Feels that BOJ must respond to the fact that headline inflation has exceeded 2% for a while nowInitial fear over impact of tariffs has diminishedTankan report indicates tariffs have not caused significant slowdown in Japan’s economyExpects Japan’s consumption to continue increasing moderatelyWas particularly worried about risk of big market volatility from US tariffsBut US economy has averted a downturn and yen is weakening rather than strengtheningConditions are falling in place where second-round effects of inflation could broadenBOJ must gradually “shift gears” in several stages when conducting monetary policyHe continues to push a more hawkish agenda here after being one of two dissenters in proposing for a rate hike last month. The break in the norm from Takata stands out the most as he has been thought to hold views closely aligned to BOJ governor Ueda. So as it turns out, not really. He’s not being explicit about pushing for a rate hike but from the message here, it is clear he will more than likely do so again. That being said, he does say that the BOJ bond tapering process needs to be cautious and take more time. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The Bank of Japan’s prolonged inaction in the face of rising inflation signals a delicate balancing act between stimulating growth and curbing price surges. With inflation now comfortably above the 2% target, the central bank’s hesitation could lead to a credibility crisis if consumers start to lose faith in its commitment to price stability. Meanwhile, the Tankan report suggests that fears of tariffs derailing the economy were overblown, which might embolden the BOJ to adopt a more proactive stance. As consumption trends upward, the real question is whether the BOJ will act before the market forces its hand. 📮 Takeaway Watch for BOJ policy shifts as inflation pressures mount; timing could be crucial for investors.
Gold set to stay underpinned going into next year – Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole underscores four key drivers to the gold rally this year and argues a case for the precious metal to stay supported at least in the first half of 2026. The four main factors helping to boost gold prices this year are:Gold use as a currency debasement hedge i.e. investors seeking protection against inflation and fiscal concerns in the likes of the US, Japan, and EuropeSafe haven demand i.e. gold becoming preferred amid loss of appeal in traditional safety assets such as the Japanese yenCentral bank diversification i.e. central banks across the globe, especially emerging markets, are continuing to increase their gold reserves while at the same time reducing their exposure to the dollar (China obviously one of the bigger names here)Geopolitical risks i.e. rising policy instability across the globe, making for defensive flows alongside stagflation risks growing in many major economiesGiven the above drivers, Credit Agricole highlights that gold will continue to stay supported with the Fed set to continue easing further and as fiscal and political risks remain across the globe. That should keep the precious metal bid in the first half of next year, though the momentum will shift away from physical demand and turn more towards real yields and the US dollar outlook.That as central bank gold holdings are getting close to all-time highs, which could signal that physical demand may be starting to run into some limitations down the road. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight Credit Agricole’s analysis highlights that gold is not just a shiny relic but a strategic asset in turbulent times. With currency debasement fears looming large, investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven, reminiscent of the old adage that when the going gets tough, the tough get gold. This trend signals a potential shift in market sentiment, where traditional assets may take a backseat to the allure of precious metals. As we look toward 2026, the implications for traders are clear: gold could be the lifeboat in a sea of economic uncertainty. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on gold as a hedge against currency risks in the coming months.
From FundingPips to Tradin: CEO Powers Next Chapter in Trading Innovation
Khaled A’yesh, CEO of FundingPips, has officially announced the launch of his new brokerage platform, Tradin. FundingPips has quickly become one of the leading names in the proprietary trading industry, boasting over 2 million users globally. Tradin is designed with a trader-centric approach, embodying the ethos of “built by traders for traders.” The platform emphasizes an exceptional user experience and optimal trading conditions, featuring ultra-tight spreads, instant withdrawals, high-speed execution, and immediate human support. With institutional-grade liquidity, Tradin is committed to delivering a superior trading experience that combines competitive pricing with high-quality, reliable trade execution across various markets.Khaled A’yesh’s vision for Tradin is rooted in prioritizing the needs of traders worldwide, ensuring instant funding options and a focus on user satisfaction in all facets of the trading experience.Since its inception, FundingPips has been committed to positively influencing the future of traders by removing obstacles that hinder their success. Ayesh has focused on empowering individuals, ensuring they have a fair opportunity to pursue their dreams while creating opportunities for talented traders in need of support. With FundingPips firmly established on principles of clarity and trust, they are excited to begin a new chapter with Tradin, aimed at