She is due to deliver a keynote address at 1100 GMT as part of the Norges Bank Climate Conference. Right after, she will be participating in a moderated conversation with former US vice president Al Gore. The conference centers around discussing the impact of climate change and the energy transition on the macroeconomy and financial markets. Her address and conversation is scheduled for about an hour.Given the backdrop above, I wouldn’t expect any material remarks on monetary policy from Lagarde. And even if there were any, she won’t tell us anything we don’t already know with the ECB on pause mode until year-end. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The upcoming keynote by a prominent figure at the Norges Bank Climate Conference is crucial for traders, especially those in energy and sustainability sectors. The focus on climate change and energy transition could signal shifts in regulatory frameworks and investment flows, particularly towards green technologies. Traders should keep an eye on how this discourse influences energy stocks and commodities, as well as cryptocurrencies related to sustainability, like Bitcoin’s energy consumption narrative. Moreover, the participation of Al Gore adds weight to the conversation, potentially attracting institutional interest in ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investments. If the dialogue emphasizes urgent action, we might see a spike in demand for green assets, which could lead to volatility in traditional energy markets. Watch for any specific commitments or policy announcements that could act as catalysts for price movements. In terms of technical analysis, monitor key levels in energy stocks and related ETFs; a break above recent resistance could indicate a bullish trend. Additionally, keep an eye on the correlation between traditional markets and crypto, as shifts in sentiment could ripple through both sectors. Overall, this conference could set the tone for how markets perceive the urgency of climate action, impacting trading strategies in the short and medium term. 📮 Takeaway Traders should watch for potential shifts in energy markets and ESG investments stemming from the Norges Bank Climate Conference, as these could create volatility and trading opportunities.

As mentioned last week, this kind of volatility spikes in gold and silver is going to be more commonplace amid the surging run that both precious metals have had and especially as they continue to hang at the highs. For gold though, there is perhaps a short-term double-top pattern that is worth taking notice as it drops by over 2% today to $4,258 currently:The 100-hour moving average (red line) is a key near-term level to watch as sellers have failed to really secure a break of that since the beginning of the month. That rests around $4,270 currently. And even on a break of that, dip buyers still have room to lean up against the 200-hour moving average (blue line) closer to $4,163 for the time being. So, it’s not to say that a stronger correction is in motion just yet.That being said, is silver going to lead the way in a push lower in gold this week? We’re starting to see the technical cracks in silver with it breaking below both key hourly moving averages now:That’s the first time this month that sellers have managed that and a break under $50 does send a message in solidifying their conviction.There’s no major headlines driving the drop here so profit-taking remains the most plausible reasoning. But if silver is bound for a steeper decline amid the technical break above, it could be one of the not-so-frequent times that it drives a similar move in gold instead of it typically being the other way around.So, watch out for that. Gold might not be breaking down just yet but silver is already cracking under the selling pressure, and that could spell danger on sentiment in precious metals as a whole. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight Gold and silver’s recent volatility isn’t just noise; it’s a signal of underlying market dynamics that traders need to pay attention to. With gold hovering around key resistance levels, a potential double-top formation could indicate a reversal if it fails to break through the $2,000 mark. This pattern, historically, has led to significant sell-offs, particularly if confirmed by a drop below the $1,950 support level. The RSI is currently showing overbought conditions, suggesting that a correction could be imminent, especially if macroeconomic indicators like inflation data or interest rate changes come into play. Moreover, the correlation between precious metals and the U.S. dollar remains crucial. A strengthening dollar could exacerbate downward pressure on gold and silver prices, while any dovish signals from the Fed might provide a lifeline. Traders should also keep an eye on the volume trends; a spike in selling volume could signal that institutional players are starting to exit positions, which often precedes broader market corrections. In this environment, it’s essential to have a clear exit strategy and consider hedging positions. Watch for key economic releases this month that could trigger volatility, particularly around the upcoming Fed meeting. 📮 Takeaway Traders should monitor gold’s resistance at $2,000 and support at $1,950 closely, as a failure to break these levels could lead to significant price corrections.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD strengthened a bit on Friday following some positive Trump’s comments on China as Treasury yields bounced and erased the Thursday’s losses. Overall, the US dollar performance has been mixed as markets have been driven by quick changes in risk sentiment since Trump’s tariffs threat. On the domestic side, the US government shutdown continues to delay many key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front is weighing on the greenback. The BLS will release the US CPI report on Friday despite the shutdown, so that’s going to be a key risk event. That will need to be seen in the context of US-China relations and any negative shock by that time though. If things go south, then the CPI will not matter much as growth fears will trump everything else. On the CAD side, we got a strong employment report recently which reduced the probabilities for a cut in October to 56%. The risk-off sentiment triggered by Trump and some dovish comments from BoC Governor Macklem last week, increased the probabilities to 86%. It looks like the BoC prefers to cut no matter what in October and bring their policy rate to the lower bound of their estimated neutral rate, but the Canadian CPI data today might still trigger some hawkish repricing in case it surprises to the upside. USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD is consolidating above the key 1.4018 level. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into the 1.43 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the key level to target a pullback into the major trendline around the 1.3850 level.USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have yet another minor upward trendline. Again, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a pullback into the next trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsTodaywe have the Canadian CPI report, while on Friday we get the US CPI and the US Flash PMIs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The recent uptick in the USD, spurred by Trump’s comments and a rebound in Treasury yields, highlights a critical juncture for traders. The mixed performance of the dollar suggests that market sentiment is highly reactive, particularly to geopolitical developments. Traders should be cautious; while the dollar may gain short-term strength, the underlying volatility could lead to rapid reversals. It’s essential to monitor key economic indicators, such as upcoming inflation data and employment reports, which could further influence the dollar’s trajectory. The 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial metric; if it holds above 4%, it could bolster the dollar’s position. Conversely, any dip below this level might signal a shift in sentiment, leading to potential dollar weakness. Additionally, keep an eye on correlated assets like gold and oil, which often react inversely to the dollar. A stronger dollar typically pressures commodities, so if you’re holding positions in these markets, be prepared for possible adjustments. The real story here is the market’s sensitivity to news; traders should stay nimble and ready to pivot as new information emerges. 📮 Takeaway Watch the 10-year Treasury yield closely; a sustained move above 4% could strengthen the USD, impacting correlated assets like gold and oil significantly.

