WTI crude oil is down $1.22 to $60.28. That breaks last week’s low and puts $60.00 squarely in focus. OPEC+ helped give a lift to oil to start the week by only raising production 137K bpd for November but it’s all landing in a market that’s increasingly oversupplied. Higher summer demand and Chinese stockpiling has masked the excess barrels in the market but that’s coming to an end. Figures show massive amounts of crude on ships at the moment and they’re running out of places to put it. Historically, even small imbalances in the global oil market can lead to blowouts in prices.Goldman Sachs was out with a note yesterday estimating an average surplus of 2.0 million barrels per day from Q4 of this year to Q4 2026. That’s assuming OPEC+ halts its monthly 137K bpd production increases in January (which would be announced in December). However they call a full unwind of the idled 1.65 mbpd ‘plausible’.Even with the curb, they see WTI averaging $52 next year. That’s a crippling number for the market profitability and new drilling. It will inevitably lead to drilling curbs and US shale will rapidly decline by 2027.Overall, we view our 2025Q4–2026 price forecast as two-sided but skewed modestly to the downside after a sharper decline in Russia production and the upside risk. A faster decline in perceived spare capacity and a likely slowdown in non-OPEC supply growth from 2027 also skew risks to long-dated oil prices to the upside.Technically, a drop below $60 and and the June low of $59.74 would clear the way for a retest of the June low of $55.12. I think this could get ugly. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

The USDCHF began the week by basing on Monday and Tuesday near last Friday’s lows. Holding that level gave buyers the confidence to push higher. A break above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages on Tuesday turned sentiment bullish, with traders eyeing the swing area between 0.7986 and 0.7994. When the pullback that day held support at the hourly MAs, it provided another catalyst for upside momentum.The rally extended yesterday, with price moving above the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the August 1 high at 0.80396, which now serves as nearby support. Buyers carried the move up to a key swing area between 0.8071 and 0.8076, defined by prior highs from late August and early September. The week’s high stalled just shy at 0.80755.Today, the pair has eased back with an intraday low at 0.8048, leaving the day’s range a narrow 20 pips. A move below 0.80396 would hand sellers more control and signal a deeper correction. Conversely, holding above that retracement keeps buyers in charge, with a break through 0.8076 opening the door toward the next target at 0.81027. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

The preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment report is due at the top of the hour. The consensus is 54.2 compared to 55.1 previously but there is a strong correlation in this report between it and stock prices. I’ll take the upside, though markets don’t put too much weight on this.I’m increasingly convinced that the US economy isn’t headed for a recession and mindful that it could be accelerating. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

The NASDAQ index is trading at a new all-time high, up 95 points (0.41%) at 23,117.55. The S&P 500 is also higher by 26 points (0.39%), while the Dow industrial average leads with a gain of 270 points (0.60%).Despite the broader strength, Meta shares are lower today. On Monday, the stock fell to a low of $690.51, briefly dipping below a swing support from July near $691.65 before buyers stepped in. That rebound carried price sharply higher, with today’s early surge hitting $735.37 within the first five minutes of trade. At that point, Meta briefly broke above its falling 100-hour moving average at $734.74, but the move quickly failed.The stock is now trading at $731.50, down -$2.00 (-0.27%). Technically, the Monday low confirmed support at a key level, while today’s high has so far reinforced resistance at the 100-hour MA, creating a tug-of-war. If sellers can hold the line, downside pressure could build. Conversely, a sustained move above the 100-hour MA and then the 200-hour MA at $746.24 would shift momentum firmly back to the buyers and strengthen the bullish bias in line with the broader market.For now, however, the sellers remain in play and have the short term control after the test of the moving average was a success. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Details of the latest consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan:Prior was 55.1Current conditions 61.0 vs 60.0 expected (prior 60.4)Expectations 51.2 vs 51.7 expected (prior 51.7)1-year inflation 4.6% vs 4.7% prior5-year inflation 3.7% vs 3.7% priorThis report is normally not a market mover but given the lack of real economic data, it might get a bit of attention.From survey director Joanne Hsu:”Improvements this month in current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions were offset by declines in expectations for future personal finances as well as current buying conditions for durables. Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month. Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds. At this time, consumers do not expect meaningful improvement in these factors. Meanwhile, interviews reveal little evidence that the ongoing federal government shutdown has moved consumers’ views of the economy thus far.”Meanwhile, sentiment is good if you own stocks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Sector OverviewToday’s market depicts a varied landscape across different sectors, with technology stocks taking center stage. The semiconductor sector shows significant gains led by Nvidia (NVDA), which posted an impressive increase of +1.48%. Similarly, Broadcom (AVGO) follows suit with a +0.78% rise, signaling investor confidence in tech innovations.In contrast, the consumer cyclical sector is experiencing mixed results. Amazon (AMZN) dipped marginally by -0.49%, reflecting cautious consumer spending. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) managed to eke out a gain of +0.25%, buoyed by positive sentiment in the auto sector.The financial sector remains resilient with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C) both climbing by +1.33% and +1.48% respectively, highlighting stability amidst economic fluctuations.Market Mood and TrendsThe overarching mood in the markets today is cautiously optimistic. The positive momentum in tech stocks suggests an upbeat forecast for innovation-driven sectors, while the dip in consumer-related stocks indicates lingering consumer sentiment concerns. Investors appear cautiously confident, as they monitor economic indicators and corporate earnings reports.Strategic RecommendationsGiven the current trends, investors should consider bolstering their portfolios with tech stocks, especially semiconductors, which are currently showing robust performance. Explore opportunities in the financial sector, which is demonstrating strong resilience. However, exercise caution with consumer cyclical stocks as they navigate ongoing economic challenges.Monitor upcoming earnings reports in the tech space and capitalize on positive news.Consider diversifying into financial stocks to harness stability in volatile times.Stay alert to economic indicators that might impact consumer spending and cyclical stocks.As always, stay informed with real-time data to make agile investment decisions. Visit InvestingLive.com for the latest market insights. 📊 This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)