further enhancing our contribution to the global trading community.”The launch of Tradin represents a significant milestone in our dedication to empowering traders and making a global impact,” stated Khaled A’yesh, CEO and Owner of FundingPips. “We have established a brokerage that combines advanced technology and seamless market access with a strong focus on the needs of our trader-clients. Our objective is to eliminate barriers and foster a trading environment that is fair, efficient, reliable, and accessible for traders of all levels.”Tradin adopts a trader-client-first approach, enhancing the trading experience through a diverse range of instant funding methods. This commitment streamlines the processes of deposits and withdrawals, ensuring that traders can access the markets swiftly and without unnecessary delays.The launch of Tradin significantly reinforces CEO A’yesh’s vision and leadership within the financial industry. Under his guidance, FundingPips has successfully distributed approximately $160 million in rewards to traders and cultivated a thriving community of over 2 million traders across 195 countries in less than three years. A’yesh is now dedicated to expanding his mission to enhance transparency, inclusivity, and efficiency in trading through his brokerage.With FundingPips as a Titanium Sponsor of Forex Expo 2025, in which it won the best Prop Trading Firm Award, it showcased Tradin to the global trading community, highlighting its role as a transformative solution in today’s evolving financial landscape.FundingPips has quickly established itself as a leader in the proprietary trading sector by prioritizing transparency, innovation, and the empowerment of its traders. 2 million traders from more than 195 countries have recognized FundingPips as their top choice in prop trading, resulting in the distribution of an impressive $160 million in rewards, all with a strict policy of zero reward denials, underscored by a commitment to transparency and client dedication. FundingPips remains steadfastly focused on trader-oriented solutions, with its team devoted to dismantling barriers and cultivating opportunities for traders at every level. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight Khaled A’yesh’s launch of Tradin marks a significant shift in the brokerage landscape, especially with FundingPips’ impressive user base. By prioritizing a trader-centric approach, Tradin not only aims to attract seasoned investors but also to empower novices who often feel lost in the complexities of trading. This move signals a growing trend where platforms are increasingly tailored to user experience, potentially reshaping how traders interact with the market. As competition heats up, it will be interesting to see if Tradin can maintain its edge and keep its promises to its user base. 📮 Takeaway Watch how Tradin’s user experience evolves; it could set new standards in the brokerage industry.
FX option expiries for 20 October 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.The first one is for USD/JPY closer to the 150.00 mark. The pair held a daily break under that on Friday and is now having to balance out the political developments in Japan to start the week. The LDP and Nippon Ishin look set to partner up and that paves the way for Takaichi to become the next prime minister. The end of political uncertainty is good news for the yen but Takaichi’s stance as a fiscal dove, not so much.The expiries above may help to limit any downside in the session ahead with upside also capped a little closer to 151.00 for now, with the 100-hour moving average sitting thereabouts. There’s a modest set of expiries there too in case.Then, there is one for USD/CAD at the 1.4000 level. It’s not one that ties to any technical significance but amid the drift lower since the end of last week, it could limit price extensions to the downside for the pair before rolling off later today.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The USD/JPY pair hovering around the 150.00 mark is more than just a number; it’s a reflection of Japan’s economic pulse and political climate. With recent developments stirring the pot, traders should brace for volatility as sentiment shifts. A break below this threshold could signal deeper concerns about Japan’s economic resilience, while a bounce back might indicate a renewed confidence in the yen. Keep your eyes peeled—this isn’t just a currency dance; it’s a geopolitical tango. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Japan’s political landscape closely; it could sway the USD/JPY significantly.
Germany September PPI -0.1% vs 0.0% m/m expected
Prior -0.5%The slight drag on the month was mostly as a result of a decline in energy prices (-0.3%). If you strip that out, producer prices in Germany were flat compared to August. The added breakdown shows increases in the prices for capital goods (+0.1%) and durable goods (+0.1%). Price for consumer goods were flat while the price for intermediate goods (-0.1%) were down slightly. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight Germany’s producer prices are sending mixed signals, with energy prices dragging down the overall figure. However, the stability in capital and durable goods suggests that underlying demand remains resilient. This could indicate that while energy costs may fluctuate, the broader economy is holding its ground, which is a silver lining for investors. The flat reading, when energy is excluded, hints at a cautious optimism — a reminder that not all economic indicators are created equal. 📮 Takeaway Watch for shifts in energy prices; they could sway broader economic trends in Germany.