The pair moved up to a high of 151.60 earlier as Sanae Takaichi won her bid to become Japan’s next prime minister. The nudge up stalled upon testing the 200-hour moving average (blue line) before falling back to 151.06. But in the past half hour, we’re starting to see buyers step back in as price moves back up to 151.60 again:It’s a second attempt to firmly break above the 200-hour moving average, which rests around 151.52 currently. Hold a break above and the near-term bias switches to being more bullish for the pair. And as mentioned earlier, that will then free up room for buyers to try and look towards a potential test of the monthly high at 153.27 down the road.Takaichi may be a fiscal dove and markets are reacting to that. However, there will be a lot for her to try and deal with in the coming weeks/months: What are the main challenges for Japan’s first female prime minister Takaichi? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The recent uptick in the USD/JPY pair following Sanae Takaichi’s victory is noteworthy, especially as it approached the 200-hour moving average. This technical level often acts as a significant barrier, and the inability to maintain momentum above it suggests traders should be cautious. The pullback to 151.06 indicates that while there’s buying interest, the market remains indecisive. In the broader context, Japan’s political landscape is shifting, which could influence monetary policy and economic stability. If Takaichi implements more aggressive fiscal measures, it could lead to a weaker yen in the long run, especially if the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose monetary stance. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases and central bank comments that could affect sentiment. Watch for key support around 150.80 and resistance at 151.60. If the pair breaks below 150.80, it could trigger further selling pressure. Conversely, a sustained move above 151.60 might attract more buyers, particularly from institutional players looking to capitalize on volatility. The next few sessions will be crucial in determining the pair’s trajectory, so stay alert for any shifts in market sentiment or economic indicators that could sway the yen’s strength. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD/JPY pair closely around the 150.80 support and 151.60 resistance levels for potential trading opportunities based on market sentiment shifts.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD strengthened a bit on Friday following some positive Trump’s comments on China as Treasury yields bounced and erased the Thursday’s losses. Overall, the US dollar performance has been mixed as markets have been driven by quick changes in risk sentiment since Trump’s tariffs threat. On the domestic side, the US government shutdown continues to delay many key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front is weighing on the greenback. The BLS will release the US CPI report on Friday despite the shutdown, so that’s going to be a key risk event. That will need to be seen in the context of US-China relations and any negative shock by that time though. If things go south, then the CPI will not matter much as growth fears will trump everything else. On the NZD side, the RBNZ cut by 50 bps at the last meeting bringing the OCR to 2.5%, which is the lower bound of their estimated neutral range (2.5%-3.5%). They kept an easing bias though as they are trying to “feel their way” as RBNZ’s Conway recently said. On Sunday, we got the New Zealand Q3 inflation report with the data coming out basically in line with expectations. That didn’t change anything in terms of market pricing which continues to see a 99% probability of a cut in November. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the NZDUSD broke above the downward trendline but couldn’t break above the 0.5760 resistance zone. We are now consolidating just beneath that resistance awaiting new catalysts for the next direction. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action between the 0.5760 resistance and the 0.5710 support. The market participants will likely continue to play the range by buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout on either side.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will likely step in around the support with a defined risk below it to position for a rally back into the resistance, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsThe focus remains on the US-China developments but on Friday we will also get the US CPI report and the US flash PMIs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The recent uptick in the USD, spurred by Trump’s comments on China, highlights a crucial pivot in market sentiment that traders need to watch closely. This shift comes as Treasury yields rebound, suggesting that investors are reassessing their risk appetite amid ongoing trade tensions. For day traders and swing traders, this mixed performance of the dollar could create volatility, particularly in pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, where technical levels are critical. If the USD manages to hold above key resistance around 106.50 against the JPY, it could signal a stronger bullish trend, while a failure to maintain this level might invite profit-taking and a potential pullback. Moreover, the broader implications of Trump’s statements could ripple through commodities and equities, particularly in sectors sensitive to trade policies. If the market perceives a thaw in US-China relations, commodities like gold and oil could see downward pressure as risk-on sentiment prevails. Conversely, if tensions escalate again, we might see a flight to safety, benefiting the dollar and negatively impacting risk assets. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators, especially any shifts in consumer sentiment or manufacturing data, as these could further influence the dollar’s trajectory in the near term. 📮 Takeaway Watch for USD’s performance around 106.50 against JPY; a break could signal a bullish trend, while failure may lead to a pullback.

