We are being challenged on both sides of our mandateWe have pressure in inflation, particularly in servicesLabour market looks broadly in balanceWe need to maintain a restrictive stance on policy to get inflation back down to our goalForecast to remain above inflation target for probably next 1-2 yearsMore difficult to see that tariffs will be a one-time impactWill not get to 2% inflation target until end 2027/early 2028There’s not much surprise to her comments as she is one of the more hawkish members on the board. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

We’re not on a predetermined pathI’m pleased with where we areThere’s still so much uncertaintyIt would be a bit of a mistake to say we know exactly where we’re going to be He’s not saying anything new here, but given that he said “we are near the bottom” suggests he’s still open for a rate cut. That puts him into the neutral/dovish camp, which is anyway in the very minority at the moment. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Fundamental OverviewThe USD rallied across the board last week after a slate of strong US data. The focus was mainly on Jobless Claims which beat expectations by a big margin with Initial Claims falling to the lowest level since July and Continuing Claims improving further. This triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations since the Fed started cutting rates solely due to weaker labour market data. This means that if we continue to get stronger labour market data, the Fed could start turning more hawkish again and we might not get another cut in October, or more probably in December. Therefore, there’s still plenty of room for the US dollar to appreciate in case of strong data as the market’s pricing remains too dovish. The Fed projected 75 bps of easing by the end of 2026, while the market is still pricing 104 bps. The greenback erased all the gains triggered by last week’s data in the meantime as we are likely experiencing a pullback after a very strong rally. Other possible reasons include the government shutdown fears and quarter-end flows. On the JPY side, we haven’t got any meaningful change in fundamentals in the meantime. The BoJ kept interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting, but the market got surprised by two members voting for a rate hike. The yen initially rallied but once Governor Ueda started speaking, the gains began to fade and eventually got erased completely as Ueda downplayed the dissenting votes. USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY broke above the key resistance zone around the 148.50 level and extended the rally into the 150.00 handle before pulling back into the resistance now turned support. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 151.00 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline around the 146.50 level.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the pullback into the previous resistance now turned support. There’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce and a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target the major trendline.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 151.00 handle. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow we get the BoJ Summary of Opinions, the US Job Openings data and the US Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we have the Japanese Tankan report, the US ADP and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and the US ISM Services PMI. Keep also an eye on Fed speakers. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Prior -15.5Economic confidence 95.5Prior 95.2; revised to 95.3Industrial confidence -10.3Prior -10.3; revised to -10.2Services confidence 3.6Prior 3.6; revised to 3.8Economic confidence continues to hold steady and the overall outlook towards the end of Q3 is still one that is affording the ECB much flexibility in keeping their policy options open. For now, the central bank is comfortable in pausing and that’s the name of the game as we look to the winter months as well. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

The week starts slowly on Monday with no significant economic events scheduled for the FX market. On Tuesday, the focus will be on Australia, where the RBA will announce its monetary policy decision. In the U.S., attention will turn to the JOLTS job openings and the CB consumer confidence report. Wednesday brings eurozone inflation data, along with the release of manufacturing PMI figures for the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. In addition, the U.S. will publish the ADP non-farm employment change. On Thursday, Switzerland will release its inflation data, while in the U.S. the weekly unemployment claims will be in focus. Friday’s highlights include a speech from BoJ Governor Ueda at a meeting with business leaders in Osaka. In the U.S., the spotlight will be on the average hourly earnings m/m, non-farm employment change, unemployment rate, and ISM services PMI. Throughout the week, several FOMC members are scheduled to deliver remarks. Australia will also shift to daylight saving time.At this week’s meeting, the RBA is expected to keep its cash rate unchanged. Since the last meeting, inflation data has come in hotter than expected, but policymakers will need more evidence to determine whether this is temporary. In addition, as Westpac analysts