European trade commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, is due to meet with China’s commerce minister, Wang Wentao, next week with both sides set to discuss the recent development that saw China step up export controls on rare earth minerals. This just confirms the plans that were mentioned yesterday here.Don’t hold your breath in expecting any major breakthroughs though. This is China’s ace card in trying to pressure the US and they will definitely use this as a bargaining chip to not allow Trump to dictate the conversation in a possible meeting with Xi Jinping later this month. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The upcoming meeting between the European trade commissioner and China's commerce minister underscores the growing tension surrounding rare earth mineral exports, a critical component for various industries, including tech and renewable energy. This highlights the delicate balance of global supply chains and the potential for increased geopolitical friction. Investors may note that such export controls could lead to supply shortages, driving up prices and prompting Europe to seek alternative sources, which could reshape sentiment in both the commodities and tech sectors.

Market index 317.2 vs 323.1 priorPurchase index 166.0 vs 170.6 priorRefinance index 1168.0 vs 1180.2 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.42% vs 6.43% priorThis is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The slight dip in the market index and mortgage applications suggests a cautious sentiment among potential homebuyers, likely influenced by the marginal increase in mortgage rates. This highlights the ongoing struggle for affordability in the housing market, as higher rates continue to dampen demand. Investors may note that even minor fluctuations in these indices can signal broader economic trends, particularly as the Fed navigates its monetary policy.

Fundamental OverviewThe Nasdaq continues to recover the losses experienced on Friday following Trump’s threat of increasing tariffs by 100% on China in response to the recent Chinese imposition of export controls on rare earth minerals.Over the weekend, we got more soothing words from Trump and other US officials that eventually led to a big upside gap at the open. The gap was then filled following a bit more aggressive comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent and some Chinese countermeasures on port fees. Yesterday, US Trade Representative Greer repeated mostly the same stuff that we’ve already heard over the weekend but added two important comments as he mentioned that they are watching the stock and bond markets and that they want to make sure the market responds to appropriate info. This sounds like they don’t want the market to think this is going to be another April. They want the market to keep expecting a de-escalation, which has indeed been the case since the weekend. Even Trump’s late post threatening a termination of cooking oil business with China sounded like a very weak move. This suggests a limited pain threshold by the US administration which shouldn’t be surprising given the overstretched positioning in the stock markets. The Friday’s selloff was so aggressive for this reason. So, if things go south between now and November 1, then we could indeed have another April-like selloff. For now, the downside is limited by the de-escalatory expectations.Nasdaq Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq erased most of the Friday’s losses with the price now trading near the key 25,034 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for another drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the resistance zone around the 25,000 level and the recent choppy price action. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, if we get a pullback from the resistance, we can expect the buyers to step in around the most recent swing low at 24,689. In case the price breaks through that level though, we can expect the drop to extend into the lows around the 24,400 level as the sellers will likely pile in more aggressively. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsWe don’t have key data releases this week given the US government shutdown. The Fed speakers continue to repeat the same old stuff. As of now, we know that only the US CPI will be published despite the shutdown, which is scheduled for Friday October 24. At the moment, the markets are solely focused on US-China headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight This situation underscores the delicate balance between trade policy and market stability. As the Nasdaq rebounds, it suggests that investor sentiment is highly reactive to geopolitical tensions, indicating a potential vulnerability in the market. The soothing rhetoric from U.S. officials may provide temporary relief, but it highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade relations with China, which could reshape sentiment in the tech sector if tensions escalate again. Investors may note that while short-term recoveries are possible, the underlying risks remain a significant factor in their decision-making.

