China permits non-state trade imports of 257 million metric tons of crude oil in 2026PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0930 (vs. estimate at 7.1219)South Korean exports fall 7.8% in October, fuelling bets on a November BOK rate cutI’ll be at the ‘Australia FIX Conference 2025’ on Wednesday, Sydney time – come say hello!Morgan Stanley sees ‘historic’ stock picking chance, names Pinterest a top buyS&P 500 at risk from ‘forced selling’ due to private credit, BofA warnsUK chancellor to cut red tape for 100,000 businesses, saving £6bnCanada Energy Regulator simplifies approval for negligible-risk oil and gas projectsArgentina’s $20bn bank loan stalls as lenders demand US guarantees… argy bargy continuesTrump admin evaluating Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public offering for end-2025German tax revenue rises 2.6% in September, but finance ministry warns of weak economyThe US Treasury proposes additional tariffs of up to 100% on NicaraguaNew Zealand September trade balance -1355mn NZD (prior -1185mn)AUD/USD – analysts nominate 0.6420 level as the one to watchTrump threatened China with 155% tariffs. Taco man becoming random number guy.Goldman Sachs on US CPI & jobs – labor market indicators more reliable on recession riskUS court gives the go ahead for Trump to put troop “boots on the ground”investingLive Americas market news wrap: Gold rebounds to fresh all-time high News and data flow was very light during the session here. Major FX rates traded in small ranges only, characterised by a little softness for the US dollar early before recovering. Regional equities caught a tailwind from the up move on Wall Street on Monday. Australian rare earth miners surged on the US$8.5 bn US critical minerals deal announced Monday.Data from New Zealand showed a larger trade deficit in September than in August. Exports in September were lower than in August while imports were a touch higher. Further rate cuts are expected from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand due to concerns over growth. From the US the Wall Street Journal reported that a $US20 billion private bank loan to support Argentina’s President Milei is stalled as lenders, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, demand a U.S. Treasury backstop before lending to the “virtually-bankrupt” nation.Meanwhile, FHFA Director William Pulte confirmed the Trump administration is “opportunistically evaluating” a public offering for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, potentially by end-2025, to finally end their 2008-era government conservatorship.From China was the news that China’s Commerce Ministry will permit non-state trade imports of 257 million metric tons of crude oil in 2026. This is the same as this year and indicates Beijing is not confident in growing demand, or that stockpiles are sufficient. The People’s Bank of China set CNY at its strongest since October 15 last year at the reference rate fix today. USD/CNY traded lower at the open. Japan’s new PM Takaichi began naming her cabinet today. The yen lost some ground. Gold stayed close to its new record high. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight China’s decision to allow non-state trade imports of 257 million metric tons of crude oil in 2026 is a pivotal shift that traders need to watch closely. This move could significantly alter the dynamics of global oil supply, especially as it comes at a time when geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production cuts are influencing prices. The increased import capacity may lead to a surge in demand from independent refiners, potentially tightening the market and pushing prices higher in the short term. On the currency front, the PBOC’s mid-point setting of USD/CNY at 7.0930, which is stronger than the market’s expectations, suggests a strategic move to stabilize the yuan amid economic pressures. Traders should keep an eye on the USD/CNY pair, especially if it tests key resistance levels around 7.10. A stronger yuan could also impact commodity prices, making imports cheaper for China, which could further influence crude oil demand. With South Korean exports falling 7.8%, the Bank of Korea’s potential rate cut in November could lead to increased volatility in the Korean won and related assets. Traders should monitor these developments closely, as they could create ripple effects across Asian markets and influence risk sentiment globally. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on the USD/CNY pair and crude oil prices, as shifts in China’s import policies and currency stabilization efforts could create significant trading opportunities.