point out, the latest figures only provide a partial view of inflation trends beyond Q3. On the labor market side, there are some signs of gradual softening with employment growth and job vacancies slowing experiencing a slowdown.Eurozone inflation data will be closely watched, with headline CPI expected to edge up to 2.3% y/y while core inflation is projected to remain unchanged. At its most recent meeting, the ECB kept rates steady and delivered slightly dovish projections, revising inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 below the 2.0% target. This keeps the door open for another rate cut. A December cut remains possible if core and services inflation continue to ease, Wells Fargo analysts said. On the other hand, persistent price stickiness would strengthen the case for rates staying on hold for longer. September’s PMI results for the Eurozone highlighted the uneven nature of the recovery. The manufacturing index dropped back into contraction at 49.5, erasing August’s temporary improvement and undershooting expectations for continued stabilization. By contrast, the services PMI advanced to 51.4, its highest since December, lifting the composite reading to 51.2 which indicates only modest expansion. Performance varied by country. French activity weakened across both sectors, weighed down by political uncertainty at home, while in Germany, the improvement was limited to services. On balance, the surveys suggest the region is still struggling to generate meaningful momentum heading into late 2025. If this trend of subdued growth persists, it could justify one final 25 bp rate cut from the ECB, potentially reducing the deposit rate to 1.75%, Wells Fargo analysts said. The consensus for the U.K.’s final manufacturing PMI is 46.2, unchanged from the prior reading, while the final services PMI is expected to hold steady at 51.9. The outlook for manufacturing remains weak, with the sector slipping further into contractionary territory. This reversal from recent months of improving sentiment highlights potential headwinds for near-term growth. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold through the end of the year. In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM manufacturing PMI is 49.1, up slightly from the prior 48.7, while the ISM services PMI is expected to hold steady at 52.0. Both sectors remain under pressure from higher costs and soft demand. Manufacturing has been in contraction for six consecutive months, with tariffs driving up input prices and weighing on investment. Services are also struggling with rising cost burdens, which are dampening hiring appetite.The consensus for average hourly earnings m/m in the U.S. is 0.3%, unchanged from the prior month. Non-farm employment is expected to rise by 51K compared to 22K previously, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%. The labor market has cooled noticeably after showing resilience earlier in the year, with unemployment now at its highest level in four years. Hiring appetite remains subdued with job postings below spring levels and Fed regional surveys showing little change in employment plans. Still, layoffs remain scarce, with jobless claims steady around 230K. On the supply side, labor force participation has struggled to recover from earlier declines, suggesting limited improvement ahead. A further rise in unemployment would push joblessness above the Fed’s definition of full employment, potentially strengthening the case for another 25 bps rate cut at the late-October FOMC meeting, Wells Fargo analysts said. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

And that’s precisely what investors are doing to kick start the new week. S&P 500 futures are now up 0.5% with tech shares looking buoyed.As much as the government shutdown typically isn’t an economic pain and more of an operational one, this year promises something different as it could affect the timing of some key data releases ahead of the Fed’s next meeting in October. And it could strike as soon as this week’s initial jobless claims and non-farm payrolls data.For now, the mood music is calmer at least. That’s also translating to a better mood in stocks in Europe, with slight gains so far on the day. The DAX is up 0.3% with the CAC 40 up 0.2% on the session thus far. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Before we dive into the technical analysis video of today for the S&P 500, the main story for markets is policy from the Federal Reserve. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.00%–4.25% and said more cuts could come in 2025 and 2026. Lower rates are usually good for stocks because money becomes cheaper. But government bond yields have gone up, which shows many investors are not fully convinced inflation will fall quickly. At the same time, US growth was stronger than expected and fewer people filed for jobless claims, which means the economy is still healthy. Together, this creates a “push and pull” for markets — good growth on one side, but questions about future rate moves on the other.Politics and trade are also important. New talk of wider tariffs on technology goods like semiconductors could hurt some of the biggest companies in the S&P 500. This could mean higher costs or supply problems in the future. Oil prices are moving higher, the US dollar is firm, and there is also a possible US government