Japan's Nippon Ishin co-head Fujita says will back Takaichi in tomorrow's premiership vote
The two sides should officially announce their coalition partnership later today and this sets the stage for Takaichi to likely win her bid to become Japan’s first female prime minister. The premiership vote will take place tomorrow.As a reminder, Takaichi is a big fiscal dove with her policy intentions outlined here previously. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight With Takaichi poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister, the political landscape is about to get a fresh coat of paint. Her dovish fiscal policies could signal a shift towards more expansive economic measures, which might stir both excitement and caution among investors. If her coalition holds, we could see a wave of optimism in the markets, but it’s essential to remember that political promises often come with a side of unpredictability. As Japan navigates its economic recovery, Takaichi’s leadership could either be a breath of fresh air or a stormy forecast, depending on how her policies are implemented. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on Takaichi’s fiscal policies; they could reshape Japan’s economic landscape.
Eurostoxx futures +0.7% in early European trading
German DAX futures +0.7%UK FTSE futures +0.4%There is an air of optimism that US and China will play nice with Trump set to meet with Xi Jinping in South Korea next week. That despite the threat of tariffs still remaining. It’s all about the TACO momentum now as we wait on key headlines to work with in the week ahead, although the US government shutdown will continue to sap the energy out of markets still. US futures are holding higher as well with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight As Trump prepares for his meeting with Xi Jinping, the market seems to be holding its breath, hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough that could ease trade tensions. The slight uptick in DAX and FTSE futures reflects a cautious optimism, but let’s not forget that tariffs are still lurking like an unwelcome guest at a party. Investors should be wary; while the TACO momentum (Trade And Cooperation Optimism) is palpable, it can turn sour just as quickly if negotiations falter. The stakes are high, and the outcome could set the tone for global markets in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on trade talks; they could shift market sentiment dramatically.
USDJPY falls below a key support zone: more downside ahead or a rebound into new highs?
Fundamental OverviewThe USD strengthened a bit on Friday following some positive Trump’s comments on China as Treasury yields bounced and erased the Thursday’s losses. Overall, the US dollar performance has been mixed as markets have been driven by quick changes in risk sentiment since Trump’s tariffs threat. On the domestic side, the US government shutdown continues to delay many key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front is weighing on the greenback. The BLS will release the US CPI report on Friday despite the shutdown, so that’s going to be a key risk event. That will need to be seen in the context of US-China relations and any negative shock by that time though. If things go south, then the CPI will not matter much as growth fears will trump everything else. On the JPY side, the currency strengthened recently on the risk-off sentiment that got triggered by Trump’s tariffs threat. Domestically, the LDP party agreed to form a coalition with the Ishin party paving the way for Takaichi to become Prime Minister. On the monetary policy side, nothing has changed with traders assigning just a 23% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting and 45% chance of a rate hike by year-end.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY broke below the major support zone around the 151.00 handle and extended the drop into the 149.38 level. We just got a pullback, so we can expect the sellers to step in on the retest of the support now turned resistance and position for a fall into the 148.50 support next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and pile in for a rally into the 153.00 handle next. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum right around the major resistance zone. Again, this is where we can expect the sellers to step in to target new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the top trendline. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we already got a rejection from the resistance. If the price breaks below the most recent swing low at 150.34, we can expect the sellers to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsThe focus remains on the US-China developments but on Friday we will also get the US CPI report and the US flash PMIs. Watch the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The recent uptick in the USD, spurred by Trump’s optimistic remarks on China, highlights the fragile nature of market sentiment. Investors are clearly on edge, reacting swiftly to any news that could shift the balance of trade relations. This volatility signals a broader uncertainty in the markets, where even a hint of positivity can lead to significant currency fluctuations. For traders, this means staying nimble and ready to pivot as headlines emerge, because in today’s climate, good news can be just as fleeting as bad. 📮 Takeaway Stay alert to news on trade relations; it can swing the USD dramatically.
