector, as well as commodities tied to construction materials. However, it’s worth noting that while this data is positive, the market remains sensitive to external factors like inflation and interest rate changes. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming economic indicators, particularly any shifts in the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, as that could quickly alter the housing market dynamics. Watch for key levels in housing stocks and related ETFs, especially if they start breaking above recent resistance levels. 📮 Takeaway Monitor housing stocks closely; a sustained increase in prices could signal broader economic stability, impacting interest rates and related sectors.

Prior -0.2%Retail sales Y/Y +0.2% vs +1.9% expectedPrior +1.8%Full report hereThis is not a market-moving release. From the agency: Sales in the retail trade in foodstuffs rose by both real and nominally by 0.3% in September 2025 compared to the previous month in both real and seasonally adjusted terms. Compared to the same month of September 2024, sales in food retailing recorded an increase of 0.2% in real terms and 2.9% in nominal terms.In the retail trade in non-food products, calendar and seasonally adjusted sales fell by both real and nominal sales in September 2025 compared with the previous month by 0.6%. Compared to the same month of September 2024, sales here grew by 0.2% in real terms and by 1.1% in nominal terms.In the Internet and mail order trade, sales in September 2025 recorded an increase in sales of 0.4% in real terms and 0.6% in nominal terms. Compared to the same month of September 2024, sales in the Internet and mail order trade grew by 3.7% in real terms and 4.4% in nominal terms. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight Retail sales data missed expectations, and here’s why that matters for ETH: With ETH currently at $3,865.26, the underwhelming retail sales growth of only 0.2% against an expected 1.9% could signal a slowdown in consumer spending. This is crucial for traders because weaker retail performance often leads to reduced risk appetite, which can negatively impact crypto assets like Ethereum. If the trend continues, we might see ETH testing lower support levels, particularly if it breaks below $3,800. Look, while this report isn’t a direct market mover, it reflects broader economic sentiment. If retail sales continue to falter, we could see institutions pulling back from riskier assets, including crypto. Keep an eye on correlated markets like equities, as a downturn there could trigger further selling in ETH. Watch for any shifts in trading volume or sentiment indicators over the next week, as they could provide clues on how traders are positioning themselves in response to this data. 📮 Takeaway Monitor ETH closely; a drop below $3,800 could trigger further selling pressure, especially if retail sales trends worsen.

Prior -0.2% (revised to -0.4%)This is not a market-moving report and won’t change anything for the SNB for sure. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The recent revision of the prior economic report to -0.4% might seem minor, but it reflects underlying economic weaknesses that traders should consider. While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) isn’t likely to alter its monetary policy based on this data, it does highlight a broader trend of economic sluggishness that could impact the Swiss Franc (CHF) and related assets. Traders should keep an eye on the CHF’s performance against major pairs, particularly the EUR/CHF, as any signs of weakness could trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, this could influence risk sentiment in the forex market, especially if other economic indicators follow suit. Watch for any upcoming reports that could provide more context, as a consistent pattern of negative revisions could lead to increased volatility in the CHF and related markets. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the EUR/CHF pair closely; any sustained weakness could signal broader risk-off sentiment in the forex market.

Keeping interest rates unchanged was justifiedThere are both upside and downside risks to growth and inflationThere is considerable uncertainty about the inflation outlook for the coming yearsOverall impact of tariffs remains uncertainNow that ECB members are coming out of the blackout period, we will likely hear more of the same. They’ve been talking about uncertainty and both upside and downside risks for several weeks, and it’s unlikely to change as they continue to monitor economic developments. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The ECB’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged signals a cautious approach amid mixed economic signals. With both upside and downside risks to growth and inflation, traders should brace for volatility. The uncertainty surrounding inflation and tariffs could lead to fluctuating market reactions, especially in the eurozone. As ECB members resume public commentary, their insights could provide clues on future policy shifts, impacting the euro and related assets. Watch for any hints on inflation targets or economic forecasts, as these could influence trading strategies, particularly for forex pairs involving the euro. If inflation expectations rise, we might see a shift in market sentiment, potentially leading to a stronger euro against the dollar. Keep an eye on key technical levels for EUR/USD; a break above recent highs could signal bullish momentum, while a drop below support levels might trigger bearish sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Monitor ECB commentary for inflation insights; a shift in sentiment could impact EUR/USD trading strategies significantly.

Prior +1.1%CPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.1% expectedPrior -1.1%Full report hereFrom the agency:Over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should rise by 1.0% in October 2025, after +1.2% in September, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of the month. This slowdown in prices should be explained by a more sustained fall in prices of energy, driven by the decrease in those of gas and petroleum products, and by a slowdown in food prices. The prices of services should increase at the same rate than in September, like those of tobacco, and the prices of manufactured products should fall at a slightly faster rate than in the previous month.Over one month, consumer prices should rise by 0.1% in October 2025, after ‑1.0% in September. This slight rise in prices should be explained by the increase in services prices, particularly in transport, and to a lesser extent in manufactured products prices. Conversely, prices of energy and food should fall slightly. Tobacco prices should be stable again over a month. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight CPI data showing a slowdown to 1.0% in October 2025 is a crucial indicator for traders right now. This decline from 1.2% in September suggests easing inflationary pressures, which could influence central bank policy decisions. Traders should watch how this impacts interest rate expectations, particularly in forex markets where currency pairs react sharply to inflation data. A lower CPI might lead to a more dovish stance from the Fed, potentially weakening the dollar against major currencies. Keep an eye on the USD/EUR and USD/JPY pairs for volatility as traders adjust their positions based on these inflation figures. On the flip side, if inflation remains stubbornly high despite this drop, it could lead to a market correction as traders reassess their strategies. So, monitor the upcoming economic reports closely, especially any revisions to CPI forecasts or comments from Fed officials. The immediate focus should be on how the market reacts in the next few trading sessions, especially if we see any significant moves in the bond markets as yields adjust to these inflation expectations. 📮 Takeaway Watch the USD/EUR and USD/JPY pairs closely for volatility as traders react to the CPI slowdown and potential Fed policy shifts.