In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 4-hour Elliott Wave Charts of NVDA. Source: fxstreet.com (Read Full Article)

EUR/CHF trades on the back foot on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak. The Euro struggles to find traction after the latest HCOB flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) pointed to an uneven recovery in the bloc, with services expanding but manufacturing slipping back into contraction. Source: fxstreet.com (Read Full Article)

United States S&P Global Composite PMI below expectations (54.6) in September: Actual (53.6) Source: fxstreet.com (Read Full Article)

United States S&P Global Services PMI meets expectations (53.9) in September Source: fxstreet.com (Read Full Article)

September 23, 2025Economic OutlookChair Jerome H. PowellAt the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode IslandShareThank you. It is a pleasure to be back here in Rhode Island. The last time I had the opportunity to speak to the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce was in the fall of 2019. I noted then that, “if the outlook changes materially, policy will change as well.”1Little did any of us know! Just a couple of months later, the COVID-19 pandemic arrived. Both the economy and our policy evolved dramatically in ways no one could have predicted. Along with actions by Congress, the Administration, and the private sector, the Fed’s aggressive response helped stave off historically severe downside risks to the economy.The COVID pandemic came on the heels of the painfully slow decade-long recovery from the Global Financial Crisis. These two back-to-back world historical crises have left behind scars that will be with us for a long time. In democracies around the world, public trust in economic and political institutions has been challenged. Those of us who are in public service at this time need to focus tightly on carrying out our critical missions to the best of our ability in the midst of stormy seas and powerful crosswinds.Throughout this turbulent period, central banks like the Fed have had to develop innovative new policies that were designed to deliver on our statutory goals during times of crisis, rather than for everyday use. Despite these two unique, extremely large shocks, the U.S. economy has performed as well or better than other large, advanced economies around the world. As always, it is essential that we continue to look back and learn the right lessons from these difficult years, and that process has been ongoing for more than a decade.Turning to the present day, the U.S. economy is showing resilience in the midst of substantial changes in trade and immigration policies, as well as in fiscal, regulatory and geopolitical arenas. These policies are still emerging, and their longer-term implications will take some time to be seen.Economic OutlookRecent data show that the pace of economic growth has moderated. The unemployment rate is low but has edged up. Job gains have slowed, and the downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, it has become clear that the balance of risks has shifted, prompting us to move our policy stance closer to neutral at our meeting last week.GDP rose at a pace of around one and a half percent in the first half of the year, down from 2.5 percent growth last year. The moderation in growth largely reflects a slowdown in consumer spending. Activity in the housing sector remains weak, but business investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from last year’s pace. As noted in the September Beige Book, a report that gathers qualitative information from across the Fed System, businesses continue to say that uncertainty is weighing on their outlook. Measures of consumer and business sentiment declined sharply in the spring; they have since moved up but remain low relative to the start of the year.In the labor market, there has been a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers—an unusual and challenging development. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment have risen. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3 percent in August but has remained relatively stable at a low level over the past year. Payroll job gains slowed sharply over the summer months, as employers added an average of just 29,000 per month over the past three months. The recent pace of job creation appears to be running below the “breakeven” rate needed to hold the unemployment rate constant. But a number of other labor market indicators remain broadly stable. For example, the ratio of job openings to unemployment remains near 1. And multiple measures of job openings have been moving roughly sideways, as have initial claims for unemployment insurance.Inflation has eased significantly from its highs of 2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. The latest available data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending in August, up from 2.3 percent in August 2024. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.9 percent last month, also higher than the year-ago level. Goods prices, after falling last year, are driving the pickup in inflation. Incoming data and surveys suggest that those price increases largely reflect higher tariffs rather than broader price pressures. Disinflation for services continues, including for housing. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up, on balance, over the course of this year on news about tariffs. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal.The overall economic effects of the significant changes in trade, immigration, fiscal and regulatory policy remain to be seen. A reasonable base case is that the tariff-related effects on inflation will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level. A “one-time” increase does not mean “all at once.” Tariff increases will likely take some time to work their way through supply chains. As a result, this one-time increase in the price level will likely be spread over several quarters and show up as somewhat higher inflation during that period.But uncertainty around the path of inflation remains high. We will carefully assess and manage the risk of higher and more persistent inflation. We will make sure that this one-time increase in prices does not become an ongoing inflation problem.Monetary PolicyNear-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. Two-sided risks mean that there is no risk-free path. If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later to fully restore 2 percent inflation.

United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (52) in September Source: fxstreet.com (Read Full Article)

Beige book showed modest growth but not very fast.Right now is unusual. Risks to employment is to the downside and inflation is to the upside.Over the summer labor market has softened. Focus on inflation needs to moderate to a more balanced approachWe will look at labor market, growth data, inflation data and ask if policy is in the right place.If policy is not in the right place, we will move it thereAggregate households are in good shape.It is not a time of elevated financial stability risks.Cannot say that labor market is really solid anymoreNASDAQ index moves to new session lows. We are not targeting prices for financial assets. Equity prices are fairly highly valuedThe hiring rate has really droppedNot hiring may be one of the ways of passing off tariffs costsAI could be the reason for lack of hiring for new grads but can’t say it’s the main reasonTariff pass-through has been later and less than expectedOur forecast is for tariffs to be a one-time passthrough, finished by year-endIt’s a reasonable base case that pass through will be done by year endThat’s almost everyone’s base case This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)