Standard Chartered:raises China’s 2025 GDP forecast to 4.9%says yesterday’s data showed mixed signals: exports resilient, investment a sharp decline, with weakness spreading beyond the property sectorconsumption weakenedcontinued weakness in domestic demand, particularly in investmentexpects additional fiscal support measures overcapacity and global uncertainty may delay investment plans in the near termexpects tariff truce between China and the US to be extended, This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight China’s mixed economic signals are a double-edged sword for traders. On one hand, the resilient export data suggests some sectors are holding up, which could provide a temporary cushion for the yuan and related assets. But the sharp decline in investment, particularly in the property sector, raises red flags about the overall health of the economy. This could lead to increased volatility in Chinese equities and commodities tied to construction and manufacturing. Traders should keep an eye on fiscal support measures that the government might roll out to counteract these weaknesses. If these measures are substantial, they could provide a short-term boost to market sentiment. However, if they fall short, we might see a deeper correction, especially in sectors heavily reliant on domestic demand. Watch for key technical levels in the Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite; a break below recent support could signal further downside. Additionally, monitor the USD/CNY pair closely. A weakening yuan could impact global markets, particularly commodities priced in dollars. The real story here is how these mixed signals will influence investor sentiment in the coming weeks, especially as we approach year-end trading strategies. 📮 Takeaway Traders should watch for fiscal support measures from China and key technical levels in Chinese equities, as mixed economic signals could lead to increased volatility.

That seems to be the name of the game at the moment, even as Trump continues to threaten tariffs against China. Risk trades are keeping the calm and it’s going to be a crucial week ahead to see if and when Trump will relent again, as he has done in the past. Yesterday, he said that:”We are going to have a fair deal. I want to be good to China. I love my relationship with President Xi. We thought that (South Korea) would be a good place to meet, and we are going to be meeting. I will be in Malaysia, I will be in Japan.”Trump also confirmed his attendance to Malaysia later this weekend in what many expect there to be high-level talks between US and China officials as well, on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit. The big one will come at the end of the month, with Trump and Xi set to meet on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea.TACO time? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight { “insight”: “The ongoing tariff threats from Trump are more than just political posturing; they’re a key driver of market sentiment that traders need to watch closely. Risk-on trades are currently buoyed by optimism, but the reality is that any sudden escalation in trade tensions could flip the script, leading to increased volatility across equities and forex pairs. Traders should keep an eye on the S&P 500 and USD/CNY as barometers for market sentiment; a break below 4,300 on the S&P could signal a shift towards risk aversion, while a move above 7.00 in USD/CNY might indicate a flight to safety. nnBut here’s the kicker: the market’s reaction to these tariffs often lags behind the headlines. Historical patterns show that significant moves in the forex market can take 1-2 weeks to materialize after major announcements. So, while the immediate impact might seem muted, the ripple effects on commodities and emerging markets could be substantial. Watch for changes in volume and open interest in related assets, as these can provide clues about institutional positioning. nnIn the coming days, keep an eye on economic indicators like the PMI and employment data, as these will shape the narrative around trade negotiations and market stability. The real story is how traders react to these developments, so stay alert for signs of a shift in sentiment.”, “takeaway”: “Monitor the S&P 500 and USD/CNY closely; a break below 4,300 or above 7.00 could signal a significant shift in market sentiment and trading 📮 Takeaway “: “Monitor the S&P 500 and USD/CNY closely; a break below 4,300 or above 7.00 could signal a significant shift in market sentiment and trading

The firm points out that precious metals have outperformed all currencies and other commodities in recent months, with gold up 22% in the past three months and silver up even more by 24% in the same period. They underline the stark contrast in asset performance with the South African rand being the best performing currency against the dollar during this period, being up just 4%. So, that speaks to the weight of gold’s outperformance.Societe Generale argues that while this initially was a case of dollar-specific weakness, it is now starting to shift towards global fiat debasement concerns. That as the likes of platinum and palladium are also rallying alongside gold, which reflects a broader trend in chasing “real assets”.As things stand, the firm is of the view that the dollar remains “overvalued in real effective terms”. And this makes for a case to “buy shiny stuff” with US deficit concerns and narrowing rate differentials set to weigh on the dollar outlook. Adding to the fact that gold is also widely regarded as a hedge for inflation and policy credibility risks, with the latter seemingly prominent these days.In this current landscape, Societe Generale notes that: “It’s easier to spell out a bearish case for the dollar than a bullish one for anything else.”As a reminder, the firm’s latest forecast is for gold to hit $5,000 by the end of 2026. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight Gold and silver’s recent surge, with gold up 22% and silver 24% in just three months, signals a significant shift in market sentiment. This performance starkly contrasts with the South African rand, which has struggled, highlighting a flight to safety as traders seek refuge from currency volatility and geopolitical tensions. Precious metals often act as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, and with ongoing economic uncertainties, this trend could continue. Traders should keep an eye on key technical levels; for gold, a break above $2,000 could attract more institutional interest, while silver’s resistance around $25 will be crucial. The RSI for both metals is nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback, but the underlying bullish momentum remains strong. It’s also worth noting that this rally could impact related markets, particularly mining stocks and ETFs. If gold and silver maintain their upward trajectory, we might see increased buying pressure in these sectors. Watch for any shifts in central bank policies or inflation data, as these could further influence precious metal prices in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on gold’s $2,000 resistance and silver’s $25 level; a breakout could signal increased institutional buying and further price appreciation.