The pair fell to a low of 0.9210 earlier in the day and also in overnight trading, that being the lowest in nearly a year. I’d still argue that this is the lowest since April as the pair once again finds itself in a tricky spot just above the 0.9200 mark. The figure level seems to be where “someone” is drawing the line on the bottom for the pair these days. *coughs in Swiss notes*The SNB is already now dealing with the potential threat of deflation again and having to perhaps resort to negative rates sooner or later. The last thing they’d want is for the Swiss franc to breach a key level and strengthen further. Intervention time? Keep your eyes peeled on this one.The 0.9200 mark is one that we’ve yet to see meaningfully broken since hanging at the lows for about a year-and-a-half now. It could mark one of the more significant moves in what otherwise looks to be a dull week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The recent drop to 0.9210 is more than just a number; it signals a potential breakdown in the pair’s stability, especially as it hovers just above the psychological support level of 0.9200. Traders need to consider that this level has historically acted as a pivot point, and a sustained breach could trigger further selling pressure, possibly leading to a test of the 0.9150 mark. In the broader context, this decline aligns with a strengthening dollar, driven by recent economic data suggesting resilience in the U.S. economy. If the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance, we could see continued pressure on this pair. Watch for upcoming economic indicators, particularly U.S. employment figures and inflation data, which could sway market sentiment significantly. On the technical side, the RSI is approaching oversold territory, hinting at potential short-term reversals, but the overall trend remains bearish. Keep an eye on volume; a spike could indicate institutional interest either way. The real story is whether this pair will find support or if traders will pile on shorts, exacerbating the downward momentum. 📮 Takeaway Watch the 0.9200 support level closely; a break could lead to increased selling pressure, while a bounce might signal a short-term reversal opportunity.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD strengthened a bit on Friday following some positive Trump’s comments on China as Treasury yields bounced and erased the Thursday’s losses. Overall, the US dollar performance has been mixed as markets have been driven by quick changes in risk sentiment since Trump’s tariffs threat. On the domestic side, the US government shutdown continues to delay many key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front is weighing on the greenback. The BLS will release the US CPI report on Friday despite the shutdown, so that’s going to be a key risk event. That will need to be seen in the context of US-China relations and any negative shock by that time though. If things go south, then the CPI will not matter much as growth fears will trump everything else. On the EUR side, the single currency found support last week as the French political risk eased after Lecornu survived the no-confidence vote. On the monetary policy side, nothing has changed. The ECB is not expected to adjust rates for a long time unless we get significant deviation from their inflation target. In fact, the vast majority of ECB members is comfortable with the current rate setting and will not respond to small or short-term deviations from their target barring a clear shock in the economy.EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD avoided a key downside breakout last week. The price eventually bounced back and extended the rally into the 1.17 handle before pulling back. If the pullback extends into the key support around the 1.1573 level, we can expect the buyers to step in there with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 1.18 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 1.14 handle. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can glean from this timeframe as the buyers will better off stepping in around the support, while the sellers will look for a downside breakout. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. If the price comes back into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally back into the 1.17 handle. The red lines define average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsThe focus remains on the US-China developments but on Friday we will also get the US CPI report, and the Eurozone and US Flash PMIs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The recent uptick in the USD, spurred by Trump’s comments on China and a rebound in Treasury yields, highlights a crucial moment for traders. The mixed performance of the dollar suggests that market sentiment is highly reactive to geopolitical developments, which can create volatility. Traders should be cautious; the current environment is reminiscent of past trade tensions where knee-jerk reactions led to rapid reversals. For those in forex, the USD’s strength could impact pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, especially if the dollar continues to gain traction. Watch the 1.05 level on the EUR/USD for potential support or resistance, as a break could signal a stronger dollar trend. Additionally, keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield; if it holds above 4%, it might reinforce the dollar’s position. The real story here is the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their ripple effects on global markets. If the sentiment shifts again, we could see significant moves in commodities and equities as well. Traders should monitor upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical news closely, as these will likely dictate the next moves in the forex market. 📮 Takeaway Keep a close watch on the USD’s performance against key pairs and Treasury yields, as geopolitical shifts could trigger significant volatility in the coming days.