Prior was +23.2Details:Employment: 4.6 vs 5.6 last monthPrices paid: 49.2 vs 46.8 last month New orders: +18.2 vs +12.4 last monthIf there’s good news here it’s that new orders were in positive territory for the second month in a row.Shipments: 6.0 vs 26.1 last monthUnfilled orders: -2.2 vs -6.6 last monthInventories: 5.4 vs 15.0 last monthAverage workweek: 12.8 vs 14.9 last monthSix-months from now indicators:6 month index: 36.2 vs 31.5 last monthCapex index 6-month forward: 25.2 vs 12.5 last monthAnother notable thing when you look at the survey is that no firms are expecting any price decreases, despite falling oil prices. In the survey, 49.2% expect price increases while 50.8 see no change. That’s not the kind of thing a central banker wants to see in terms of anchoring prices.The special question highlights that software is ruling the world: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight DMK Insight: The latest employment figures indicate a slight improvement, but the decline in shipments and unfilled orders raises concerns about future production capacity. The positive trend in new orders suggests potential growth, yet the volatility in other metrics highlights the fragility of the current economic recovery. Investors should remain cautious as these mixed signals could impact market stability. 📮 Takeaway Monitor new orders closely as they may indicate future economic trends.

Crazy amounts of money are being thrown at AI right now, particularly on chips and power.Analysts at Goldman Sachs have a funny way of saying it’s sustainable. They dismiss concerns, arguing investment levels are sustainable. Why? Because AI deployments are boosting productivity.That’s a funny way of justifying it a day after Sam Altman announced that OpenAI will allow adult erotica on ChatGPT.In any case, Goldman argues that AI capex is at roughly 1% of GDP in 2025 and will rise to 2-2.5% in 2027 and 2028. They estimate that generative AI could lift labor productivity by 1.5 percentage points annually as adoption spreads.I think that’s all a bit fanciful as it’s entirely unclear that the people making the investments are the ones who will capture the ROI from the productivity boosts. Chips also have a very short life, so there could easily be a cash-incinerating time mismatch. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight DMK Insight: The surge in AI investment, particularly in chips and power, reflects a broader trend of companies seeking to enhance productivity through technology. Goldman Sachs' assertion that these investment levels are sustainable suggests a belief in the long-term value of AI, despite short-term volatility. However, investors should remain cautious, as the justification for such spending may not hold if productivity gains do not materialize as expected. 📮 Takeaway Monitor AI productivity gains closely to assess the sustainability of current investment levels.

That pretty much seals it, but it was 95% priced in anyway.From the Fed Governor (and candidate to be the next chair):Rate cuts beyond October will depend on dataIf job market continues to weaken, Fed should cut towards neutralNeutral is about 100-125 bps below current rateLabor market sending ‘clear warnings’ the Fed should be ready to actMain focus now is on the state of the labor marketSees slower path of cuts if GDP holds up or the jobs market speeds upTariffs having a modest impact on inflation, inflation on track for 2%No-hire, no-fire jobs market is ‘ominous’Sees conflict between strong economic growth and weakening jobs marketI think it’s ominous for a lot of reasons but the main one is that companies will find out they don’t need as many employees with AI, and then robotics will be like a nuclear bomb. “You don’t want to make a mistake, so the way to avoid that is to go cautiously or carefully and do 25, wait and see what happens, and then you can get a better idea of what to do,” Waller said Thursday during an interview on Bloomberg Television. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight DMK Insight: The Fed's stance on potential rate cuts highlights the delicate balance between economic indicators and monetary policy. As the job market shows signs of weakness, the implications for future rate adjustments could signal a shift towards a more accommodative monetary environment. Investors should remain vigilant as labor market trends will play a crucial role in shaping the Fed's decisions moving forward. 📮 Takeaway Monitor labor market trends closely, as they will influence future Fed rate decisions.

