The Nobel Peace prize was awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. The five-member committee reportedly decided to nominate Machado by Oct. 6, according to earlier reports. Some sizeable bets were made late Thursday:Investigation launched: Norwegian officials are probing suspicious Polymarket trades tied to the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement.Suspicious bets: At least three traders placed large wagers on Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado winning, just hours before the official announcement.Profits made: The trades generated about $90,000 in combined profit, with one account (“Trader 6741”) earning around $53,500.Market disruption: Machado’s odds spiked Thursday evening, shifting what had been a tight race with Yulia Navalnaya, Donald Trump, and Pope Leo XIV.Leak concerns: The timing raised fears of insider information leaks, as the committee reportedly made its decision by October 6.Official response: Nobel Institute spokesperson Erik Aasheim confirmed they are “looking into it.”The White House has called the vote political. So far Pres. Trump has remained quiet but I can hear “rigged” and “political” along with the potential for more. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Oil rigs: -4 at 418Gas rigs +2 at 120Total Rigs -2 at 547.The price of crude oil is trading sharply lower by $2.48 and $59.05 as the market reacts to the prospects of higher tariffs slowing growth and demand. Hopes for continued peace in the Middle East is also an influence as is the production increases. Pres. Trump said yesterday the gasoline will be at $2 per gallon shortly This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

The St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem is speaking and says:Fed’s goals are in tensionInflation running high, labor market showing signs of potential weaknessBalanced approach on monetary policy only works if inflation expectations are anchoredLess able to respond to short-term labor market fluctuations if inflation expectations become unanchoredRight now inflation expectations a little elevated up to 2 years outLong-term inflation expectations are anchoredinflation materially above target.Labor market looks at full employment, could we getExpect tariff impact on inflation to fade by 2nd half of 2026.Only 10% of inflation we are seeing is tariffsExpects labor market. In some orderly wayprices to stop increasing due to tariffs after mid 2026. There are material risks around baseline expectations. Inflation could rise more, labor market could weaken more.Supported September rate cut as insurance against labor market weakening.Policy is between modestly restrictive and neutral.Financial conditions are accommodative.Open-minded on potential further rate cuts as further insurance.Believe we should tread with caution.Limited room for more easing before policy gets overly accommodative.Monetary policy should continue to lean against inflationExpects 4Q GDP to be healthyGDP growth is likely to be close to potential for the year. Data suggst all households are spending.Anecdotes shall low income households stretching to do soConsumer spending by some groups like Hispanics has softened.Cutting back on spending because of inflation, not from job market.Really important to achieve 2% inflation goal.St. Louis Fed will conduct on the survey to measure labor market this monthOverall, he’s more dovish than hawkish—willing to cut rates to protect the labor market—but his caution on inflation means he’s not strongly dovish. He’s positioning himself as a measured dove rather than an aggressive one. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

The GBPUSD moved lower earlier today, breaking to a new low not seen since August 5. The decline tested that prior low at 1.32594, where buyers stepped in to stall the fall. A sharp reversal followed after news that President Trump was preparing massive tariff increases on Chinese imports, triggering a strong rebound in the pound.The rally carried the pair back above the broken swing area/floor between 1.3323 and 1.3341, and extended to a high of 1.3370. That move retested two key levels: the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the August 1 low at 1.3364, and the swing low from Wednesday at 1.33695. Sellers capped the upside at that zone, and the pair has since rotated lower.Currently, price is holding within the old floor area around 1.3323–1.3341, where buyers are attempting to reestablish support. The failed downside break may prove to have been an exhaustion move, but for buyers to regain broader control, the pair must push back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.33887. A further break above the 200-hour moving average at 1.34227 would strengthen bullish momentum and shift the bias more clearly to the upside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

The S&P 500 is down 2% at the moment and if it closes that way, it will be the first 2% (or more) loss since April 4. That was the Liberation Day rout and included a 6% closing decline. The worst day since then was August 1, when there was a 1.6% closing decline.Back in February, we started to have larger market declines as the tariff worries began but it’s been an impressive 30% rally from the April 7 closing low.There is no doubt this is another TACO trade but it’s a question of where the dip is to be bought. Trump can escalate for awhile but I’m optimistic that it will be resolved sooner rather than later, in part because in Trump’s message he wrote this: I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so.That’s not a cancellation and — to me — indicates that there can be a quick resolution and the meeting can go ahead. Of course, that might also depend on what China is offering. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Oil was having a rough day before Trump threatened China with fresh tariffs. It was bouncing around $60 and the lowest levels since May. But with the rout in markets following the Trump-China spat, we have crude down $2.60 to $58.91. That’s the lowest since May and the second-lowest weekly close in four years.The combination of OPEC rapidly increasing production and another trade fight is a brutal combination for a market that’s already oversupplied. I earlier highlighted an Goldman Sachs note forecast 2 million barrels per day of excess production from now through 2026. That has to find somewhere to go and it might not until we get lower crude prices from here.There are macro implications as oil is a big component of inflation everywhere and crude is now down 28% y/y. That’s going to flatter the monthly and y/y CPI numbers for awhile and likely will tee-up 2% headline inflation. I fear that will end up being something of a trap because oil prices will inevitably bounce back.As for the Fed, the market is now pricing in 109 bps of easing in the year ahead, which is up from 100 bps at the start of the week. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

