Bitcoin continues to trade below its record high set earlier this month, hovering above the $119,000 mark. While price action over the past week has shown only a modest 0.3% gain, analysts suggest the market may be nearing a turning point. The sideways movement in price has not deterred the broader bullish outlook, but on-chain indicators now suggest caution may be warranted. One such indicator comes from CryptoQuant’s QuickTake contributor Arab Chain, who flagged potential overheating in Bitcoin’s current market structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Realized Price Chart Reveals Key Defense Zones Amid Volatility Bitcoin Bullish Trend Persists, but Signs Point to Caution In a recent post, the analyst highlighted the behavior of the Bull and Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which now sits in a zone typically associated with strong bullish trends. However, its proximity to the so-called “overheated bull” range has raised concerns about a possible correction on the horizon. The indicator’s historical pattern suggests this zone often precedes a price cooldown, leading investors to consider profit-taking strategies. Arab Chain noted that despite the bullish structure, the indicator’s advance toward overheated territory could prompt speculators to close positions. “The proximity of overheated zones suggests that this is not the right time for a major purchase,” the analyst explained. The insight reflects the broader sentiment that market participants may opt for a wait-and-see approach, anticipating a more favorable re-entry after a correction. Additionally, while the 30-day to 365-day moving averages still support a continued uptrend, they may also signal that a short-term top is forming unless disrupted by new market catalysts. Retail Interest Remains Muted as Institutional Demand Grows Supporting this view, another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, emphasized the role of institutional activity in driving the current cycle. Kesmeci explained that retail investors have reduced their exposure to Bitcoin since early 2023, while large investors have increased their holdings, particularly from early 2024 onward. “This time, the source of the Bitcoin rally is not retail — the big players are in the driver’s seat,” he wrote. This accumulation by high-volume wallets, likely linked to institutions or ETFs, highlights a shift from previous cycles dominated by retail behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin Final Push? Wave (5) Could Deliver A Spectacular Breakout Kesmeci further pointed to Google Trends data showing that search interest in “Bitcoin” remains subdued compared to previous bull runs. The absence of widespread retail excitement contrasts with the intense public engagement seen during Bitcoin’s surge in 2021. According to Kesmeci, the quiet phase may indicate that retail has not yet entered the market en masse — a stage that historically signals the final leg of a bull cycle. “The crowd has not awakened yet,” he noted, adding that “smart money is currently on stage — and most people are still watching from the sidelines.” Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView Source: newsbtc.com (Read Full Article)

Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun has made the headlines again after its recently launched token, PUMP, plummeted to new lows. The nosedive follows a recent update on the token’s highly anticipated airdrop and its legal troubles. Related Reading: Dogecoin Retests Crucial Support Following 8.6% Drop – Here Are The Levels To Watch PUMP Token Loses $1 Billion MC Just over a week after launch, Pump.fun’s official token has hit a new all-time low (ATL), reaching the $0.0028 area and dropping below the $1 billion market capitalization for the first time since its initial Coin Offering (ICO). Pump.fun was launched in January 2024 to facilitate and simplify the deployment of tokens. The Solana-based platform quickly became the leading memecoin launchpad in the crypto market, fueling this cycle’s memecoin frenzy. According to Dune data, the launchpad has deployed nearly 12 million tokens over the last 18 months and generated a Total Revenue of over $775 million. After announcing its official token in early June, the platform’s PUMP rollout had a bumpy road, as its official X account was suspended mid-month. The token’s public sale was also pushed nearly three weeks from its original June 25 date. Nonetheless, Pump.fun recorded a highly successful sale two weeks ago, raising $600 million in just 12 minutes. Two days after its launch, PUMP surged around 70% from its ICO price, reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $0.0068 on July 16. Since then, investors have seen a 57.9% price drop, with 25% of its decline occurring in the past 24 hours. The violent correction has been partially fueled by the recent update of PUMP’s upcoming airdrop. In the token announcement, Pump.fun stated that an airdrop was “coming soon,” but didn’t offer further details. On Wednesday night, the platform’s co-founder, Alon Cohen, confirmed that there will be a token airdrop but revealed it “is not going to take place in the near future,” which ignited massive backlash from the community and sent the token into its current nosedive. Community Slams Pump.fun Team Several X users have expressed their concerns and discontent with Pump.fun’s team, with some