BofA reports an EPS of $1.06, beating estimates of $0.94, as profit also rises on dealmaking strength. Net interest income (NII) was $15.2 billion on the quarter and that also beat on estimates and is up 9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, net income coming in at $8.5 and that’s a significant bump from $6.9 billion in the same quarter last year.As for Morgan Stanley, the bank reports EPS of $2.80 and that’s a whopping beat of estimates of $2.10. It’s pretty much beats across the board as the bank’s investment arm performed strongly in Q3. Equities sales and trading revenue were a beat at $4.12 billion, above estimates of $3.41 billion. FICC sales and trading revenue clocked in at $2.11 billion, just above estimates of $2.07 billion. And wealth management net revenue was seen at $8.23 billion, above estimates of $7.78 billion. Overall revenue came in at $18.22 billion in Q3, well above estimates of $16.34 billion.This will keep the optimism flowing in equities as we look to the day ahead. S&P 500 futures are up 0.6%, Dow futures up 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.8% currently. Russell 2000 futures are also seen up 0.8% after the over 1% gains yesterday. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight BofA's stronger-than-expected earnings and rising net interest income underscore the bank's resilience in a challenging economic landscape. This suggests that robust deal-making activity is not only bolstering profits but also enhancing investor confidence in the financial sector's recovery. As interest rates remain a focal point, the bank's ability to capitalize on these conditions could reshape sentiment, making it a key player to watch in the coming quarters.

Headlines:After a back and forth start to the week, the dollar now starts to lose momentumGold Technical Analysis: Lack of bearish drivers keeps the bullish momentum intactBofA, Morgan Stanley earnings beat estimates in Q3EU trade commissioner says to meet with China’s commerce minister next weekChina’s Lin: The US and China should engage in talksECB’s Dolenc: No reason to change rates in the coming monthsSpain September final CPI +3.0% vs +2.9% y/y prelimFrance September final CPI +1.2% vs +1.2% y/y prelimEurozone August industrial production -1.2% vs -1.6% m/m expectedUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 10 October -1.8% vs -4.7% priorChina September M2 money supply +8.4% vs +8.5% y/y expectedMarkets:AUD leads, USD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.6%US 10-year yields down 0.7 bps to 4.014%Gold up 1.5% to $4,202.09WTI crude up 0.2% to $58.83Bitcoin down 0.8% to $112,166It was a decent session in terms of market action, as the focus and attention continues to stay on what will become of US-China trade tensions for the most part.The dollar is finding itself in a weaker spot even as risk appetite picks back up, with the bond market holding at a critical juncture. After some pushing and pulling this week, the dollar is lower today and is starting to see some shifts in the near-term price bias. That comes as 10-year Treasury yields once again flirts with the 4% mark this week.EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1627 and GBP/USD up 0.3% to 1.3355 but aren’t really pushing the upside agenda all too much on the session. USD/JPY is down 0.3% to 151.40 but dipped to just under 151.00 briefly in European morning trade earlier. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is trading back up above 0.6500 – sitting just shy of its 100-day moving average of 0.6532 on the day.In the equities space, the risk appetite is returning with stocks looking for more solid gains today. In Europe, French stocks are leading the charge amid better political developments back home while also buoyed by LVMH beating earnings estimates. The latter is helping to prop up luxury stocks, which are a key component of the CAC 40 index.As for US futures, tech shares are seen bouncing back and will join financials today in search of further gains. Q3 earnings beats from BofA and Morgan Stanley in pre-market is helping with the mood at least.But once again, one of the standout movers is in the commodities space as we see gold jump up to break the $4,200 mark for the first time. Price action remains volatile with the precious metal continuing to weave in and out of the figure level for now. Meanwhile, silver is also trading up over 2% to try and reclaim the $53 mark on the day. It’s the same old story since September until now.Amid a lack of major economic releases, Fedspeak will be the thing to watch once again in US trading later alongside Trump headlines as usual. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Read Full Article 💡 DMK Insight The dollar's waning momentum suggests a potential shift in market sentiment, possibly driven by stronger earnings reports from major banks like BofA and Morgan Stanley. This could indicate that investors are reassessing their risk appetite, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China. As these dynamics unfold, it highlights the importance of monitoring not just economic indicators, but also international relations, as they can significantly influence currency strength and market stability.