Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2%Do keep an eye out on the mood in US futures though. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.15% and that could yet start to see European stocks roll over amid some selling as we get to US trading later. For now, there is still a calmer mood as regional stocks to try to recover some added poise in trading this week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

No comment on short-term moves in marketNeed to look at actual data to see how tariff-induced inflation in the US negatively affects Japan’s exportsNot yet at the point where higher tariffs are having that negative impact thoughFood price inflation would not have a big impact on underlying inflation but there is a riskThe press conference is slowly winding down and I wouldn’t expect any more major remarks from here. Overall, Ueda has just come out to mostly brush aside the dissents from Takata and Tamura while reaffirming that the main line of communication remains the majority view in the BOJ. USD/JPY has trimmed a chunk of its losses to 147.88 on the day, helped by some light dollar firmness to start the session. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Rate cuts by year-endFed: 44 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)2026: 113 bpsECB: 4 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 10 bpsBoE: 7 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 40 bpsBoC: 20 bps (52% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 32 bpsRBA: 30 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)2026: 52 bpsRBNZ: 58 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting; the rest for a 50 bps cut) 2026: 70 bpsSNB: 4 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 8 bpsRate hikes by year-endBoJ: 18 bps (56% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)2026: 53 bps*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone. We got a very slightly hawkish repricing for the Fed but the market is still clearly disagreeing with the Fed’s forecast. The Fed projected 75 bps more of easing by the end of 2026, while the market is pricing 113 bps. That’s a significant mispricing and could be closed if we get strong US data in the next weeks and months. We had a similar mispricing last year and eventually it was the market who was wrong. Will it be wrong this time again?We had also a notably dovish repricing for the RBNZ after the New Zealand GDP data surprised to the downside by a big margin. Given that the central bank was surprisingly dovish the last time, the market is now pricing good chances of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting.Finally, the market got surprised by the two dissents on the BoJ decision. In fact, two board members, Takata and Tamura, voted for a 25 bps hike at this meeting already. Overall, the market pricing didn’t change much given that we were already expecting a hike by the end of the year and it’s not a big difference if it’s going to be in October or December. Governor Ueda has also downplayed the dissents in the press conference. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

After the BOJ decision earlier today, the pair dribbled lower and fell to a low of 147.20 at the tail end of Asia trading. That was met by buyers who moved to defend a key near-term level on the chart (200-hour moving average) but it was BOJ governor Ueda’s press conference that saw the yen strength faded so far today.The Japanese central bank voted by a 7-2 majority to keep interest rates unchanged, with board members Takata and Tamura dissenting in favour of a 25 bps rate hike. That sparked some intrigue amid a more hawkish tilt in the voting situation, one that is rarely seen when it comes to the BOJ. However, Ueda was quick to dismiss any material break in the ranks during his presser.All he mentioned was that Takata and Tamura voted in favour of hiking rates. But the rest of his comments were mainly reaffirming the majority view of the BOJ, adding that they are looking to stay on a more data-dependent approach. USD/JPY recovered in moving from around 147.50-60 to 147.90 levels currently.The move up is of course also helped by a firmer dollar so far on the session. EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.1757 while GBP/USD is down 0.5% to 1.3490 on the day. The greenback is keeping its advance from overnight, as traders continue to digest the post-Fed mood in broader markets.In the bigger picture though, USD/JPY is still largely meandering between some key levels as pointed out here. Something’s gotta give eventually and only then will we see a move with more trending conviction in the pair. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

Before the decision yesterday, Morgan Stanley had noted before this that there was a “possibility of cuts in both November and December or neither”. Adding that their base case was expecting “sequential cuts from November 2025 to a terminal rate of 2.75%”. So, this marks a notable change to that particular call.Besides that, UBS Global Wealth Management and Peel Hunt both also no longer expect the BOE to deliver any more rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas has pushed back their call of a rate cut in November to one in December now. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)

2028 inflation forecast likely to be below 2%Still see inflation risks to downsideNext move is still likely to be a cutCenteno has been one of the most dovish members for a long time and he’s not deviating from that stance here. When dovish members make dovish comments, the market ignores them because it’s a known information and therefore doesn’t change future expectations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. Source: investinglive.com (Read Full Article)