claiming that it is “easily one of the worst charts out right now” as “PUMP is trading like the devs already gave up.” Another user stated that “the way PUMP is performing post-TGE is 100% on the team. Only in crypto you can sell a ‘utility coin’ for $1.3B in cash and a week later no one still has a clue what those utilities even are lol.” Some community members remain hopeful that the cryptocurrency will reverse. Market watcher Bren Trades considers that “The crowd is grave dancing on PUMP. Just like they did with PENGU And we saw how that played out.” He noted that “If you’ve been here for a while, you know these post-launch dump outs are commonplace.” Meanwhile, crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa wrote on X that “joking aside, I actually do think that PUMP bottoms relatively soon. I am expecting some sort of giga crime pump eventually.” Legal Drama Intensifies In January, Burwick Law filed a class-action lawsuit against the platform, alleging it acted as an unregistered securities exchange. According to the original complaint, users have suffered massive losses due to their tokens’ price plunging after the hype died down. On Wednesday, the law firm filed an amended lawsuit in the Southern District of New York against the platform and some of its Solana partners, including Solana Labs, the Solana Foundation, Jito Labs, and the Jito Foundation. Related Reading: Ethereum Ready For $3,800 Reclaim Despite Rejection – Third Time’s The Charm? The new complaint escalates the extent of the allegations, claiming that the defendants have extracted over $5.5 billion from customers through schemes, and seeking rescission of Pump.fun transactions and compensatory damages. As of this writing, PUMP is trading at $0.0028, a 26.6% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com Source: newsbtc.com (Read Full Article)

Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below the $120,000 mark, exhibiting restrained momentum despite previous rallies that pushed it to all-time highs above $123,000. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has fluctuated between a low of $117,422 and a high of $119,197, ultimately trading at $118,578 at the time of writing. While price movement has remained relatively stable, on-chain indicators suggest that broader market sentiment is still in a transitional phase, with neither excessive enthusiasm nor panic selling present among investors. Related Reading: Are Traders Walking Into a Bitcoin Bull Trap at $118K? Here’s What the Data Shows Bitcoin Market Signals Suggest Ongoing Expansion Phase A recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlights a key development in the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI), a composite tool used to track phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle. According to Gaah, the IBCI has returned to the “Distribution” zone, an area historically associated with the late stages of a bull market. However, this return is moderate, as the index has reached only 80% of the zone’s upper boundary, falling short of the full saturation levels typically observed at major market peaks. The IBCI’s moderate level indicates that Bitcoin is in an expansionary stage, but without the typical signs of overheating. Gaah noted that two critical components of the IBCI, the Puell Multiple and the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), remain below their midpoint levels. This suggests that short-term speculation and aggressive profit-taking, often seen in late-stage bull markets, have not yet fully emerged in the current cycle. As a result, while caution may be warranted, the broader trend does not yet resemble a typical market top. The Puell Multiple, in particular, continues to hover near the “Discount” range, indicating that miner profitability remains moderate even with Bitcoin’s recent all-time high. This points to a valuation structure where network participants have not yet entered the excess phase that typically precedes a market correction. Gaah emphasized that the current state of the IBCI reflects underlying market strength supported by fundamentals, not speculative fervor. However, he also warned that the market is in a high-risk correction zone in the short term and should be monitored closely for shifts in retail behavior and miner activity. Short-Term Holders Offer Support Around Realized Price Adding to the discussion, another CryptoQuant analyst, Amr Taha, observed that Bitcoin has maintained price stability near the realized price of the UTXO Age Band for 1-day to 1-week holders, currently around $118,300. This metric is often interpreted as a dynamic support level that reflects the average cost basis for recent buyers. According to Taha, the absence of capitulation among newer holders implies that recent market entrants remain confident, reinforcing the current price range as a psychological and technical support zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hovers Below $120K as On-Chain Indicators Point to Slowing Demand Together, these insights suggest that while Bitcoin may face near-term volatility, broader indicators do not yet reflect an overheated market. Instead, current metrics imply a market that continues to expand at a measured pace, with room for potential upside if fundamentals remain intact. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView Source: newsbtc.com (Read Full Article)