USTR Greer said that China is taking actions as if it wants to decouple, noting that the U.S. will do more to strengthen its position in rare earths. He added that additional U.S. stakes in rare earth companies are possible, as Washington and its allies focus on reshoring critical supply chains. Greer’s remarks come amid a period of heightened U.S.-China trade tension, though both sides have so far refrained from further escalation. Markets continue to expect a gradual de-escalation over the coming days and weeks. Two days ago, Greer was more positive about finding a solution with China.So what companies have US support?MP Materials (NYSE: MP) -Trading at $92.88 premarketThe U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) is investing $400 million in preferred stock (making it the company’s largest shareholder). Back in 2022, MP has been awarded $35 million (and multiple contracts) by DoD to build heavy rare earth (HREE) processing capabilities at its Mountain Pass site. It has apublic-private partnershipwith DoD to build out a U.S. “mine-to-magnet” supply chain, including a second magnet manufacturing facility (the “10X Facility”). It has also received $58.5 million in U.S. government support to advance its magnet-making facility in Texas. The DoD has guaranteed aprice floor(for key elements like NdPr) under a long-term agreement. Ucore Rare Metals (TSXV: UCU / OTCQX: UURAF) – Trading at $7.49Ucore has secured a US$18.4 million funding agreementwith the DoD to build its RapidSX™ commercial-scale rare earth separation facility in Louisiana. That award is an expansion of an existing government-backed demonstration project (with earlier $4 million funding). Ucore’s project has been designated under DPAS (Defense Priorities & Allocation System), which gives it priority status for defense contracts. Critical Metals (CRML) – trading at $26.04 pre-marketWhile not directly a recipient of large government equity funding as of latest, Critical Metals signed a 10-year supply agreement to deliver heavy rare earth concentrate to U.S. government-funded processing plants (like Ucore’s facility). This places it in the U.S. strategic supply chain network, though its government support is more via offtake / supply contracts than large equity or capital infusions.The problem for investors is the companies have already run higher. MP is up 475% in 2025UURAF is up 1300%CRML is up 234%The cost of extracting rare earths is also high and earnings? What earnings?MP EPS in August came in at -$0.18% on revenues of $57.39M with market capitalization at $15.91BUURAF last EPS was -$0.03 with a market capitalization of $725.69MCRML last EPS released on Oct 6 came in at -$0.16 vs -$0.03. It has no revenues. Some other names in the space:Lynas Rare Earths (ASX / OTC: LYC) – Trading at $20.40 One of the few large non-Chinese players with real scale. It mines in Australia and has been developing separation capacity (including a U.S. facility) to reduce reliance on China’s processing. Energy Fuels (NYSEAMERICAN: UUUU / TSX: EFR) – Trades at CAD$35.05 on the Toronto Exchange Not solely a rare earth play (also works in uranium), but is pushing into rare earth separation at its White Mesa mill. It’s part of the nascent rare earth push in North America. USA Rare Earth (USAR) – Trades at $34.10 pre-market A more speculative name. It aims for mine-to-magnet integration, building domestic supply chains and magnet capacity in the U.S. But it has yet to generate revenue profitably and remains a higher-risk, high-potential bet. All are very risky but rare earths is becoming the buzz word as concerns about disengagement puts the US at risk. We know that the Trump administration is ok with making deals with companies under the “National Security” concerns, and rare earths falls under that category. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight DMK Insight: The U.S. is responding to China's decoupling strategy by reinforcing its own supply chains in critical sectors like rare earths. This move could lead to increased investment in domestic production and partnerships with allies, potentially reshaping global supply dynamics. As nations prioritize self-sufficiency, companies involved in rare earths may see heightened interest and volatility in their stocks. 📮 Takeaway Monitor developments in U.S. rare earth investments for potential trading opportunities. 💡 DMK Insight DMK Insight: The U.S. government's emphasis on strengthening its position in rare earths indicates a strategic pivot in response to China's actions. This decoupling could lead to increased investment in domestic supply chains, potentially reshaping global trade dynamics. Investors should monitor how these developments may affect the rare earth market and related sectors. 📮 Takeaway Watch for shifts in rare earth stock performance as U.S. policies evolve. 💡 DMK Insight DMK Insight: The U.S. government's emphasis on strengthening its position in rare earths signals a strategic pivot in response to China's actions. This decoupling could lead to significant shifts in global supply chains, impacting industries reliant on these materials. Investors should be aware of the potential for increased U.S. investments in rare earth companies, which may reshape market dynamics and create new opportunities. 📮 Takeaway Monitor developments in U.S. rare earth investments for potential market shifts and opportunities.