This is her third attempt at becoming prime minister, but perhaps not at the best time amid the troubles and struggles faced by her LDP party. Four prime ministers in five years is hardly convincing for a country that has long held a stable and steady political landscape.In any case, the first round of votes has now started and the number needed for a majority is 233 votes. After a deal with Nippon Ishin, Takaichi outright should command 231 votes. So, any abstentions or defections could see her take it in the first round. If there is no majority, a second round of voting will be needed i.e. runoff vote at 0530 GMT. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The political instability in Japan, marked by the frequent turnover of prime ministers, is a significant red flag for traders, especially those focused on the yen and Japanese equities. With the LDP facing internal struggles, any leadership change could lead to shifts in monetary policy or fiscal stimulus, which are crucial for market sentiment. Traders should keep an eye on the Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY pairs, as volatility might spike if the new leadership signals a departure from current economic strategies. Moreover, the broader implications of this instability could ripple through global markets, particularly if Japan’s economic policies shift towards more aggressive stimulus measures. This could lead to a weaker yen, impacting commodities priced in dollars and potentially boosting inflationary pressures in other economies. Watch for key economic indicators from Japan, such as GDP growth rates and inflation data, as these will be critical in assessing market reactions. In terms of technical analysis, keep an eye on the 145 level for USD/JPY; a break above could signal a stronger dollar as traders react to the political climate. The next few weeks will be pivotal, so stay alert for any major announcements or policy shifts that could affect market dynamics. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD/JPY pair closely; any political shifts could trigger significant volatility and impact broader market sentiment.

Markets are continuing to keep the anticipation on US-China developments, with watchful eyes on headlines ahead of key meetings in the next week. US and Chinese officials are slated to meet in Malaysia on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit, with Trump also confirming his attendance. That will pave the way for him to meet with Xi Jinping in South Korea at the end of the month, with the two leaders set to put on a show to the world once again.As things stand, markets are well expecting Trump to relent on his tariffs threat. He might have reiterated that yesterday here but risk trades are continuing to keep the calm for the most part. TACO all the way.Given that the US government shutdown is also still persisting, market players don’t really have all too much else to work with. And in European trading today, another near empty calendar day is not going to offer much inspiration for traders and investors.As such, the market mood is still going to stick with the cautious optimism ahead of key trade developments while also waiting on the Fed to deliver another 25 bps rate cut next week. Tick tock, tick tock. Can time move any faster? 🤪 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The upcoming US-China meetings are pivotal, especially with Trump’s attendance adding a layer of unpredictability. Traders should be on high alert as any announcements could trigger significant market movements, particularly in equities and commodities. If tensions ease, we might see a rally in risk assets, while any signs of escalation could lead to a flight to safety, impacting gold and the dollar. Historically, these high-stakes meetings have led to volatility spikes, often followed by a trend reversal. For instance, after the last major summit, we saw a 5% swing in the S&P 500 over a week. Keep an eye on key technical levels: the S&P is currently testing the 4,300 resistance, while gold is hovering around $1,900. A breakout or breakdown from these levels could signal the next move. Also, watch for changes in funding rates in crypto markets, as they often react to macroeconomic news. If funding rates rise significantly, it could indicate increased speculative interest, leading to volatility. The real story here is how market participants, especially institutions, will position themselves ahead of these meetings. Traders should prepare for potential whipsaws and consider tightening stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. 📮 Takeaway Stay alert for market volatility around the US-China meetings; key technical levels and funding rates could signal significant shifts in risk sentiment.