As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to set new all-time highs (ATH) – reaching $123,218 on Binance on July 13 – on-chain data reveals a shift in holder behavior that could threaten the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum. Bitcoin Holder Rotation May Derail Rally According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor IT Tech, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) – those holding BTC for over 155 days – have transitioned into net distribution, suggesting seasoned investors are engaging in profit-taking. Meanwhile, short-term holders (STH) – those who have held BTC for less than 155 days — have recently turned net positive, indicating they are buying into BTC’s current rally in anticipation of further gains. Historical data shows that similar trends among LTH and STH were observed back in April 2021 and November 2023. During both these instances, BTC witnessed a cooling phase or a local top when spot demand faded. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Spike After $123,000 Peak – Signs Of Short-Term Cooling? In their analysis, IT Tech suggested keeping an eye on exchange inflows and funding rates for confirmation. If spot BTC inflows to crypto exchanges surge, it could hint that sell-pressure is likely to increase, which may derail the digital asset’s bullish trajectory. Supporting this view, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain noted that the Spent Output Value Ranges (SOVR) indicator shows a spike in BTC transfers to exchanges from wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC – typically associated with whales. For the uninitiated, the SOVR indicator tracks on-chain BTC transfers by value buckets to identify which investor segments are active. It helps reveal whether retail, mid-sized, or institutional players are driving market activity. This aligns with IT Tech’s observations on long-term holders. If selling pressure intensifies, BTC could correct down to a support level near $111,800. Not All Analysts See Rally Exhaustion Although Bitcoin LTH entering distribution phase, and whales increasing their deposits to crypto exchanges may point toward a potential end for the current rally, not all analysts share the same sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Spikes Without Price Drop – Strong Demand Or Delayed Reaction? For instance, the STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) suggests BTC may still be undervalued, indicating potential for further upside. If that holds, Bitcoin could climb as high as $150,000 before any major pullback. Additionally, a fresh injection of $2 billion in liquidity to major crypto derivatives platforms could help reignite bullish momentum. However, caution remains warranted. The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has been climbing steadily, giving early signs of an overheated market. At press time, BTC trades at $118,754, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com Source: newsbtc.com (Read Full Article)

Tom Lee devoted a six-post thread on X yesterday to a single proposition: if companies treat Ethereum (ETH) the way MicroStrategy treats bitcoin, the token price need only follow the mathematics of balance-sheet absorption to reach roughly $30,000. Lee’s argument rests on the mechanics he says really powered MicroStrategy’s spectacular equity rerating. From 11 August 2020 through today the software company’s shares climbed from $13 to about $455, a 35-fold gain. Only eleven of those thirty-five turns came from bitcoin’s own rise—roughly $11,000 to $118,000 in the same period—while twenty-five turns were created by “treasury strategy,” Lee wrote, meaning repeated financings that increased BTC per share even faster than the coin’s spot price. Ethereum To $30,000? Lee lists three moves that made the template work and, in his view, will be even more potent for ETH: issuing new stock above net-asset value to acquire more tokens, exploiting token volatility to lower borrowing costs, and relying on convertibles or preferred shares to cap dilution. Because ether’s realised volatility still exceeds bitcoin’s, Lee argues the cost of debt-and-option structures used to lever the treasury can be driven lower still, accelerating token accumulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Road To $10,000: Replay Of May’s Playbook Predicts Another Breakout In the same thread he reposted a chart showing that his own vehicle, BitMine Immersion Technologies, purchased four times more notional value in its first week of activity ($1 billion in ETH) than MicroStrategy bought in its first week of bitcoin purchases back in 2020. BitMine’s numbers illustrate the scale. A regulatory filing and follow-up press release on 17 July confirmed the company now holds 300,657 ETH—just over $1 billion at the time of publication—after closing a $250 million private placement on 8 July. Lee, who chairs BitMine’s board, said the firm is “well on our way to acquiring and staking five per cent of the overall ETH supply.” The second-largest treasurer is SharpLink Gaming, chaired by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin. On 17 July the company updated its SEC prospectus to increase the stock it can sell from $1 billion to $6 billion, saying proceeds will fund additional ETH purchases. SharpLink had already raised $413 million between 7 and 11 July and disclosed 280,706 ETH on its books as of 13 July, all but a few hundred of which are staked for yield. Related Reading: Ethereum Could Shoot Above $4,000 This Week, Predicts Analyst Bit Digital rounds out the trio. After a $172 million underwritten share sale on 7 July and the liquidation of 280 bitcoin, the Nasdaq-listed miner reported a treasury of 100,603 ETH and declared its intention to become “the pre-eminent ETH holding company in the world,” according to chief executive Sam Tabar. Taken together, the three firms now control roughly 682,000 ETH, or about half a per cent of the circulating supply, and each has active authorisations to issue more equity or debt expressly for ether accumulation. Lee insists the reflexive loop this creates—higher share prices providing ever-cheaper capital that buys still more token per share—can compress the time it takes for price to capture scarcity. Crypto analyst DCInvestor, responding to Lee’s thread, distilled the mathematics into a range: “Tom Lee basically calling for like $30-80K ETH. And some of you think we are gonna stop $1-2K after last cycle’s all-time high.” Ether changes hands today near $3,600. An eight-fold move to $30,000 would merely replicate the multiple that bitcoin logged between MicroStrategy’s first treasury purchase and its 2021 peak. The difference, Lee argues, is that MicroStrategy spent four years proving the model; Ethereum treasuries have taken less than two months to raise their first few billion dollars. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com Source: newsbtc.com (Read Full Article)