It turns out you can put Humpty Dumpty together again.Lecornue resigned at the start of the week but he’s been re-appointed and is tasked with former a new French government, according a report in Elysee.Between this, Japan and Trump it’s going to be an interesting weekend in politics. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

It was a positive day for US equities until Trump blew it up at 10:30 am ET with a tweet threatening new tariffs on China because of rare earth controls. Details have been light since then but the market isn’t waiting for details. The last few months have been a smashing success for bulls and at this point, asset managers might not want to risk ruining the year. That makes it a fairly easy decision to take profits and the Nasdaq fell more than 3%.In an ominous sign, US stock markets closed on the lows.Closing changes:Nasdaq -3.5%S&P 500 -2.7%DJIA -1.9%Russell 2000 -2.6%Toronto TSX Comp -1.2%On the week:Nasdaq -2.4%S&P 500 -2.5%DJIA -2.7%Russell 2000 -2.9%Toronto TSX Comp -1.9%Some big losers:TSLA -5.0%BIDU ADRs -8%QCOM -7.3%AMZN -4.95%META -3.9%OXY -5.1%FDX -5.0%AMD -7.8%NVDA -4.7% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Trump: Will need to raise tariffs on China goods coming into the USThe BLS will release the September CPI report on Friday, October 24 at 8:30 AM ETOctober UMich US consumer sentiment 55.0 vs 54.2 prelimCanada September employment +60.4K vs +5.0K expectedFed’s Musalem: Feds goals are in tensionBaker Hughes Oil rigs -4 at 418OMB Director says the layoffs have begunFed’s Waller: The interview for Fed chair was greatThe list for Fed Chair candidates has been narrowed down to 5Markets:Gold up $38 to $4012US 10-year yields down 9.3 bps to 4.055%WTI crude oil down $2.70 to $58.81Bitcoin down $4224 to $116,950S&P 500 down 2.7%JPY leads, AUD lagsIt was looking like a quiet end to the week early in the day. Canadian employment data was strong and that led to a nice rally in the loonie with USD/CAD falling to 1.3985 from 1.4015. Crude was also under pressure and flirting with $60 on worries about a supply glut.The UMich data underscored improving US consumer sentiment though it was hardly a shocking jump in the month. it looks liked we might limp to the weekend but then Trump tossed gasoline on the embers with a long-winded message accusing China of rare earth export controls and threatening fresh tariffs.That completely shattered the calm in markets and it was straight-away selling in equities, leading to the worst day since April 4 and the peak of Liberation Day. There is plenty of chatter that this will be another TACO trade but it might get worse before it gets better. Stock markets closed on the lows.The yen unwound some of its weakness on the headlines and that was further helped by a coalition partner of Takaichi’s new government pulling the plug. That may mean that she never becomes PM at all, though we will be watching closely to see what happens next. The bulk of the move certainly came on Trump though and it led to a drop to 151.60 in USD/JPY from 152.60 before the headlines.The US dollar was softer against the euro and pound after the news, reversing yesterday’s moves. However it was the Australian dollar that was hit hardest on global growth worries. AUD/USD fell to the lowest since August 26 in a 71 pip decline. Overall the FX moves weren’t too big given that tariffs are both USD-negative and risk-negative, cancelling each other out to some degree.Treasury yields fell notably and that was helped along by a drop in WTI crude below $59 in a worsening selloff after Trump’s message. The market is now pricing in 109 bps in the year ahead, up from 100 bps at the start of the week.This could be an interesting weekend with eyes on France, the US and Japan. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Trump is out with an announcement on tariffs:It has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them. This affects ALL Countries, without exception, and was obviously a plan devised by them years ago. It is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying. Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action, but they have, and the rest is History. Thank you for your attention to this matter!DONALD J. TRUMPPRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA There is some additional yen buying on the announcement, which is minutes before the FX market closes. USD/JPY sank an additional 50 pips and S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% further.The only notably caveat here is the November 1 date, which sounds like it leaves plenty of time to make a deal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)