European indices bounce back at the open to kick start the new week
Eurostoxx +0.8%Germany DAX +1.0%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +1.0%Italy FTSE MIB +1.1%US-China trade tensions remain the main driver and for now, there is an air of optimism ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting next week. Investors are hoping for good news to come before the meeting and more to follow after as well. That as we also gear towards the next rate cut by the Fed at the end of the month. US futures are sitting higher with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% on the day, so that’s helping with the mood too. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article
Market Outlook for the week of 20th – 24th October
Monday starts quietly, with no major economic releases scheduled for the FX market. However, traders will keep an eye on Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey for insights into business sentiment. On Tuesday, attention will turn to Canada’s inflation data, which will be the key highlight of the day and Wednesday the focus will shift to the U.K.’s CPI figures. Thursday brings Canada’s retail sales data and U.S. existing home sales, both of which will provide updates on consumer activity and housing market conditions. The week concludes on Friday with a busy data calendar featuring manufacturing and services PMI releases for Australia, the U.K., the eurozone, and the U.S. In addition, the U.S. will publish its inflation data, revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and UoM inflation expectations, as well as the new home sales figures. The BoC’s business outlook survey is expected to show a modest improvement in sentiment following recent uncertainty surrounding trade conditions. Some signs of stabilization have already emerged, with the CFIB small business confidence index edging back above neutral in September. Retail sales in Canada are also expected to rebound by 1.0% after a 0.8% decline previously. The data will be closely monitored for indications of whether household spending remains resilient. RBC’s credit card data suggests steady momentum in September, although overall consumer spending growth in Q3 appears to have moderated compared with Q2. The consensus for Canada’s CPI m/m is –0.1%, unchanged from the prior month. The median CPI y/y is expected to ease slightly from 3.1% to 3.0%, while the trimmed CPI y/y is likely to remain steady at 3.0%. The common CPI y/y, however, is projected to edge higher from 2.5% to 2.6%. This week’s inflation report will be closely watched for clues on the BoC’s next policy decisions. Last month’s data showed that inflation pressures eased more than expected, and combined with ongoing softness in the labor market, prompted the BoC to cut rates by 25 bps at its latest meeting. The Bank has indicated that future rate cuts remain on the table and will be guided by incoming data. Markets are currently pricing in another 25 bps cut this quarter. A sharper-than-expected decline in inflation, paired with a weak business outlook survey due today, could accelerate the timing of further easing. Although the latest labor market data surprised to the upside, with the unemployment rate falling from 7.2% to 7.1%, one stronger report is unlikely to deter the BoC from its gradual path toward additional rate cuts. In the U.K., the consensus for CPI y/y is for an increase from 3.8% to 4.0%, while core CPI y/y is expected to edge higher from 3.6% to 3.7%. According to analysts at ING, the rise in inflation is largely driven by base effects from the sharp drop in petrol prices in September last year. However, this is likely to mark the peak for headline inflation, even if a substantial decline is not yet expected. Services inflation is also anticipated to show modest improvement, potentially coming in below the BoE’s projections. Inflationary pressures remain a concern in the U.K., particularly with food prices still elevated. Markets currently expect the BoE to deliver another rate cut at its February meeting next year, as policymakers balance easing inflation against lingering cost-of-living pressures. In the U.S., the consensus for existing home sales is 4.06M, up slightly from the prior 4.00M. Sales remain under pressure as high mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and rising insurance costs continue to weigh on affordability. However, analysts at Wells Fargo note that conditions have begun to ease modestly, with mortgage rates falling nearly 48 bps since mid-July and housing supply gradually improving. While affordability remains constrained, these developments could help support a mild recovery in sales. The October Eurozone PMI will offer insight into whether the region can sustain the modest growth seen in September. The composite PMI rose to a 16-month high of 51.2 last month, though the headline figure masked a mixed picture: services remained in expansion while manufacturing slipped back into contraction. Forecasts point to little change in October, reinforcing concerns about the durability of growth momentum amid ongoing weakness in industrial output and retail activity. From a monetary policy perspective, the ECB is unlikely to cut rates at its next meeting but analysts anticipate another reduction in December. The timing will depend on the euro’s strength and the pace of disinflation, with a lingering risk that any further easing could be delayed into 2026 if conditions fail to align. U.S. inflation data will finally be released this week, just ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Consensus is for core CPI to rise 0.3% m/m, unchanged from the prior reading, while the headline CPI is also expected to increase 0.4% m/m. Although the U.S. government shutdown is still ongoing and has disrupted several other data releases, the inflation figures should remain unaffected since most data collection was completed beforehand. Risks to data quality may only emerge if the shutdown extends further into subsequent releases. Inflation, however, remains stubbornly high. August CPI accelerated to a 2.9% annual pace, with core inflation running hotter at 3.1% amid rising goods prices. Wells Fargo analysts expect little relief in September, projecting headline CPI to advance 0.4% on the month which would lift the annual rate to 3.1%, its highest level in more than a year. Core CPI is forecast to climb 0.3% for the third consecutive month, keeping the year-on-year rate steady at 3.1%. Such results would underscore the limited progress in cooling inflation ahead of the Fed’s next policy decision. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight As we ease into the week, the calm before the storm is palpable in the FX market. Traders are likely sharpening their pencils, ready to dissect the Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey, which could provide a glimpse into the psyche of Canadian businesses. With inflation data looming on Tuesday, the stakes are high;