shutdown risk next week. Any of these can add extra short-term volatility for stocks.For new investors, the message is simple: the overall picture is mixed but not negative. Rate cuts are helpful, strong growth is a cushion, and earnings forecasts are still positive. But traders will watch closely how bond yields react, how the tariff debate develops, and if a shutdown can be avoided. The S&P 500 technical picture will then show where the next moves could come.Recent headlines also matter for global risk sentiment. Gold continues to sizzle, which means investors are looking for safety, usually a risk-off signal. On the other hand, HSBC forecasts 17–20% upside in China equities by 2026, which gives a longer-term risk-on view for global stocks if China improves. Geopolitical news is mixed: Trump and Netanyahu near Gaza peace agreement is risk-on, while stronger pressure around Taiwan is risk-off for tech. And with several Fed speakers on Monday, markets will get more signals on where US rates may go next.S&P 500 Technical AnalysisThe broader market structure is still defined by a major channel visible on the weekly chart. This channel is anchored by several key touch points, including the January 2022 all-time high, which held for nearly two years before being retested in December 2023. That level later acted as support during the sharp tariff-related dip in April 2025, underscoring its importance as a long-term pivot zone. In short, the current chart story connects back to those historical highs and lows — they are not just lines on a chart, but cornerstones of the market’s technical roadmap.Zooming into the four-hour chart, the focus shifts to a futures contract rollover that created a visible gap when the September contract moved to December. Gaps like this often become magnets for price, and last Thursday the S&P 500 E-mini futures retested that gap almost perfectly. This area is a natural point where many short sellers close positions, which creates buying pressure as positions are covered.Looking forward, there are two main possibilities. The market could turn this area into a distribution pattern, such as an ascending wedge that later breaks down. Or it could consolidate here before pushing higher into fresh all-time highs. At the moment, there is no clear bearish reversal signal, only early signs of potential weakness. Given that the index is already up nearly 0.38% from Friday’s close, it is reasonable to expect a test of the upper boundary of the long-term channel, with the chance of setting new highs above the 52-week peak at 6,756.75.Always remember: trade S&P 500 futures at your own risk.S&P 500 Futures Technical Analysis VideoBelow is the video walkthrough of this analysis, showing the weekly channel, the key pivot levels from 2022 and 2023, and the recent contract rollover gap that traders are watching closely.This analysis reflects an opinion and should not be taken as financial advice. Trading the S&P 500, whether through futures or ETFs, carries risk and should be approached with caution. Always use your own judgment when applying any form of S&P 500 technical analysis, as market conditions can change quickly. For additional insights, charts, and expert perspectives on the S&P 500 and other global markets, visit investinglive.com, formerly forexlive.com.Remember that many of the information, opinions, expert analysis, trade ideas and forecasts, that you see on investingLive.com are for short and swing traders, while others are indeed for long term investors. For the latter, we have this little educational quiz, just for fun and to test out your knowledge. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

In August, the wording was that: The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace, while the effects caused from the US trade policies and so on are seen in some areas.In September, that is changed ever so slightly to: The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace, while the effects caused from the US trade policies are seen mainly in the automotive industry.That reflects their concerns on auto tariffs by the US more than anything else. Besides that, the report shows a better view on the outlook for consumer spending as the government notes that private consumption is showing movements of picking up. That’s the first time that they raised the view on that since August 2024.At the same time, they also lifted their view on capital spending since March 2024 noting that it is seen picking up moderately.The full report can be found here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Voting for the Finance Magnates Awards 2025 is now open as of September 29, 2025.These annual awards recognise the very best in the global trading industry, shining a spotlight on the top forex brokers trusted by traders worldwide.This is your chance to show support for the broker you trade with and ensure they get recognised in the category that best suits them.Your vote makes a difference: community voting accounts for 50% of the final results, alongside the expert panel review.Official Nominees: Forex Broker Brands This year’s awards feature a strong lineup of forex broker nominees and fintech nominees competing across multiple categories.Each nominee represents excellence in online trading and the industry is now invited to cast its votes.How the Voting Process WorksThe Finance Magnates Awards voting process combines both community voting and expert review.Community Voting (50% of results):The global trading community can support their favourite forex broker brand in the B2C categories.Industry professionals can also vote in the B2B fintech awards (you need to login using a corporate email).This ensures both traders and professionals have an equal say in the results.Expert Panel (50% of results): A panel of top industry experts will determine the other half of the results. Their evaluation ensures the winners are judged on performance, reliability, and innovation.👉 Find out who the judges are for this year’s evaluation panel.Voting RulesTo maintain transparency and fairness, all voters must follow the rules:Each person can vote only once.Cast one vote per brand in each award category per group.Each brand has been nominated in more than one category; however, voters should select the single category that best fits the brand.Voters with any email address can participate in the B2C Brokerage Group.Voters with a corporate email address are eligible to vote in both the B2C Broker Awards and the B2B FinTech Awards.Voters must log in to cast their votes.Each brand will only be recognised in the award category where it receives the most votes👉 Cast your vote today for your favourite forex brokerHow to Submit Your Vote1) Log in to the Voting Portal at https://awards.financemagnates.com/voting/2) Enter your email, select the checkbox to enable voting in both B2C and B2B, and click GET CODE.3) Check your inbox for the code. If you don’t see it, please check your junk/spam folder. Enter the code and continue to start voting.You need to cast your vote for each brand.Please note: you can only select one category per brand.If you vote for a second brand in the same category, the system will notify you that your previous vote will be replaced.If you wish to support your 2nd option, you must go back and cast your vote for the first brand in a different category.Once you define your votes for each brand, click Submit.👉 Cast your vote today for your favourite forex brokerWhy You Should VoteTaking part in the Finance Magnates Awards 2025 voting gives you the chance to:Support your broker and show recognition for the services you value most.Shape industry recognition, as community votes carry 50% of the total outcome.Promote fairness by ensuring that the awards reflect both community voices and expert judgment.Highlight quality and trust in the financial services industry, giving visibility to brands that set high standards.Your vote makes a difference and helps decide who will be recognised as the leaders of 2025. This article was written by investingLive at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Fundamental OverviewThe USD rallied across the board last week after a slate of strong US data. The focus was mainly on Jobless Claims which beat expectations by a big margin with Initial Claims falling to the lowest level since July and Continuing Claims improving further. This triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations since the Fed started cutting rates solely due to weaker labour market data. This means that if we continue to get stronger labour market data, the Fed could start turning more hawkish again and we might not get another cut in October, or more probably in December. Therefore, there’s still plenty of room for the US dollar to appreciate in case of strong data as the market’s pricing remains too dovish. The Fed projected 75 bps of easing by the end of 2026, while the market is still pricing 104 bps. The greenback erased all the gains triggered by last week’s data in the meantime as we are likely experiencing a pullback after a very strong rally. Other possible reasons include the government shutdown fears and quarter-end flows. On the EUR side, nothing has changed in the meantime. The ECB left interest rates unchanged at the last meeting as widely expected with limited forward guidance other than the usual data-dependent approach. President Lagarde made it clear that the central bank finished cutting rates after she said that growth risks are balanced and the disinflationary process was over. The ECB is not expected to adjust rates for a long time unless we get significant deviation from their inflation target. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD fell further into new lows last week with the sellers targeting the major upward trendline. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the 1.16 support to position for a rally into a new cycle high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for downside breaks to increase the bearish bets into the 1.1392 level next. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 1.16 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.1830 level next. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback. If the price falls into it, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.16 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow we get the French and German inflation reports, the US Job Openings data and the US Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we have the Flash Eurozone CPI, the US ADP and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and the US ISM Services PMI. Keep also an eye on Fed speakers. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)